Re: 29p ? Novy, you are not the only one in CERP (old dog LGO). whats interesting about CERP is how they agreed on paying LIND (ala YA) with 50% premium of the last sp. thats to say, the next tranche will be exercised at 7.5p plus if sp at 5p, so the higher the sp, the higher exercised price ! brilliant.Leon deal on JLP project financing also brilliant moves, though sp hasnt truely reflected that yet. like many saying here, sentiment is really important in AIM. and thats about to change too imho
Re: Expecting Large Future Earnings Numb... K - I am happy to hold, BUT the chart is showing the SP is getting into over bought territory, and without some good news to drive the SP up its hard to see much progress soon - I have the SP in a rising trading chanel on my chart (currently the top of the channel is around 5.2p - so any break above (when it comes) will be excellent news). Short term JLP is taking a bit of a breather in my view - BUT I may well add some more on any further short term retrace - BUY LOW & SELL HIGH! ATB All - ARPS the 50 day EMA looks as though its nearing a 'cross over' of the 200 day EMA, and thats a buy signal!PPS - that saying 'every dog' has it day seems to apply to JLP very nicely, as it was once a hot stock. Needless to say, things never happen as 'expected', and she took a nasty tumble, BUT she is nicely on the mend, and the 'good news' seems to me to be much more of an influence on sentiment. (All in my opinion, and I cold be wrong - of course!)
Platinum shortage in 2018? Just found this article.[link] Colin is right in predicting a rise in prices of precious metals.The timing for JLP and shareholders would be exquisite.
Re: Expecting Large Future Earnings Numb... KalanPositivity is just a matter of timing. If I just bought in at 28p I may not feel as upbeat. As it is, this seems like a no brainer...BUT as Novy Kluk posted - and I have said many times - sentiment in the management team needs to change to realise the true value of the company...This will not be driven by words in a webcast as I for one have heard similiar before.. I need to see good numbers. That said, I do feel that the required change is coming, soon.I added more today.Tg
Re: Expecting Large Future Earnings Numb... Refreshing to see positive posts on here for quite a few days now. The web communication is a tool that leon should continue using - the sentiment has turned IMO with his upbeat and excited explanations of the progress and opportunities that are out there. Like Novykluk this is by far my biggest holding and it's good to see folks like Novykluk and Chickenwire still here as I view them of people of honesty and integrity - Chickenwire had the good sense to sell up and return at a lower price and I am hoping to learn from that with JLP, as maybe I have been too loyal in the past since JLP was my first aim share. Nat, 3rd Degreesouth and Seesawpat are all hot on the detail and good to see them convinced of jam hurtling towards us. Add in some wily old birds like ToT the patient investor and AndyRiley the master trader and we start to see a broad spectrum of investors and traders around. To top it all TG5 starting to get positive I feel - the master sceptic and long time critic from way back. There will be bumps and disappointments on the way but I feel the rewards are going to be rich - 29p and 48p are both possible if all goes absolutely swimmingly but I feel 8p to 10p is a relatively short term target once the figures start to flow.If you were choosing a PGM company why would you choose anything else but JLP - would like any answers to that one because if there's anything better I would like some.
Re: Expecting Large Future Earnings Numbers I'm topping up here with every spare penny I have. I've finished watching the webcast again and they're either the best conmen/thieves on the planet or this is going to be stratospheric. Didn't a famous man once say " the stock market is a device used to transfer money from the impatient to the patient?"As we say in my part of the world, "fill yer wellies"AIMHO DYOR etc
Expecting Large Future Earnings Numbers 99,000oz of PGMs pa, and pretty good CrConc Earnings from DCM!!Re. the Calculation of Jubilees portion of the Earnings from CrConc Production at DCM from Tailings:- Month = Sep2017- Production = 5880t of CrConc [ie. same as Q2/2017 monthly figure], from 25,000t of Tailings material (ie. this gives an impressive yield of 1t of output per 4.25t of input material)- Total Revenue = 5880t x $250/t less say $20/t re. shipping cost = £964k- Total Cost = £326k (used Q2/2017 figure of £980k/Q) - Total Earnings = £964k less £326k = £638k- Jubilees portion of the Earnings (now an impressive 50%) = £319k Please feel free to indicate errors re. the above calc? This Excludes the 40,000oz of Cr a DCM from 3rd party materialThe skys the limit, and this is only re. the existing 7 Jubilee Earnings Streams!!!
