Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN Probably got more can’t be bothered now
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN oil_investor - 01 Oct 2016 - 09:11:55 - 518703 of 577933 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP nestoframpers: GKP mentioned the Tidal Effect in Shaikan quite soon after Shaikan-1 was completed in 2009. John Stafford devoted an ENTIRE SLIDE TO TIDAL EFFECTS at his presentation to the Petroleum Exploration Society of Great Britain on 9 July 2013. That is slide #34 of the printed copy of his presentation WHICH I FORCED OUT OF GKP AFTER IT HAD BEEN CONCEALED FROM THE SHAREHOLDERS FOR TWO YEARS AND FIVE MONTHS.12-hour Tidal Cyclicity can also be seen elsewhere in Stafford’s presentation, particularly on slide #33. You say “a child can smell the BS here”. So can a grandfather: he is one of the UK’s most well-known geophysicists and he is seriously concerned about the CPR. He has said to me that he would “never have accepted it” and he wants to meet Jon Ferrier to discuss with him what has been going on. He also suggests that Jon Ferrier gives him access to the GKP Sub-Surface Team (not John Stafford) to spend two days with them, going through the situation with them, so that he can give Jon Ferrier his personal assessment. That would of course be “insider” and could not be disclosed. He has also suggested that GKP should establish a RESERVES COMMITTEE which would replace the current situation under which John Stafford performs the role, as Anastasia Vvedenskaya has expressed it, of being the “Custodian of the Data”. And it’s not just the Tidal Effects: Stafford described Shaikan as “pretty much shot to pieces with fractures…but that’s a good thing” in his PESGB presentation. He disagreed with ERC (as did John Gerstenlauer) on the CPR, but the RNS’d webcast in which he said that has inexplicably been MADE UNAVAILABLE BY VVEDENSKAYA BY REMOVING THE HYPERLINK. He also said that the Productivity Index was 250 stb/d/psi, a colossal figure. And that the Permeability was 12000 mD. That’s about TWELVE TIMES MORE PERMEABLE THAN DRY LOOSE SAND. And he said that the Radius of Investigation was 31700 ft (2188 hours) which means that on a 3-month test OIL WAS DRAINING INTO THE WELL OVER A RADIUS OF SIX MILES. This is an EXTRAORDINARY figure. It’s only 10am and we’re onto The Barrels already. Well it’s inevitable, isn’t it? Just a pre-breakfast mull.
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN bobobob5 - 25 Mar 2013 - 19:35:17 - 265115 of 577933 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP rocky: Dalesman suggested over the weekend that the formations are not interconnected/intercommunicating, because of the seals. Whether or not that’s correct I don’t know. But Gulf certainly do…at the time of Shaikan-1, a very sensitive pressure measuring device was flown in from the USA, and apparently used to measure the pressure at Shaikan-1 and another (non-Shaikan) well 26 kilometres away. It was apparently from those pressure measurements that the tidal effect was identified. Someone with a map and a pair of compasses should be able to measure 26 kilometres from Shaikan-1 and thereby identify the well in question!!! One of my mob has just sent me the following email; I don’t usually post emails on here, but on this occasion I will. Note the 62 years reference. I read the GKP presentation. Looks good to me. My key thoughts are: 1) Much more production focussed. 2) Talk of upgrade potential - possibly mega. 3) P90 vs P10 gap getting much narrower. 4) Commercially declaration. 5) Field development plan submitted. 6) Points 3,4 and 5 suggest to me they know the reserve figures. 7) 13.7bn boip with 2.25 bn recoverable suggests a humble 16% recovery. 8) With 100,000 bopd production this suggests 62 year field life. 9) A big emphasis on pipelines. 10) Production facilities look good in the flesh. Looks like they are entering a new phase of focussing on getting the oil to market rather than just saying "look how much oil we have".
