Orchard Gate
03 Jan 2015
Re: This little gem I could give you many examples of companies which were paying rich dividends just before the shares collapsed (and not just small cap ones either - try Lloyds, Tesco or BP for example).A "huge divi" is usually a sign that it is about to be cut, or the shares collapse or both.
LoadsaDosh2
02 Jan 2015
Re: This little gem If you make any money, I want a fee!Actually REDD are doing very well and paying out huge divis so we know they have the cash (unlike Quindell)
Orchard Gate
02 Jan 2015
Re: This little gem You don't listen to advice in any case, so why should anyone bother responding to your question?Based on your posting history here I'll take a look at REDD and see if it might be worth shorting, as some people are just great contra indicators and you seem to be one of them (maybe due to the ball of wool which seems to sit between your ears).
LoadsaDosh2
01 Jan 2015
Re: This little gem LOL. So you are happy to advise people to sell NBU with no mandate and fee but when challenged to name what will go up in 2015 you make excuses.Well I'll pick one: REDD. Already up 50% since I bought but has way more to go.
Orchard Gate
31 Dec 2014
Re: This little gem As I posted past examples of (mainly) good bear calls with the relevant data and you asked if I can make good bull calls I gave you a couple of examples, all evidenced here so no BS, unlike many fantasy traders here.If you want me to tell you what to invest in, you'll need to give me a mandate and the appropriate fee.
LoadsaDosh2
31 Dec 2014
Re: This little gem So are you still recommending RBS and HSBC Turkey or are they past examples? I was really asking what you think would be a good buy today?
Orchard Gate
31 Dec 2014
Re: This little gem I'm probably slightly better at spotting the dogs, actually. But if you want some good bull calls try RBS (bought at a little over 180p and sold down around 350p) or the HSBC Turkey fund (HTRY which I tipped here 13 Feb) up 43% year to date.I know you probably believe Turkey is either (a) something you eat at Xmas or (b) the shares you buy but take a look.
LoadsaDosh2
30 Dec 2014
Re: This little gem So have you any idea what will be going up or can you only spot dogs?
Orchard Gate
29 Dec 2014
This little gem Obviously I’ve been a bit bearish about Naibu this year and obviously I’ve been right. But it’s not the only share I’ve posted bearish comments about on Interactive Investor during 2014, so at the end of the year it’s right to take a quick ‘stock take’ and see how all of those views - right and wrong - have stacked up. A bit like a poor man’s Simon Thompson. But with a far better record than him.I was already bearish about three shares and continued to be so throughout the year: Polo, Daniel Stewart and Colt. Polo is down 79% this year, Daniel Stewart is bust in all but name and with the shares suspended I count that as a 100% fall and Colt is the one about which I was (very slightly) wrong as they are up 2% this year, underperforming the market and its sector but still up. And still a long term dog in my view.Then there are six other shares about which I expressed bearish views for the first time this year. Let’s start with RBS. I’ve been bullish since early 2009 when I first bought in and it has been a very profitable investment for me. But I turned cautious at the start of the year and advised selling in January with the shares at 360p saying “I suspect the shares are in for a very rough ride over the next few months”. I was sort of right – the shares then fell to 296p (down 18%) - but I’m happy to call this a wrong call as they have subsequently rallied quite strongly and are now 393p, up 9% since that sell recommendation.For the other five, things have been a lot less bright with every one of them tanking. On 27 February I suggest AO World was worth shorting (as I had just done myself) at the price then of 380p and the shares subsequently fell to 149.6p, down 61%. They have since rallied but are still 25% lower than when I suggested they would make a good short.In April I said Serco was effectively bust and the shares have since fallen 53%.In June I said Naibu was not a real investment and the shares then collapsed by 84%.In August I recommended investors sell out of Monitise (a share I had bought and sold at a decent profit) and they are down 42% since I made that call.And finally DX the logistics group. Not a strong call from me but I thought best avoided at the IC buy price of 120p and even at 105p when I posted in October and now at 87p, they are down 17%.If you take a straight average of each of those calls (from the date made to closing prices on 29 December and counting AO World as down just 25%) then my average bear call is 43% lower than when I suggested people avoid, sell or short and seven out of nine are down, each by 17% or more. If you annualise the results they’re down by an average of 68%.Of course, this could just be random but the 2014 record suggests (and last year was similar) some people really can spot a dog a mile away.
LoadsaDosh2
28 Dec 2014
Re: How I regret missing out on this gem I meant OG, not OC.
LoadsaDosh2
28 Dec 2014
Re: How I regret missing out on this gem Best not to live a life of regret OC, there's always CAMK, hasn't fallen quite as much so still a bit to go if you are right. Personally I don't do shorting as that is gambling rather than investing though some would argue NBU is a gamble; well I didn't see it like that when I invested. You'll be pleased to hear my New year's resolution is to give up AIM and lo-cap stocks, they nearly all show a similar pattern to NBU, sometimes with the odd spike up if you are lucky !
Orchard Gate
24 Dec 2014
How I regret missing out on this gem Missing out on shorting it.
LoadsaDosh2
19 Dec 2014
Re: Shame you missed out Orchard Gate PS. Just got my CAMK dividend in time for Christmas, luvly jubly.
LoadsaDosh2
19 Dec 2014
Re: Shame you missed out Orchard Gate ha ha, you're a laugh and so are the petty insults; entertaining if nothing else. Happy Christmas all, even Orchard Gate and paccamac !
Orchard Gate
19 Dec 2014
Re: Shame you missed out Orchard Gate BTW the title of this thread expresses regret that I somehow "missed out". Given my first post was to warn against Naibu and it has since fallen by 80% (in just 6 months) I think I'm rather pleased to have "missed out" on this party - other than by not shorting it, of course - and would think those who were yelling at sceptics like me then might show a little more humility and perhaps even consider admitting they were wrong and apologise.Oh a pig to fly by the window please.
