Re: Short positions Obviously our short friends don't see much downside from here for TLW. Today's FCA list shows the declared short positions down to 4.81%. Stepping aside for the longs before the rush starts?
Re: Rig count An interesting article here:[link] offshore oil which suffered from slashed investments during the downturn is now coming back with projects that have improved economics, in some cases challenging those of U.S. shale. Thats due to the costs that major oil companies slashed after 2014, to simpler designs, and to the supermajors reshaping portfolios and projects to make as much money at $60 Brent as they were making at $100 Brent four years ago."If that is so then it doesn't take much imagination to foresee effect of the Saudi cuts mentioned in my previous post on the oil industry, especially TLW which is OK at $50 Brent.
Re: Rig count The Saudis look to be chasing a higher oil price pre the Aramco float. If the market predictions pan out it may not persuade the potential Aramco investors to pay a higher price in view of the longer term predictions here:[link] it would certainly lead to higher oil prices and a boost for the rest of the industry in the short to medium term.
Re: Really would be better if It does look like that someone miss the boat of the last week 170p low and wants it lower than that now.the chart says is leveling at bottom and now rising
Rig count Haven't gone away, just bored with crude oil and the way it's price is being kept down. The market is starting to ignore the rig count with their big increases , remember we were told that wells can be drilled in half the time with new technology ...At least all the hype of electric vehicles has pulled back to a more realistic time frame. It will happen as oil shoots up..............Elon Musk flamethrower was a strange one........but you have to give him credit for Spacex Falcon launch..... Tesla still in big trouble.
Re: Really would be better if I think if WTI closes today above 61.6 I think that it's set to rise again. Always a difficult balance between patience and missing out.
Re: Really would be better if Im not so sure i think a retest of 160s needs to happen to wash out the weak holders also oil fall needs to hit $55
Re: Drilling in Ghana Good to see TLW getting busy after the border dispute delays. The main reason for the caution of the rating agencies has been TLW's dependence on Ghana but that also provides many synergies in the area that the company can now take advantage of. The reduction of risk, the reduction of debt, the increased geographical spread of production and prospects and the recovery of oil over the next year or so will return it to the high ratings it had previously. The agencies have never been critical of TLW's wider performance. A good recovery scenario all round.
Drilling in Ghana [link]
Re: Really would be better if I guessed at the possibility of oil dipping again in a previous post. If you subscribe to the economic war theory it makes sense in the lead up to the Aramco launch, especially following a period of hedging opportunity. The next IEA report is out next week but the current report says:"The oil market is clearly tightening; in the three consecutive quarters 2Q17-4Q17 OECD crude stocks fell by an average of 630 kb/d; such a threesome has happened rarely in modern history: examples include 1999 (prices doubled), 2009 (prices increased by nearly $20/bbl), and 2013 (prices increased by $6/bbl). Since the nadir for Brent crude in June when the price was $45/bbl, the 2017 OECD crude draws have coincided with a price increase for Brent of nearly $25/bbl."The latest drop is due to a claimed increase in the US rig count but the conundrum of US oil continues. All other things being equal, as US production increases then so its profitability decreases in that boom an bust cycle. The hope for US crude must be that both Saudi and Venezuelan oil output will collapse and that looks increasingly likely with a low oil price.Meanwhile TLW is in an excellent position to ride out further storms,
Re: Really would be better if I got 147 pencilled in as oil falls back to the $54-55 area which was previous resistance.
Re: Tullow takeover target ???????? The fall in stock markets around the world is due to rising interest rates. Money is also coming out of the bond markets. It's hard to tell yet whether the stock market is just correcting or going in to a bear market. If the FED persists on increasing interest rates by much more after their latest tax cuts we will probably have seen the top of the 9 years bull market in stocks.Do you know what a bull market or bear market is?
Really would be better if price doesn't close below 181. If it does, it brings 175 into play and that doesn't look like very strong support (in fact it's the kind of support that fails more often than it holds in my experience), if price got that low and 175 didn't hold then 162/163 looks easily possible on the rising trendline on the daily. I still think it's important not to lose sight fo the gap down to 129-131 area from January 2016. Looks to me as though the next few days and the POO are very important here.