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN nestoframpers - 01 Jan 2015 - 18:44:45 - 394839 of 577933 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP Sarah last para , they know you know , the rest of it reads very well too (tidal effect ,love that) On Tuesday 9th July 2013 The Geological Society of London, Burlington House, Piccadilly, London Start 6pm (doors close at 6.20pm) The Shaikan discovery lies in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq, in the north of the country, within the Zagros fold and thrust belt. This talk describes the Companyâ€™s activity in the six years from licence acquisition to submission of a Field Development Plan (FDP). These materials are presented by kind permission of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). We also would like to thank our partner MOL for their support. The Shaikan Production Sharing Contract (PSC) was signed by Gulf Keystone Petroleum International (GKPI) in November 2007. The licence covers 280km2 and lies within the foothills of the Zagros mountains approximately two hours by road from Erbil the regional capital. No recent exploration activity existed at the time of signing with no well, seismic or other reconnaissance data other than good quality field geological maps from the local survey. The nearest offset well was 27km to the southwest. GKPI acquired 171 km of 2D seismic data in 2008 and spudded the Shaikan-1 exploration well in April 2009. The well was highly successful. Shaikan-1 found a major Jurassic oil column of 16-18 API crude together with lighter Triassic hydrocarbons ranging from 35 to 52 API. The oil was found in dolomites and limestone units across the upper Jurassic Barsarin, the middle Jurassic Sargelu, Alan and Mus and the lower Jurassic Butmah formations. Typically these comprise restricted lagoon to marginal marine fine grained mudstones, wackestones and occasional packstones all of which are moderately to intensely fractured. As a result of this fracturing well productivities are extremely high with well Productivity Index (PI) values reaching 250bbl/d/psi and test rates on restricted down hole chokes and 3Â½â€ tubing reaching over 7500BOPD. Following the success of the Shaikan- 1 well a 3D seismic survey was acquired in 2010 covering 814km2 and giving full fold coverage over the entire licence. Appraisal wells aimed at delineating the Jurassic and Triassic were drilled and tested as Shaikan-2 and -4, with Shaikan-3 being a shallow Cretaceous test which was subsequently deepened to the Jurassic. Recent structural studies incorporating fieldwork and the 3D seismic data, indicate a box fold architecture in Shaikan, structural restoration work is on-going to determine the exact nature of this fold and the level of the detachment. Appraisal drilling continued in 2011 as an improving infrastructure and service base became available. Shaikan-5 and -6 wells were logged and tested with more modern equipment yielding important information on the nature of the fracture system and the mineralogical composition of some formations. An extensive coring programme was also conducted throughout the Shaikan Appraisal phase. During this period, an extended well test was undertaken in the Shaikan-1 and -3 wells, with just over 1 million barrels flowed to date. At the time of writing this early well test facility has been replaced by the first Shaikan permanent production facility (with 20,000 BOPD name plate capacity), which is currently being commissioned. Downhole memory gauges have been deployed since the first well and these data have yielded interesting details of the pressure response. What is clear from these data is that Shaikan is connected to a large volume (inclusive of aquifer) and that this volume is subject to seasonal variation as earth tides drive small scale pressure responses within the reservoir. What remains unknown is the drive mechanism of the field. In summary, current drilling and production has demonstrated a 1000m oil column across multiple formations. Pressure data indicate that the Jurassic is a single system with a common free water level, however, whether this is true on a production timescale is unclear. Recent post-appraisal well Shaikan-8 has demonstrated an effective intra-Jurassic seal in the Adaiyah Formation which separates the upper from the lower Jurassic. Following extensive fieldwork, modelling and integration, a Discrete Fracture Network model has been constructed for the asset which together with a series of Eclipseâ„¢ sector models extracted from a full field Petrelâ„¢ model has been used to investigate potential development scenarios.
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN If I find old posts on Tidal effect I will post them up oil_investor - 09 Jun 2016 - 09:39:51 - 491773 of 577933 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP sarahgibbs: so the rumours about tidal effects at Shaikan were described in detail to the PESGB by John Stafford on 9 July 2013. Why did he conceal this information from the shareholders? It seems a strange thing for him to have done…unless either (a) there is something else in those slides which he wanted to conceal, or: (b) the tidal effect is highly significant. The CEO of another Kurdistan E&P had said to me that it was “impossible” for there to be tidal effects within Shaikan. He insisted that tidal effects were only ever found in reservoirs connected to the sea or ocean, where the Moon’s effect could alter the reservoir pressure through the seawater in contact with the oil. A listed company board-level friend of mine had also come across those sea or ocean effects. There’s an obscure academic paper some 30-odd years ago by a lady geophysicist (who joined ELF) which develops equations linking tidal effects in oil reservoirs to the reservoir quality (porosity and permeability). Stafford claims that the Moon “pulls the reservoir limestone upwards”, thereby increasing its volume which he then interprets (using Boyle’s Law, which was incidentally developed by his assistant Robert Hooke) as the cause of the pressure reduction. Hmmm. The problems with that, in my opinion, are threefold: (a) does the Earth-tide stretching effect at surface (which can be found in the literature) really extend all the way down to an oil reservoir? (b) can a piece of brittle carbonate (which is what comprises the Shaikan Jurassic) really “stretch” like that, because of the Moon? © if Stafford’s explanation of the mechanism by which the Moon affects the reservoir pressure at Shaikan were correct, surely ALL reservoirs ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD would be affected? How could it only affect Shaikan? (Noting that Simon Hatfield told me that he had found unexplained cyclical pressure changes in Kurdistan). I’m more inclined to think that the tidal effects are more probably the pull on the Moon on a massive volume of liquid. Black Gold. Texas Tea. What do you think?
