Report on 2018 exploration wells 29% COS Wingat Well (2013) “The information obtained, coupled with the results of preliminary studies of all data collected from the well, allowed HRT to identify two well-developed source rocks, which are rich in organic carbon and both are within the oil-generating window. Also, the well encountered several thin-bedded-sandy reservoirs that are saturated by oil. HRT collected four samples of this oil, each of 450cc, and the analysis of these samples indicated the presence of light oil, 38o to 42o API, with minimal contamination. The fact that the source rock is in the oil window and generating liquid hydrocarbons of excellent quality confirms the source potential of the basin.” “Prospect S sits in 1,650m of water in PEL 71 to the south of Wingat and Murombe. It is due to be drilled from mid-October 2018 by operator Chariot (65%) and partners AziNam (20%), NAMCOR (10%) and a Namibian BEE component of 5%. The well will target gross mean prospective resource of 459mmbbls independently assessed by NSAI, and is one of five, four-way, dip-closed structures identified by Chariot in the Upper Cretaceous turbidite fairway…The Murombe well encountered good-quality sands above the primary target and Prospect S will target these Cretaceous sands, which are draped over a volcanic structure at this Location…The thick, rich and mature Aptian source rock found in Wingat and Murombe has a characteristic seismic signature, which Chariot sees in its own licence at the same depth and so has inferred to be mature here. Prospect S has the lowest risk of the five identified four-way dip closures with a COS of 29% (the COS of remaining prospects T,U,V and W ranges between 22% and 25%). The key risks are in the source and reservoir, which have been established in Wingat and Murombe.”
Tullow Half Year Results Another excellent half year report from TLW. tullowoil.com tullow-oil-plc---2018-half-year-results---final.pdf 1443.07 KB The 2018 HALF year results compared to the 2017 FULL year results below: Revenue 2017 full yr $1,723m - 2018 half yr $905m After tax 2017 full yr LOSS $189m - 2018 half yr PROFIT $55m Free cash flow 2017 full yr $543m - 2018 half yr free cash flow $401m Gearing 2017 2.6x - gearing 2018 2.0x Net debt 2017 $3.5bn - net debt 2018 $3.082bn Recovery underway.
Tullow Looks To ‘Restock’ Portfolio By Stepping Up Exploration Exploration & Production – 25 Jul 18 Tullow Looks To ‘Restock’ Portfolio By Stepping Up Exploration The company has identified prospects offshore Guyana, Suriname, Namibia and Mauritania among others.
Report on 2018 exploration wells EDISON - Exploration watch - 2018 exploration wells [link] ocean rig poseidon.png1325x665 919 KB …interesting report on high Impact Exploration wells to watch in 2018 including Tullows and Chariots wells in Namibia beginning in September 2018 (p.3-5). Good summary why there is such huge gap in chance of success. Chariots prospect S (COS 29%) has been massively derisked by the Wingat and Murombe well drilled in 2013, whereas Tullows Cormorant prospect (COS 15%) “is at the limit of the amplitude variation with offset (AVO) window and cannot be de-risked further without drilling.” Very exciting well for Chariot who curretly owns 65% in prospect S with a partnering process underway but wanting to remain the operator. 20-bagger potential in the success case. GLA
Then there were two Still two shorts but now down to 2.17%. Linden is up .02% to 0.90% and Key Group Holdings (Cayman), Ltd. are down from 1.39% to 1.27%. Slowly, slowly.
Then there were two Still two declared short positions but now down to 2.27% with Linden having reduced to 0.88% on Friday. That 2.27% adds up to about 31.6 million shares though, so plenty of scope for those pro trader hacks to keep working away to give us more great buying opportunities. Still hate this new bb though.
Then there were two We're down to just two declared short positions now. Capital Fund Management fell below the 0.5% declaration threshold on 06/06/2018. The laggards are Key Group at 1.39% and Linden at 0.91%
India This is likely to see ONGC leading the acquisition rush if the oil price remains high or goes higher:[link]
FTSE100? Is TLW heading back to the FTSE100 this year? I make it that it will need a share price in the £3.20's as things stand. It has put on around 60p since March. With potentially plenty of good news to come it could make it by September. If the index tracking funds think so they will start buying well in advance to beat the rush. Weir Group is already back and it is logical that services would pick up before the explorers. The rights issue with more shares AND an increase in share price got it off the blocks.