Africa Oil Presentation, Feb 2018 The usual good Africa Oil Presentation, Feb 2018 plenty on Kenya[link] Kenya Ops update of yesterdayKenya Operations UpdateView News Release in PDF FormatVANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Feb. 7, 2018) - Africa Oil Corp. ("Africa Oil", "AOC" or the "Company" (TSX:AOI) (OMX:AOI) is pleased to provide the following update on activities in the South Lokichar basin (Blocks 10BB and 13T in Kenya). AOC has a 25% working interest in Blocks 10BB and 13T with Tullow Oil plc (50% and Operator) and Maersk Olie og Gas A/S (25%) holding the remaining interests (collectively, the "Joint Venture Partners".The Joint Venture Partners have proposed to the Government of Kenya that the Amosing and Ngamia fields be developed as the initial stage of the South Lokichar development. This phase of the development is planned to include a 60,000 to 80,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) Central Processing Facility (CPF) and an export pipeline to Lamu, some 750 kilometers from the South Lokichar basin on the Kenyan coast. This approach is expected to bring significant benefits as it enables an early Final Investment Decision (FID) of the Amosing and Ngamia fields taking full advantage of the current low-cost environment for both the field and infrastructure development, as well as providing the best opportunity to deliver first oil in a timeline that meets the Government of Kenya expectations. The installed infrastructure can then be utilized for the optimization of the remaining and yet to be discovered South Lokichar oil fields, allowing the incremental development of these fields to be completed in an efficient and low cost manner post first oil.The initial stage is planned to include 210 wells through 18 well pads at Ngamia and 70 wells through seven well pads at Amosing, with a planned plateau rate of 60,000 to 80,000 bopd. Additional stages of development are expected to increase plateau production to 100,000 bopd or greater. It is anticipated that Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) for the initial stage will commence in 2018, with FID targeted for 2019 and first oil in 2021/22.A total of six appraisal wells have been drilled at the Amosing field, ten at Ngamia, three at Etom and two at Ekales. Additionally, extended well tests, water injection tests, well interference tests and water-flood trials have been undertaken, all of which have proved invaluable for planning the development of the oil fields. Tullow Oil plc has released (February 7, 2018) their updated assessment of resources in the South Lokichar basin. Details of Africa Oil's most recent independent assessment of contingent resources in the South Lokichar basin are contained in the Company's press release dated May 10, 2016. The Company intends to have an updated independent resource evaluation in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101" completed following the completion of the water injectivity and associated production testing planned for the first half of 2018.Early Oil Pilot Scheme (EOPS)An agreement between the Joint Venture Partners and the Government of Kenya was signed on March 14, 2017 allowing all EOPS upstream contracts to be awarded. Initial injectivity testing has started at Ngamia-11 and oil production and water injection facilities are being constructed in the field, which are expected to be ready to commence production/injection in the first quarter of 2018. Oil produced is being initially stored until all necessary consents and approvals are granted and work is completed for the transfer of crude oil to Mombasa by road.Africa Oil CEO Keith Hill commented, "We are pleased that the Joint Venture has now agreed on an optimized plan to move forward with the South Lokichar Basin development, which will allow acceleration of a crude export pipeline through Northern Kenya. This development wil
TLW Turnaround? [link] Oil (LSE: TLW) released its annual results today, with chief executive Paul McDade saying the FTSE 250 firm made excellent progress in 2017. As a result, it posted its first annual operating profit in three years.The shares are up 2% at 187p, as Im writing, giving the company a market capitalisation of £2.6bn. This is still well below the valuation it once commanded. In an improved oil price environment and after todays results, is Tullow a top turnaround buy?Improving performance and bright futureThe Africa-focused groups revenue of $1.72bn was 36% ahead of 2016, as its working interest production surged 32% to an average of 94,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).Despite $682m of write-offs and impairments, it managed a small operating profit of $22m, although after net finance costs of $310m and a tax credit of $111m, the statutory bottom-line was a loss of $189m. However, with the write-offs and impairments being non-cash items, the cash flow picture was considerably better: the company generated free cash flow of $543m.Tullow got through the oil rout with a millstone of debt, helped by supportive lenders. Net debt remains relatively high at $3.5bn but is falling and is now only just above managements target level of below 2.5 times EBITDAX (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, depletion, amortisation and exploration expenses).Looking ahead to 2018, the company has guided on production of between 86,000 and 95,000 boepd. City analysts are forecasting earnings per share (EPS) of around $0.20 (14.4p at current exchange rates), giving a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13. This looks an undemanding rating to me as I see scope for production upgrades this year, while the companys valuable development and exploration assets bode well for the longer term. As such, I rate Tullow an attractive buy