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN NOR, had someone else check the last two CPRs for specific reference to the word “tidal”, they came up with a null result as well. Are we both failing to find what is there or are we looking in the wrong place or should be looking for a different word/phrase? Is it contained in an earlier CPR or are you referring to an equivalent phrase or explanation involving the aquifer?
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN NOR, thanks for providing the original source - often seems an impossible or near impossible task with GKP. I was a bit surprised by the mention of the dessert. I think the tidal effect is a reference to Earth ones and not Ocean ones . There is the potential for deformation due to changes in gravitational pull all over the Earth’s surface. VS8’s link provides a quick guide to the difference.
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN Re the CPRs we knew from the get go they were a appalling job , a post from that time . BTW the CPR mentions the Tidal effect . 1waving 13 Mar’14 - 22:12 - 344494 of 344554 5 1 JG 14:30mins ‘The 2p numbers and the vast majority of the 3c numbers all refer to those 3 reservoirs’ ( Mus Alan and Sargelu only Representing just 39% of the OIP. ) What about the rest then Equipoise ? — this is just a partial report !! The only well on Shaikan which has encountered water according to JG in the presentation is SH-6 – and we know the explanation from JG. OWC at around 1950m, not 1450m So why has Equipoise ‘extrapolated’ this OWC across all of Shaikan taking 500m out of the Jurassic when all the other wells on Shaikan were dry – no water. What is it that Equipoise don’t understand about no water in ALL the other wells on Shaikan No justification at all from Equipoise — Should be taken severely to task. I’ll bet most of the analysts will follow them blindly, but then again what would you expect from the standards of the analysts. A partial report only from Equipoise, should come with a risk warning, shameful !!
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN John Gert… ? forget spelling , he was COO from 2008 ish
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN Tidal effects were 1st mentioned in a phone call between John Gert and Granmacho ( a post who has quit posting ) here is the snippet , rest of post below We also talked about the famous pressure gradient plot. He said the pressure information was extremely good and there was high confidence in the data. He inferred that DGA had seen it and in their report they refer to GKPs pressure build up analysis but dont say that they have interpreted it independently. He also said they could see tidal effects which is a bit strange in the middle of the desert! Author Gramacho View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted 2010-02-04 22:58 Subject PI Update and Conversation with JG Votes for this Posting Voted UP 136 times. Fantastic selection of posts on the Proactive presentation and done so promptly. By the time I got home you had reported on nearly everything so I will concentrate on what has not been covered and just re-emphasise a couple of points that have already been made. In addition I will attempt to clarify a few things that Ewen had said and not said during that evening by reference to a phone call that I had with John Gerstenlauer , the COO, today. PI Presentation and Evening Discussion The first thing I learnt was how to pronounce Shaiken! They were completely surprised that DGA included the speculative gas volumes underneath the drilled intervals. He believes they made the estimate by looking at the Jabal Kand well logs. I asked him whether they had conducted an assay on the oil recovered from the well tests but he wasnt able to say so we are no wiser on the potential discount to Brent. John Gs estimate of 30-35% RF for Shaikan comes from his experience on a heavy oil field in Yemen that is naturally fractured. Sh-2 will cost about $25MM. Ewan said they are going to modify their drilling technique to try to improve drilling rates. During the presentation he pointed to two locations for future appraisal wells one of which was on the eastern edge of the structure. He did not mention the shallow well in the presentation that we have seen tender information on and said afterwards that the well is not confirmed, they are only thinking about it (but this was later clarified by JG). I was surprised to learn that the seismic line spacing on Shaikan is 4km. You could miss half the N Sea satellite tie backs with that spacing. But of course Shaikan is 35-40 km long so they have 10 lines across it (Nth Sth). This helps explain the uncertainty in closure contour. The mapping program has to interpolate/extrapolate across the 4km spacing or beyond the final line. BBBS or Ads_lon could comment more but I recall course 2-D surveys typically have 1 -2 km line spacing. The Etamic deal was done about the end of June. He described how delays occur in obtaining approvals/signatures in terms of how difficult it is to get time with those with the authority to approve deals. The latter two points and their concern about seeps on Shaikan possibly equating to the structure having leaked (down to a residual, immovable oil saturation) do explain the Etamic deal. GKP must have lacked confidence in the seal to have offered the terms that they, sorry he, got. I