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DTMdiscussthemarket.com
RLD Relephant
12 Dec 2014
Re: Sadly probably best News of Tanzanian disinvestment was a big surprise and an initial disappointment. After all the time waiting for a Tanzanite mining turnaround it does seem a pity not to be around to share in this, if it happens. However after thinking about it a bit, I am now very much in favour of the deal. As a result I have made arrangements with my nominee broker to vote all my shares in favour. With $10.8m of liabilities (including possible additional taxes and royalties due to SA and Tanzanian authorities) plus the $5.1m purchase price and potentially up to an additional $1.2m payment from STAMICO if Tanzanite becomes sufficiently profitable again, the deal is worth $15.9-17.1m and we still have the Tanzanite Experience chain of stores. This is perhaps not an unreasonable price given that mine clearances still have to be completed and presumably there will also need to be significant capex (with RLD short of cash) to repair damaged mine shafts. There certainly have been a number of positive developments recently with continuing (albeit slow) mine clearances, govt finally talking about clamping down on smuggling and controlling sales, belated approval for use of XScan machines again etc. However without these actions by Govt, I doubt the company would have got a buyer prepared to pay such a price. Thus the deal to some extent does give some recognition to the future improved prospects for Tanzanite mining. RLD also no longer needs to find and spend more money rehabilitating recovered mine shafts in order to get production up and running. I recall an RNS indicating the damage to shafts caused by illegal miners was worse than expected. Where would RLD get the money from to undertake this work given current liabilities and lack of cash? Fact remains the company has had to deal with one problem after another in Tanzania (delay in renewing mining license and then only as 50% JV without cash payment up front and only for 10 years, banning of use of XScan machines for years despite independent assessors approving their use, the cut and polishing rule, lack of or very belated action to enforce the law against illegal miners, little done about the smuggling hammering tanzanite prices, problems with expat work permits etc.etc.) There can be no guarantee there would not be further problems on the horizon. Perhaps the lack of progress with graphite JV may have been due to authorities dragging their heels and maybe wanting to extract more from any JV deal with Kibaran; or Kibaran wanting to progress their Epanko deposit first? In Tanzania there seems to be a bit of resentment towards foreign investors and if Sky Associates have more Tanzanian's on board they may well have more success than RLD did. Until the 50% JV with STAMICO it appeared authorities were not prepared to enforce the law if this meant siding with a foreign owned company against local Tanzanian citizens and voters (the artisanal miners). Even then action by authorities was tardy and clearances are taking a long time.This deal if it gets all the necessary approvals, it will overnight turn the company from being financially distressed to once again having a healthy positive balance sheet with plenty of working capital. In addition the prospects for Sapphire mining seem reasonable given the increases in sapphire prices since the mine was last operational. If the company can develop a mine to market retail operation margins should increase. This would require setting up a cutting and polishing operation somewhere with skilled cutters and cheaper wages than in Australia and the company has experience of doing this before. If say average prices of A$4.5 to A$6/ct rough mined can be achieved on projected mining production; then back of the envelope projections suggest the company could well return to a reasonable level of profitability which no doubt would get reflected in rising share prices. Doing business in Tanzania has over the last few years been a nightmare and
FAST shedfull
12 Dec 2014
Re: P.G. He is now the sole owner of Maghreb is that correct
MTV stingray77
12 Dec 2014
Re: It's doomed to failure That's your view and you are fully entitled to hold it.Personally I don't think its aimed at commuters. America will be the biggest market where cable etc. costs mush more that over here, many people struggle with internet speed just like here so its a great alternative and there isn't the 10 second delay like you get watching over the internet.Over here will be a smaller market I think aimed at caravan users, fishermen those in the army etc. anyone who is regularly out of internet reception.There is also all the other things the company does this is not just a one trip pony but I'm sure you already know that.Anyway time will tell, by spring we will know if TTV has taken off and either you will be right or me.GLS
EPO CaptainMultibag
12 Dec 2014
One slide too many? It is clear that one (I think /Henderson) or more institutions has been providing price support at the 40p level when it slides down there. Presumabl it only takes one large holder to lose faith, sell into that price support, and the price will free-fall back toward 11p when Uberoi took over as 5x as many shares in issue.Core revenue to 30-6-14 was only c£7.5m. So valuation is at 25x core revenue. Baydonhill fx admin house was bought for c£5m is not worth more than that. When the price support is breached, this will drop like a stone i.e. price correction.Accounts said nothing about trading in first 3 months of this fiscal year to 30 June 2015. That silence is new. Dire warning signal. Interims 6m to 31 December 2014 are likely show revenue fall from 6m to 30 June 2014. That filthy news would test the price support, and likely bust it.EPO tanked 85% in 2009 having been puffed up, and is well set to do that again imho.
TOM in-vester
12 Dec 2014
Utah Minerals Program Checked there website and no more news and we already know.I can;t see penny shares recommendations affecting this,what do they know.
NOP Lupo di mare
12 Dec 2014
Re: Some OPEC comment There's no way that the fall in the price of oil is going to do anything but harm to NOP - in the short term. But looking at the effect on the global economy, I'd say that the fall has come at just the right time; so that's good news for those looking to the medium to long term - in respect of oil prices.Looking at supply and demand, it's going to be a year or so before equilibrium - barring the unforeseen.So NOP are possibly going to hold back on the summer programme. Still, at least there's no debt.It gives me no pleasure to recognise that the (today's) share price of Hurricane Energy is 63% lower than when Sav placed his bet, against NOP's 53% fall. Early days, and a major might yet take-out Hurricane for all I know. But that's a bit of a gamble.Just relieved that NOP is such a small % of my portfolio, and getting smaller by the day - lol!!
EPO CaptainMultibag
12 Dec 2014
Re: Audit problems? Management options run for 7 or 8 years so it is wrong to suggest they were running out. Thew Diurector o finance sold 40% of his options shares as he was happy to take 41p for those option shares. He holds no shares so selling 40% was a big exit for him. Ex management have been bailing through the year from their options. Signs of low or no confidence in current valuation.
TOM Franconia
12 Dec 2014
Re: share price Yes maybe it is just RHPS followers. Wht on earth anyone would sell out at .265 though??!!Looks to be bouncing a little and I not that IG will not accept on line orders to open - close only...
TOM olivesover
12 Dec 2014
Re: share price Understand from post on LSE that Red Hot Penny Share have dumped TOM from their portfolio...Not sure that would have significant effect on the SP.... Does anyone take notice of them anymore?Very strange.....
FAST White stick Investments
12 Dec 2014
P.G. As the Maghreb is an area inc. most of western N. Africa . It is not unreasonable to assume that P.G. in his co. Pan Maghreb will be active there now. P
LEK MacPithy
12 Dec 2014
Curiously Just looked at relative Market Caps at approx at £420 mill Afren is just 4.5 times Lek's £90 mill ???Afren under valued???
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