*Value of oil*...Dear brummell, I find your postings on this board usually very knowledgeable and helpful with respect to the various factors affecting TLW and the oil market in general. Thanks for the link about the coming sulfur restriction also. I am wondering though about this whole business of the sulfur content, the grades of oil and what producers will stand to benefit or otherwise. According to Wikipedia (granted, it is not infallible) …“Shale oil serves best for producing middle-distillates such as kerosene, jet fuel, and diesel fuel. Worldwide demand for these middle distillates, particularly for diesel fuels, increased rapidly in the 1990s and 2000s. However, appropriate refining processes equivalent to hydrocracking can transform shale oil into a lighter-range hydrocarbon (gasoline).”… This seems to contradict what you are saying about the US production(?) Is there a contradiction here or am I misinformed and or misunderstanding? Great to hear any opinions on this…
Re: Short positions mrs murf, I assume that you have switched to the long side now.
Value of oil Another indication that all oil is not equal, this time relating to sulphur content:---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- [link] the 0.5 percent limit is not postponed and goes into effect 21 months from now, the price of shipping fuel could increase by as much as 30 percent.That could lift crude oil prices to $150 per barrel, from about $60 today. Something similar happened a decade ago, when a European Union mandate for low-sulfur diesel fuel coincided with an unexpected decrease in the supply of crude needed to produce it: In 18 months, diesel prices rose to $4.60 a gallon, from $2.50, and crude prices went up to nearly $145 per barrel, from $55.The oil market has also shifted in the two years since the IMO decided to move ahead with the 0.5-percent limit -- in ways that exacerbate the problem. OPEC members and Russia have agreed to restrain output. And both Venezuelan and Canadian heavy-crude producers are having trouble getting their barrels to market. The U.S. is producing more oil from fracking, but this contains little of the medium-, heavy- and extra heavy-grade crudes that yield the kind of residual fuel oil that can be converted to low-sulfur distillates."[link] to Rick Joswick, managing director for downstream oil analytics at Platts, the forward curve for middle distillates currently shows little change between 2019 and 2020underestimating the impact of the new rules.The market has not appreciated yet the degree and scope of these changes, Joswick said."---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Low sulphur, or "sweet" crude, contains 0.50% sulphur or lessPretty well all of TLW's production is low sulphur:[link]
Re: Short positions Interesting article written by reuters which seems to suggest that OPEC and Russia aren't in any rush to increase supplies / change their strategy. [link] surprise there. After all the efforts to balance the market over the past couple of years? Any decisions they decide on will be to make more profit. I do believe there will still be volatility in the very short term whilst the traders secure their bonuses for the year. The Shell's and BPs are openly struggling with reserves replacement. Tullow are sitting on some tasty projects and everyday that passes they are getting closer to lifting the black stuff from the ground. I find the herd mentality mildly amusing. Fear. panic and impatience. Tullow were lucky to survive and there were some nifty deals done which appear fabulous in hindsight. I would love to see more stability in the SP and the shorters following the lovely Odey towards the exit...
Re: Short positions Thank youb Bummell. I respect you sharing your research and providing balance. Most of the analysts seem to be changing their views on a daily basis, and outlets such as oilprice com seem to e resorting to sensationalism with their use of adjectives.I agree - we can expect a lot of Oil Price volatility. Still a large swathe of PI pockets to be picked, weak and fearful to be shaken out, and plenty of shares to be snatched from the impatient. The poor econimics, quality of oil and lifespans of the shale fields is becoming more and more transparent. As is the rising global oil demand. I am certainly planning to sit patiently and reap the benefits of my Tullow investment in years to come. The shorters will no doubt have further opportunities to exit and I'm sure they have already commenced closing out their positions. I remain impressed by the quality of Tullow's assets and their management team. Although debt will be their priority at the moment whilst the FCF is high, I believe they won't be sitting on their hands with respect to new opportunities and quick wins. I await the next operational update with great anticipation.