Have they got the trace of Money flow, either sender or receiver can request their banks to trace the fund flow they will know where it's stuck
From OCT 18In the wake of a breakthrough partnership deal for the Barryroe project in Irelandâ€™s Celtic Sea, Providence Resources PLC (LONVR) has been tipped for very substantial value creation. A â€˜buyâ€™ recommendation from stockbroker Mirabaud Securities comes with an upgraded 50p price target (up from 33p), suggesting nearly 200% upside to the explorerâ€™s current price of 17.5p. Mirabaud analyst James Midgley described Providenceâ€™s new deal with Chinese partner APEC as â€œa major stepâ€ closer to the commercialization of Barryroe - a 350mln barrel field thatâ€™s barely being valued at its AIM share price. Current price barely prices in cash â€˜nâ€™carry â€œStill, at todayâ€™s share price Providence trades only marginally above the value of its net cash, plus capex carry (totalling c.14p/shr),â€ Midgley said in a note. â€œAccordingly, we consider the company to be in an almost unique position, offering deep value but with a clear roadmap to commercialisation, and further upside in the way of multi-billion barrel exploration alongside Major oil companies.â€ Midgley highlighted that the new 50p per share target still represents a 50% discount to the brokerâ€™s core net asset valuation for Barryroe - in other words, the brokerâ€™s core valuation actually prices the firm at around 100p. READ: Countdown starts for Barryroe as Providence inks binding partnership deal Beyond the core valuation, which focuses primarily on Barryroe, the analyst's total asset valuation also includes 40p of whatâ€™s described as â€œheavily riskedâ€ value for the Dunquin South and Newgrange prospects, located in Irelandâ€™s Atlantic Margin, off the west coast. For the marketâ€™s more speculative punters, it is probably worth noting that on an un-risked basis Midgley values the Barryroe stake at 152p while Dunquin South and Newgrange are ascribed values of 193p and 282p respectively. Mirabaudâ€™s total, un-risked valuation sees the company worth 631.2p. Providence, meanwhile, retains a material acreage position in the west coast frontier from which further exploration possibilities may be unearthed. Yet more upside for Providence? â€œAt under 20p per share, Providence shares are clearly trading at a substantial discount to where we consider fair value,â€ the analyst said. â€œWhile we expect the shares to trend towards the 100-140p per share mark, realistically we consider this a medium-term objective. â€œAccordingly, for now, we are recommending a near-term 50p per share target price, on the basis that we will reconsider as we approach the start of next yearâ€™s (Q2) drilling campaign. â€œWe would add that this target price offers nothing for Providenceâ€™s exploration position, which we consider one of the most prospective in the sector. Any progress in readying prospects for drilling could see the share price, and our target price, upgraded accordingly. Putting Barryroe on the path to production Septemberâ€™s binding partnership deal with APEC detailed a path to production, starting with an appraisal programme beginning next year. Together Providence, APEC and Lansdowne Oil & Gas Plc (LON:LOGP) will initially drill four new vertical wells and one horizontal sidetrack. APEC then has an option to extend the programme, to add a further two horizontal wells. In the current quarter, operations are being advanced to survey the proposed well sites. Rig mobilisation will begin in the second quarter of 2019 thus setting in motion a programme that, if successful, Barryroe will become Irelandâ€™s first commercial offshore oil project. Providence and Lansdowneâ€™s share of the programme costs are to be covered by a non-recourse funding facility, whereby Chinese funds will be provided and later returned through accelerated repayment (basically, the partner will receive a larger share of the early revenues). Post-appraisal development funding will be in focus â€œThe firm appraisal programme is expected to take some 200 days excluding testing, meaning that by early 2020, the partners should have gathered sufficient data to make a final investment decision and lodge a field development plan,â€ Mirabaudâ€™s Midgley said. He added: â€œassuming the horizontal well options are exercised, three wells will be already be drilled awaiting tie-in, meaning the bulk of the initial capex requirement will be on facilities (e.g. subsea manifolds - note we assume that the FPSO will be leased), which we estimate will cost in the region of US$250-500m (gross). â€œWith Providence retaining a 40% stake in the field, its share of upfront development capex would be just US$100-200m.â€ According to Midgely, Providence will have a number of options open to it - including reserves based lending, an extension of the APEC financing arrangements, or a further farm-down of Barryroe project equity. Providence is plainly on the cusp of a very active and catalyst rich period. Based on the present share price plus Mirabaudâ€™s target and valuation thereâ€™s, evidently, the potential for a great deal of upside available for investors. All eyes will be on next yearâ€™s drilling.
Things must be looking bad with An Taisce, so now we're moving in to the boiling water business all of a sudden.. Keeps the CEO in clover for another few more years of B. S.
Todays publish from Davys sees a value of 77p for Barryroe and 11.9 for other assets Link
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