Re: 29p ? Hi Nat - interesting post. The figure of $8.2m for chrome at DC is probably a little high - Having watched the webcast again from around the 10 minute mark, LC tells us that very conservatively we'll be earning $400k - $500k a month purely from chrome at DC. If that was all we had, at a PE of 10 our current market cap would be spot on !Time for the market to wake up ?
Re: 29p ? Capehake, I read your 14.02h post 3 times but cannot work out what you are trying to tell us.
Re: 29p ? nat81,A really good Post, thank you.I'm away on holiday and unable to verify your numbers. I also haven't yet had time to listen again (several times) to the Webcast, as is my normal practice!But your numbers and target price are absolutely in the right ball park IMHO!!I Posted a target piece in the region of about 48p over a year ago. Even I thought I was "barking" ) at that time. But the fundamentals and the numbers support that and the price you have calculated has complete credibility in my book!But I do think that for reasons widely discussed on this BB over many months, JLP still lacks trust and credibility with many investors! Credibility and sentiment are so critical!!!!CLoumbus Energy (a past dog of long standing) has just taken on a new CEO (Leo Koot) who has a fantastic track record and great credibility! Yes he's ousted the previous dead wood management, but that dog, has now doubled in price in a very short time frame, mainly due to his credibility - admittedly also to some very quick "make over" results on 3 wells.But my point is, it may yet take time for our "new star" Leon (he's excellent IMHO - apart from some of his RNS writing!) to progressively overcome the very poor image JLP has earned during past years (!Once that process has been endured, and once the market cottons on (perhaps that is just starting to happen now!!), the JLP share price will rise EXPONENTIALLY.........all IMHO of course.JLP is my largest holding..........but I am genuinely NOT intending to RAMP with this positive Post. NK?
Re: 29p ? A PE is not useful until a profit is forthcoming. With 50m borrowing for new projects and debt to pay a profit will be a long time coming. Only a fool would pay unnecessary tax.
Re: 29p ? Not sure about 29p but I'm feeling optimistic about prospects here after the webcast.Quarterly's should be issued shortly before the end Oct but from what was said I'm expecting further positive news in the interim.
Re: 29p ? I think you are barking up the wrong tree on this board...most here excluding me think were are lucky to be at 4p...some cant get their head even around 5p...I agree we are heading higher, much higher.Queue the negative comments and expert analysis to why you are wrong...
29p ? sorry if this has already been discussed here. just got time to read some excellent posts in here and LSE. below copied from LSE indicating tailing alone worth 29p.any comments on the calculation?===from [link] have listened again to the webcast and wanted to throw some numbers out there for people to challenge or ponder.Taking DCM first.From the 31 July RNS and taking into account the new arrangements of sharing 50:50 in the net revenue. It would appear that the run rate costs are ~£960k per qt ($1.25m). If you assume that throughput ex 3rd party is 16,000 pq and a price per ton of $250, which Leon said he was being offered, then this translates into net revenue of $2.75m pq. Add to that the $450k pm that will be earned from the toll processing of the additional 40,000 tons per month at DCM and you come to $4.1m pq qtr of net profit, which is split with DCM, so $8.2m pa to JLP. The PGMs at DCM are all due to JLP, LC mentioned a figure of 3,000 oz pm, which based on their current revenue at DCM of $600 per oz net, will produce $21.6m pa. accepting that capital will be needed to beneficate the PGMs at DCM. So a steady run rate net profit at DCM should be ~ $29.8m. With regards to Hernic, we do not participate in Chrome revenue, excepting that we recover our capital expenditure out of this. He also mentioned that we will net ~$1m per month. So from these two projects we should receive revenue of ~$41.8m pa. on a steady run rate, which I believe will be achieved Q1 2018.There is of of course revenue from Platcro to come, but I have chosen not to factor this in as there is no certainty yet surrounding this revenue stream and how it plays out.It would not be unreasonable to apply a PE of 10x to this revenue to derive a share price, which using the 1.2bn shares in issue gets me to a price of 29p per share. I see no reason to risk reduce this price.One can also debate when and if Tjate should also be added to this, but I have chosen to leave it out.Happy to be challenged on any of my logic here.Please of course DYOR, but I thought I would share mine.AW
Re: Buying opportunity Dip was short lived, now 4.475p to buy. I've had a buy order in since Sunday at 4.35p which didn't trigger but managed to grab a few today at just under 4.4p. Have a larger order in at 4.3p just in case.