Tullow Oil Live Discussion

TexDrilla 26 Jul 2018

Report on 2018 exploration wells EDISON - Exploration watch - 2018 exploration wells [link] ocean rig poseidon.png1325x665 919 KB …interesting report on high Impact Exploration wells to watch in 2018 including Tullows and Chariots wells in Namibia beginning in September 2018 (p.3-5). Good summary why there is such huge gap in chance of success. Chariots prospect S (COS 29%) has been massively derisked by the Wingat and Murombe well drilled in 2013, whereas Tullows Cormorant prospect (COS 15%) “is at the limit of the amplitude variation with offset (AVO) window and cannot be de-risked further without drilling.” Very exciting well for Chariot who curretly owns 65% in prospect S with a partnering process underway but wanting to remain the operator. 20-bagger potential in the success case. GLA

brummell 27 Jun 2018

Then there were two Still two shorts but now down to 2.17%. Linden is up .02% to 0.90% and Key Group Holdings (Cayman), Ltd. are down from 1.39% to 1.27%. Slowly, slowly.

brummell 18 Jun 2018

Then there were two Still two declared short positions but now down to 2.27% with Linden having reduced to 0.88% on Friday. That 2.27% adds up to about 31.6 million shares though, so plenty of scope for those pro trader hacks to keep working away to give us more great buying opportunities. Still hate this new bb though.

brummell 08 Jun 2018

Then there were two We're down to just two declared short positions now. Capital Fund Management fell below the 0.5% declaration threshold on 06/06/2018. The laggards are Key Group at 1.39% and Linden at 0.91%

brummell 03 Jun 2018

India This is likely to see ONGC leading the acquisition rush if the oil price remains high or goes higher:[link]

brummell 01 Jun 2018

FTSE100? Is TLW heading back to the FTSE100 this year? I make it that it will need a share price in the £3.20's as things stand. It has put on around 60p since March. With potentially plenty of good news to come it could make it by September. If the index tracking funds think so they will start buying well in advance to beat the rush. Weir Group is already back and it is logical that services would pick up before the explorers. The rights issue with more shares AND an increase in share price got it off the blocks.

elliottsilverman 01 Jun 2018

*Value of oil*...Dear brummell, I find your postings on this board usually very knowledgeable and helpful with respect to the various factors affecting TLW and the oil market in general. Thanks for the link about the coming sulfur restriction also. I am wondering though about this whole business of the sulfur content, the grades of oil and what producers will stand to benefit or otherwise. According to Wikipedia (granted, it is not infallible) …“Shale oil serves best for producing middle-distillates such as kerosene, jet fuel, and diesel fuel. Worldwide demand for these middle distillates, particularly for diesel fuels, increased rapidly in the 1990s and 2000s. However, appropriate refining processes equivalent to hydrocracking can transform shale oil into a lighter-range hydrocarbon (gasoline).”… This seems to contradict what you are saying about the US production(?) Is there a contradiction here or am I misinformed and or misunderstanding? Great to hear any opinions on this…

brummell 01 Jun 2018

Re: Short positions mrs murf, I assume that you have switched to the long side now.

brummell 01 Jun 2018

Value of oil Another indication that all oil is not equal, this time relating to sulphur content:---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- [link] the 0.5 percent limit is not postponed and goes into effect 21 months from now, the price of shipping fuel could increase by as much as 30 percent.That could lift crude oil prices to $150 per barrel, from about $60 today. Something similar happened a decade ago, when a European Union mandate for low-sulfur diesel fuel coincided with an unexpected decrease in the supply of crude needed to produce it: In 18 months, diesel prices rose to $4.60 a gallon, from $2.50, and crude prices went up to nearly $145 per barrel, from $55.The oil market has also shifted in the two years since the IMO decided to move ahead with the 0.5-percent limit -- in ways that exacerbate the problem. OPEC members and Russia have agreed to restrain output. And both Venezuelan and Canadian heavy-crude producers are having trouble getting their barrels to market. The U.S. is producing more oil from fracking, but this contains little of the medium-, heavy- and extra heavy-grade crudes that yield the kind of residual fuel oil that can be converted to low-sulfur distillates."[link] to Rick Joswick, managing director for downstream oil analytics at Platts, the forward curve for middle distillates currently shows little change between 2019 and 2020—underestimating the impact of the new rules.“The market has not appreciated yet the degree and scope of these changes,” Joswick said."---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Low sulphur, or "sweet" crude, contains 0.50% sulphur or lessPretty well all of TLW's production is low sulphur:[link]

MrSmurf 30 May 2018

Re: Short positions Interesting article written by reuters which seems to suggest that OPEC and Russia aren't in any rush to increase supplies / change their strategy. [link] surprise there. After all the efforts to balance the market over the past couple of years? Any decisions they decide on will be to make more profit. I do believe there will still be volatility in the very short term whilst the traders secure their bonuses for the year. The Shell's and BPs are openly struggling with reserves replacement. Tullow are sitting on some tasty projects and everyday that passes they are getting closer to lifting the black stuff from the ground. I find the herd mentality mildly amusing. Fear. panic and impatience. Tullow were lucky to survive and there were some nifty deals done which appear fabulous in hindsight. I would love to see more stability in the SP and the shorters following the lovely Odey towards the exit...

MrSmurf 29 May 2018

Re: Short positions Thank youb Bummell. I respect you sharing your research and providing balance. Most of the analysts seem to be changing their views on a daily basis, and outlets such as oilprice com seem to e resorting to sensationalism with their use of adjectives.I agree - we can expect a lot of Oil Price volatility. Still a large swathe of PI pockets to be picked, weak and fearful to be shaken out, and plenty of shares to be snatched from the impatient. The poor econimics, quality of oil and lifespans of the shale fields is becoming more and more transparent. As is the rising global oil demand. I am certainly planning to sit patiently and reap the benefits of my Tullow investment in years to come. The shorters will no doubt have further opportunities to exit and I'm sure they have already commenced closing out their positions. I remain impressed by the quality of Tullow's assets and their management team. Although debt will be their priority at the moment whilst the FCF is high, I believe they won't be sitting on their hands with respect to new opportunities and quick wins. I await the next operational update with great anticipation.

brummell 29 May 2018

Re: Short positions And Linden reduced their short again on Friday from 0.93% to 0.88% leaving the total on todays list at 2.94%.

brummell 29 May 2018

Re: Recent shenanigans fao bummell But if you've got your own strategy and it pays off you're right all of the time.Short term risk is high with OPEC and Russia oil production uncertainties, although they are unlikely to make up for Venezuela's collapse; political uncertainties like Italy, short term Brexit influences, multi-faceted Trump problems and plenty more. Longer term it will all pass but right now short tem trading is about as close to gambling as you can get imho, which is perhaps why some are so tetchy at the moment.

Cashman103 29 May 2018

Re: Recent shenanigans fao bummell Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day

brummell 29 May 2018

Re: Recent shenanigans fao bummell MrSmurf, I have a humble opinion, that's all. If it helps other people's research that's good. If they disagree that's also good. The only comment I have at the moment is that we are seeing the predicted volatility in the oil price. My own view, as I've often said, is long term. TLW's share price will continue to follow the oil price with the leverage applied by those who can trade with lots of other people's money.