RNS : big increase in holding Just out - Richard Sneller now has 8.92m shares, or above 8%. He's bought 2.15m shares since his last disclosure just 3 weeks ago.....[link]
Bought more at sub19 - on the way tom 100p Bought more this morning at sub 19p - very happy with developments and this is only the beginning of the journey to 100p. I have had this for long and kept on adding - time for payback for all of us. On Commercialisation and the allergens going live, I can see them as a takeover play as well but not much below the 100
Excellent news on CD4 and food intolerance division The numbers today although good are of less significance when compared to the outlook for ;1) Food intolerance - Global growth opportunity with significant opportunities in both North America and China to drive organic growth 2) 41 Allergens to be commercialised in the near future with a possible transformational impact on EPS. This number likely to grow to 120 if the company hits its target and3) The largest game changer of all - Commercialisation of CD4 - Should CD4 be successful in its field tests trials over the next 12 months and assuming production levels of 6-7m per year, then in such a scenario and at a price of around £5 per test we should see the stock trading at around 90p based on sector average multiples in my view. With downside limited due to the strength of the core business and upside of nearly 600% this is a must own name for any growth portfolio on AIM in my view. Buying more today.
Interview with CEO - very positive Bullish interview with the CEO in the Scottish Herald - note that Finncap have increased their forecasts, and that ODX are protected from Brexit due to their diverse overseas exports and beneficial impact from a weaker sterling:[link]
finnCap's note out today on research tree "Omega Diagnostics’ FY2016 results were in line with our expectations. Sales rose 5% (7% CER), driven by Food Intolerance (+19%) which offset expected declines in Allergy and Autoimmune and a flat Infectious Disease performance. We expect Allersys to launch in FY 2017. Moreover, there is a clearer roadmap to market for Visitect CD4, for which some of its technical challenges have seemingly been resolved. This enables management to invest more confidently for growth, which is reflected in our forecasts."
Pleasing results this morning ....with £1.35m PBT slightly ahead of both Finncap's and Edison's forecasts. EPS would have bee ahead too but for a small tax charge.Food intolerance is surging ahead and has big growth potential globally.Good news too from both Vistect and Allersys, and re the Indian manufacturing facility, where a malaria test is an opportunity for a third big winner.Almost £1m net cash is more than sufficient going forward given the core profitability.
RNS : fund manager buying more ODX Richard Sneller has increased beyond 6% with 6.765m shares:[link] remembering that Richard Sneller is a Fund Manager at Baillie Gifford, so should know his stuff more than most.
Encouraging new interview with CEO Here's a good interview with the CEO which hasn't been posted and which again shows not only growing confidence re CD4, but also global ambitions for the core business:[link] "Sales growth of food intolerance kits fuels overseas ambitions for Omega 22 Apr 2016 / Victoria Masterson OMEGA Diagnostics, the Clackmannanshire company that produces tests for allergies, food intolerance and infection diseases, said it was making progress on its long-awaited HIV test and that strong growth in its food intolerance business could fuel growth in China, India and North America.We're getting close to a final product but we've still got some work to do,â� said chief executive Andrew Shepherd of the portable HIV test, which is being modified to withstand very hot temperatures in sub-Saharan countries. âWeâre up to 32 degrees, so itâs now just getting that test to work up to 35 degrees. It still has a great demand, because there is no CD4 test that can go down to village levels or clinics in Africa.â� CD4 cells are a type of white blood cell that fight infection and indicate the health of a personâs immune system. In a trading update, Omega said its food Intolerance business â which sells a kit used by nutritionists and dieticians to test for 59 food intolerances and a lab test against 220 foods â had achieved its targeted double-digit revenue growth in the period, up 19 per cent to Â£7.1 million. However, its allergy business in Germany continued to decline as it saw a reduction in buying levels, hit by increased competition. Results for the year to 31 March 2016 are expected to be in line with expectations, with revenues 6 per cent ahead of last year at Â£12.7m and adjusted pre-tax profits in the range of Â£1.2m to Â£1.3m. The company said it had identified a âclear organic growth strategyâ for the next three to five years.We're pushing at a market thatâs still developing,â� said Mr Shepherd, who founded the business in 1987. âWeâre not doing a lot in China at the moment but thatâs a market thatâs growing very quickly. We recently got our products into India through our Indian subsidiary and thatâs another market with the potential for high growth. Another potential market is North America, were weâre doing very little at the moment. So there are a lot of good product markets out there and weâre very confident that growth will continue.â�House broker finnCap said the route to achieving further field trials for the HIV product was understood and closer. Omega is valued at Â£16m on London's Alternative Investment Market."
