Overshoot to the downside? Thanks for your thoughts Tony, they do echo my own in a lot of ways, obviously it’s impossible to know what’s going through the mind of the major institutional holders, but we will find out if an offer does come in. Update due on Wednesday, will be good to get a glimpse into what’s be going on behind the scenes.
Overshoot to the downside? Hi Beatley I have looked at quite a few metrics from calculating value from reserves and resources of oil using the 50%, 10% multiples on stages of discovery, to flowing barrels take over prices and comparison to asset sales of oil just in the ground and undeveloped. I arrive broadly at the same place of what is reasonable value. There are also prices of some assets like in Uganda were no tax would be due up to 516M than it gets slammed really hard with CGT and its like that in several Africa countries. I would not see that price as hostile if it was from Total or a company of that size. Tullow would be able to pay back all its bond funders and quite a few institutions would be able to de-risk most of their portfolios and see it as a means to invest perhaps less in oil in their institutional funds. I think a vote to accept at 105p for a takeover would prove quite strong and allow the new buyer to deliver what Tullow found and built to date. All the above is just opinion. Tony
Overshoot to the downside? How are you working out your takeover price, Tony? The big question is, would the board recommend an offer to shareholders around at that price?! That’s 30% less than the rights issue price just a few years ago. Maybe the potential buyers would go hostile?! Personally, I think many holders would jump at £1 based on the destruction of shareholder value over the last few year. I’d very much support one, but being a recent holder that’s easy for me to say, I’m sure there are lots with much higher averages that would like to give the board the chance to turn it around. Potential takeover aside, what are you expecting with the outcome of the review on Wednesday? The business is in a tricky situation, they’ve got some fantastic assets but with a huge debt pile that based on the numbers they’ve given us won’t be paid back at maturity. Net debt to EBITDA is climbing with with the lower production base and they’ve got massive trust issues. If they’re going to turn this around it’s going to take some bold moves that’s for sure.
Overshoot to the downside? I held a small position at 144p and was caught out on 9 December. I have slowly averaged with a few buys to be sub 75p. I am holding off until the report but like those above I just can not see this company not being fully taken over. I have worked out a takeover price around the 100-103p mark which seemed reasonable when compared with other takeovers but no two oil companies are really the same.
Overshoot to the downside? Added a few more here, back up to 50% of the original purchase. I think it’s a terrible company, the corporate governance is utterly horrendous, when I new CEO comes in they need cull everyone that has been complicit in the lack of transparency that has destroyed the trust of shareholders. However, if there aren’t any right downs in the year end results this is simply too cheap. The board has send the reserves position is unaffected so if there is, it should only be minimal. You can’t have a company trading at 1/3rd of NAV without attracting interest. I find it hard to believe that given the interest in the acreage they have in Guyana that they won’t find a decent sized field at some point, my investment case isn’t based on that but it would be a nice to have. Looking at the accounts, G&A costs of $100m will likely be cut to the bone by the new CEO. Premier oil is now the right comparison in terms of market cap whose G&A costs are less than $10m a year. I’m short, resolve the corporate governance issues, maximise production, sell Kenya, farmout Uganda (same as lapsed deal), cut G&A costs and find oil in Guyana. Looking for 120p as a mid term hold.
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Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Share to Email App Share to LinkedIn African oil executive Samuel Dossou-Aworet has built up a stake of just over 7 per cent in Tullow Oil, taking advantage of as slump in the oil exploration group’s stock in the past five weeks. Mr Dossou-Aworet co-founded a pan-African exploration company called Energy Africa in 1994, which was acquired by Tullow Oil 15 years ago for $500 million (€448 million). The deal doubled the size of Tullow at the time, giving it assets from Ghana to Namibia along the west coast of Africa.
Buy 145.39 Sold 60.01. No we are establishing fair value, should create a nice trading range around 50-70p DYOR
MisterHarry Sliced the first of the two falling knives top ups on the 9th for 70p yesterday… Election result excitement maybe on 13th. What a difference a few days makes was kicking myself for to soon a buy. Now made a profit on the first one.
Overshoot to the downside? Apologies if posted elsewhere: [link]
Overshoot to the downside? Out for another 50% of remaining holding, still think there’s a good chance of takeover but can’t ignore a 30% return in 4 days.
Overshoot to the downside? Hi TheEcologist, Not sure what we differ on? I’m holding the other half for the very same reasons but have reduced my exposure due to the weakness with the bonds. The discount to NAV is huge so wouldn’t be surprised if rumours start to circulating about Total or others making an offer. If it doesn’t materialise over the next couple of months I’ll likely sell up, I have too many concerns to become a long-term holder.
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Overshoot to the downside? With respect, I will differ @Beatley. I have always believed that sooner or later Tullow would be swallowed by France’s Total. Now that its MC is only £740 million (same as AIM’s Hurricane, BTW) for 80,000 or so BOD plus Uganda (that Total has wanted for a while), I really believe it is just a matter of time until the bid comes in. I sold out in late 2018 but the sp crash this week was too good an opportunity to miss.
Overshoot to the downside? Bond were down again yesterday, which makes me worry much more than when the equity is down. Taken half off for a very good profit. Need to read the bond prospect to make sure I’m not missing anything with the covenants that is making the bonds react in this way.