found Ewen a very straight guy, nothing in the body language to worry those concerned about the Etamic deal. It was really good to hear that GKP took planning for the well tests very seriously. Due to the concerns about the H2S they went to the extent of planning to temporarily re-house the nearby villagers. Ewan said the last thing they wanted to do was gas the Kurds! Apparently they had set a precedent as no one had talked to the local authority before about H2S issues. It is an important operational point. There would be serious implications if a major incident took place and it is better they err well on the side of safety. The 13Bn OIP P1 has still not been explained properly and I think Ewen contributed to the confusion. I will cover this in a separate note because the key learning could be relevant if you hold other small oil stocks, especially Kurdistan ones. So a great evening, it was good to meet you dhatrader and although we didnt exchange names i know I must have met several more of you based on the same conversations we heard whilst pinning Ewen against the wall during the drinks/canapé session. Oh nearly forgot to mention the CNN interview. Ewan said that Todd was not aware the camera was running, he thought they were having an informal discussion. Phone Call with JG Today JG was bullish on the recovery factor based on his experience with the Masik? Field in Yemen which he described as starting out at 240,000 bopd and still producing about 200,000 bopd 18 years later. It was of a similar gravity and very low GOR but the wells still produced at high rates through the fracture network. However this must be going back a few years as I cant find any mention of it and the entire country only produces 400-500,000 bopd nowadays. We also discussed recovery mechanisms but he asked for his speculative comments not to be put in a blog. He was also confident that the drilling performance would improve markedly on Sh-2 now they know what they are dealing with. There was a lost circulation zone at about 500m that caused a lot of difficulties. If this is known ahead of time normal procedure would be to plan the casing program with this in mind and run casing once through the zone and cement off the trouble zone behind pipe. If you have not planned for this and do set pipe this means that you have used up one of your casing strings and of course the subsequent hole size is reduced. The consequence is that you have one casing string too few and run the risk of not being able to get to TD. GKP elected not to run pipe and soldiered on to the next planned casing point running into difficulty drilling ahead. They will amend their casing program on Sh-2 to avoid the difficulties of Sh-1. We also talked about the famous pressure gradient plot. He said the pressure information was extremely good and there was high confidence in the data. He inferred that DGA had seen it and in their report they refer to GKPs pressure build up analysis but dont say that they have interpreted it independently. He also said they could see tidal effects which is a bit strange in the middle of the desert! JG said they were mostly focused on proving areal extent in Sh-2 and not actively searching for the OWC. It would be ideal for the biggest movement in share price if they could position it sufficiently down dip to do both. It will be down dip but finding the OWC does not seem to be in the top priority at the moment. It was good to hear GKP have a few people with H2S experience. He was involved in developing the record highest H2S property in the US, 86% H2S. Nasty stuff! He confirmed Ewens comments about the DGA gas estimates. There was a very good correlation between the JK-1 well and Sh-1 even though they are 26km apart. The high P interval in Sh-1 is a thick interval in JK-1 and led to DGAs confidence to issue the very significant gas estimates. GKP are planning to have the capability to handle higher pressures than they saw at TD in case they were still in a transition zone when they had to abandon drilling so they should be able to get into the Permian. The 5000bopd rates shown for the Butmah in a couple of the recent presentations are a typo. They estimated the rate as nearer to 2000bopd even though it did not flow to surface. The test in Sh-1 will comprise a separate 1 day test in each of the DST 2 and 3 intervals. DST 2 only flowed at 120 bbl/d and DST 3 was the Butmah. An ESP will be used to pump the intervals to demonstrate that they can be produced at commercial rates. The extended test will be on the DST 1 interval in the Sargelu that produced at 7400 bbl/d. He implied they would not be pumping this interval which infers that the well was choked back on test if they they think it is capable of the 10,000 bbl/d that has been mentioned consistently in presentations. JG was very confident that they would drill the shallow well once the Sh-1 well is put on long term test. I said this would be a useful addition to the OIP at which point he laughed. Apparently they feel (rightly) that they have found a massive amount of oil but every time he speaks to a PI they want more (lol). JG said that he has never seen a well like this in his 35 yrs (me too) and that they will be writing papers about the technical analysis of it for years to come. Apparently they all were walking around the office looking like they had won the lottery as the well unfolded. On Sh-1 MOL were good partners and didnt hassle GKP to issue information. On AB-1 MOL are drilling it as a tight hole. JG said they were trying to repay the favour and would issue an RNS when it was required by AIM rules but it sounded like they wouldnt be trying to broadcast at every opportunity. They will be negotiating the amount of information to be released. Finally he mentioned, as did Ewen, that they were looking for opportunities to acquire additional interest in other licences. A good guy, very accessible. I was most impressed, I called the London office this morning and got a call back within an hour or so from the US at what must have been about 05:30 a.m. Thats being pretty responsive to a shareholder call. Regards, Gramacho