Indian expansion news Nice article about the expansion in India helped by Q-Pulse software from Ideagen (IDEA), which coincidentally I also hold![link] : Q-Pulse is the DNA for Omega Diagnostics Group's Indian expansion05/19/2016 | 113am CESTGovernance, risk and compliance software vendor, Ideagen, is helping an ambitious life science organisation expand its operations in India. Ideagen's Q-Pulse will be the foundation for Omega Diagnostics Group 's quality and compliance management as the company launch sales and marketing operations in Mumbai and manufacturing operations in Pune. Using Q-Pulse, Omega will customise its processes so as to tie in with the Indian GMP requirements and those of the Indian FDA, namely Schedule M. Further to the regulatory compliance benefits, Q-Pulse will allow the organisation to share learnings, best practice and core documentation as it is used extensively within its other manufacturing facilities in the UK and Germany. Mike Gordon, Group Operations Director at Omega Diagnostics Group, said: 'Q-Pulse has been the bedrock to our quality success both in the UK and in Germany and will play a pivotal part in our success in India. 'This is a very exciting time for the Group and is quite a strategic development for the organisation. Achieving and maintaining compliance to the Schedule M in particular is crucial for us, and Q-Pulse will enable us to meet those objectives as efficiently and effectively as possible.' Omega Diagnostics have been users of Ideagen's Q-Pulse software for several years, implementing it to centralise the Group's operations and to make it easier for management to achieve visibility across the whole organisation. Its Indian site will be involved in the manufacturing of a range of products including rapid diagnostics tests and is looking to be fully ISO accredited by the end of 2016. Mike added: 'The Indian expansion ties in with the overall growth and ambitions of Omega and provides us with direct access to the Indian market; reducing exporting costs and increasing profit margins. 'Similarly to our operations in the UK and Germany, Q-Pulse will provide us with a compliant document and quality management system. The system will become an essential component in us achieving ISO accreditation for our entire Indian operations in 2016.' Paul Marshall, Ideagen's Head of Life Science, said: 'We are absolutely delighted to be playing a major part in the expansion and success of Omega Diagnostics Group. 'They are truly a customer advocate for Q-Pulse and we work hard to maintain our fruitful relationship by ensuring the continued integration of Q-Pulse within Omega's global operations."
P/E of only just over 10 The latest forecast for ODX is 1.3p EPS for the year just ended, with 1.4p EPS for the current year.CD4 and the allergy panel are in the price for free. IDH's turnover and m/cap are three times that of ODX, and they have a substantial installed base, so progress regarding the allergy panel is likely to have a material effect on ODX' fortunes.Plus ODX have a very solid Balance Sheet, with £1m net cash and a further £1m excess trade and other receivables over similar payables, against a £17m m/cap.I'm most interested in ODX' core business of food allergy detection. This is imo just going to grow and grow worldwide, and this alone is enough to keep me happy owning ODX shares, without any of the extra icing on the (allergy-free) cake.
Good update - great buying opp here I have added more to my substantial holding in the shares at these levels. Good trading update and core business progressing well. Should see a further upside kick to EPS next year on the back of the allergy developments. So all good at the core. Now to the upside:Should CD4 go through the verification process in the next 18 months and assuming production levels of 6-7m per year, then in such a scenario and at a price of around £5 per test we should see the stock trading at around 90p based on sector average multiples in my view. With downside limited due to the strength of the core business and upside of nearly 600% this is a must own name for any growth portfolio on AIM in my view. Buying more today.
Good trading update today - PBT in line with expectations at £1.2m-£1.3m - revenues up 5%, with Food Intolerance still growing fast, more than compensating for the German allergy business - new Allersys® allergy tests ready for launch - CD4 progressing slowly, but steadily and just a matter of engineering now having found the cause of the problem At around 1.3p historic EPS, and two blue sky opportunities in for free, ODX remains much too cheap imho at a 15p share price.
Trading update very soon The year end trading update has been 14th and 15th April the last two years, so only a week to go.Finncap and Edison both go for 1.3p EPS, with 1.4p EPS for this year. With 0.6p adjusted EPS in H1 the forecasts look pretty reasonable. And H2 currency movements should be to ODX's benefit.Plus any decent progress re CD4 and allergy development is in the price for free.Nice 100,000 buy at 14.47p today has moved the price up.
RNS : Richard Sneller buying more Richard Sneller is still increasing his holding and is now over 5%,,,,[link] bought almost 1.5m shares since his last disclosure in June and now has almost 5.5m.As a Fund Manager at Baillie Gifford he hopefully knows his stuff, particularly as this is a personally held holding.
ODX expansion news Good to see ODX advertising for new positions - "to expand and strengthen our team in the following areas and are looking for talented individuals to help us achieve our ambitious growth targets"[link]