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN Habshan15 Jan '19 - 10:51 - 1671 of 1674 0 14 0 More from gypsum on LSE. RE: Competent Persons or Spin Doctors?Today 10:26 owenjones: Thanks for your contribution to the technical debate. I agree with your observation that “Gulf Keystone Petroleum only seem to be in the habit of preventing access to such material”. Their habit is not limited to the absence of their presentation from the Finding Petroleum event last January; as noted in my post, their first and second CPRs are also not available on their website. Furthermore, a large number of other reports and presentations, that was previously available, were removed from their website around the time of the re-structure. I also agree with your statement “How can Shaikan have such a huge Radius of Investigation (Transient Drainage Radius), world-class Productivity Indexes and high Permeability with a Fracture Porosity of just 0.4%, as has been claimed by ERCE in both CPRs”. Thanks for adding ‘huge Radius of Investigation’ to the pot (I missed that additional important aspect in my post!). Note that ERCE have already made THREE CPRs for GKP (the dates are indicated in my post), and if the one with multiple avatars is to be believed, ERCE are currently preparing the fourth. Thank you for describing the four main components of total fracture porosity. Whilst you indicate that the first of these components - the Primary (tectonic) Fracture porosity - has an industry average of 0.5%, I do not believe that this lets ERCE off the hook. ERCE must surely have considered all four components when they assigned 0.4% as the fracture porosity for Shaikan? So the central point of my post remains: How can one set of ‘Competent Persons’ - ERCE - assign 0.4% fracture porosity on the basis that “it was the highest level that they had come across anywhere”, whilst another group - RPS and C&C Reservoirs - recognise a fracture porosity of 4% on the basis that “it’s the average of global analogues” (according to Dr Trice). Wiseman72: You wrote “I find it strange that GKP have used ERC yet on both occasions they have produced CPR’s GKP has disagreed with the findings. In any other situation in any walk of life you would surely not use them again you would use another proven auditor to validate and substantiate the findings”. I totally agree with you, except that as indicated above, it would seem that GKP are currently performing a FOURTH CPR with ERCE! kANDYMAN: I am not CJ. My avatar name is partly inspired by his former LSE avatar ‘gyp8’. He was spot-on about corruption in both region and the company long before most of us woke up. I do not post on any other board or other name. I do ‘watch’ a lot. BroadfordBay: A few capitalised words extracted from the CPR adds nothing to the central debate. Shoeboy63: You asked asked how many CPRs have GKP made, and for justification for why fracture porosity should be more than 0.4% (or words to that effect, your post has been removed for some reason). The answer to your first question is in the second sentence of my post. The answer to your second question is in the remainder of m
Closing Price FTSE 100 . . CP . . 6,896.15 (+41.13) (+0.60%) Brent Crude . . . $60.13 (+1.14) (+1.93%) Close . . . . 212.00 Open . . . . 207.00 High . . . . .214.50 . . . 08.07.43 . . . AT Low . . . . . 207.00 . . . 08.00.12 . . . UT MD Auc . . 13 @ 210p LSE Vols . . . . 308,037 . . . 239 trades AT trades . . . 195 OT trades . . .44 Closing UT, 36,103 @ 209p
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN I found many links regarding tidal effect on ground water, this one looks interesting as it deals with tidal effect on confined water reservoirs. I should imagine oil reservoirs would also affected by tidal forces, as they normally sit on water. [link]
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN Looking forward to the replies. Just done a search of the CPRs for a reference to “tidal effects” and got a null return. Then did a general search for gulf keystone Shaikan “tidal effect” and only got references on discussion boards. I was surprised there were no links to GKP presentations. Maybe it’s down to my browser and someone else can find something other than an opinion on a BB. It could well be that there was an original GKP presentation that has since been removed and that led to the discussions.
Post on FP from LSE Via ADVFN I have submitted some reports to a geologist, who has no experience in reservoirs. Could you explain me what the so-called tidal effect is? As I understand it, it is the effect of the moon on the reservoir. I’ll come back later about the answers I got.