Newsflow If it was in utter lockdown, why would they have put out the January 2019 presentation?
Newsflow As we wait for the Sale RNS today, Tuesday or latest Mar 28,(or our takeover of a bank as Sami is acting like one ) ponder GKP newsflow. If like DNO and Genel who long since stopped reporting payment receipt since Kimberley’s appt RNS last September there would only have been 3 RNS in 6 months. If they had announced “FY results” in the fashion they always had in Jan update there would have been just 2! If they had not issued a Corporate and operational update 2 weeks prior to alleged results day Mar 28 which has never occurred before,there would have been just 1 in 6 months! Its utter lock down prior to sale announcement.
Sale Price Survey I voted £30 +on the basis they have 470 m 2p 200m 2c to come across to 2 P on FDP sign off plus upside CPR according to MOL Nov presentation . So around 800m at $12/boe And it would be very surprising if Sami hasn’t bought in by proxy to concentrate Should be announced by 28/3 or Sami can outline the merger with RBS as currently he’s got a cash mountain doing nowt!
Opening Prices FTSE 100 . . . 7,227.81 . (+42.38) . (+0.59%) Brent Crude . . . $66.88 . (-0.35) . (-0.52%) GKP . . . 60,792 @ 251.5p . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FTSE 100 . . . 7,245.92 . (+17.64) . (+0.24%) Brent Crude . . . $67.16 . (+0.00) . (+0.00%) GKP. . . 51 @ 250p 20,000 @ 242 and 15,000 @ 240 on the Bid 2 x 25,000 @ 264 and 25,000 @ 274 & 275 on the Ask VFIL @ 246.5 and BMCM @ 246 on the Bid There could be some Liquidity hunting down towards 246 today
Sale Price Survey So, you have multiple identities on Twitter too Sad
Sale Price Survey Investors opinion on likely takeover price twitter.com Goodnight Charlie (GoodnightCharl1) #GKP what price paid? I think at least north of $4bn that's about £13/share,and it's a no-brainer they will have bought back stock to concentrate, so minimum 30% uplift to £ 17 + 10:25 AM - 17 Mar 2019
Price per flowing barrel Price per flowing barrel is a common valuation metric Mcap plus debt minus cash) / barrels produced per day In GKP case using current market cap, middle of guidance for 2019 is about $17,000 and on 2020 outlook around $12,000 ABOUT $7,000 BY 2024. Typical acquisitions $50/60,000 Occidental quite spikey at $73,000 recently. Again for the avoidance of any doubt, just because the market rates the company so ludicrously cheaply relative to price per flowing barrel and reserves wise, NO IOC is/or could ever have any interest in the last land based giant oil field still operated by an independent. No sale is imminent, definitely not this week, nor at results, nor EVER. RUMOURS that the company have bought in 25-30% using their excess cash to exploit this massive disparity between intrinsic trade value versus market value are Nonsense. That process WOULD have been massively valuable to any shareholders remaining at imaginary imminent takeover, but our FD vastly experienced in E +P financing is obviously too thick to have spotted this anyway. Thank God there is no sale incoming as if I was one of the major shareholders I’d be very cross with him. Not buying in shares would have lost me an extra 30-45% in profits.
Total bought Maersk On a $/boe ratio of just under $14 Gulf the operator of the largest land based giant field on earth left in indy hands using current market cap is rated at around $1.25 for 2p I’m aware that no IOC will EVER have any interest in these assets,AND for the removal of any doubt that the company will never be SOLD, for the avoidance of doubt definitely not within a couple of weeks, definitely not this week, nor ever. Rumours that the company will soon announce that it’s proxy Citigroup has bought back over 65m shares to retire to concentrate shareholders profits by a third on imaginary sale are also utter twaddle.
More typical $/boe geronimo: However, when it came to mergers and acquisitions last year, data firm Dealogic and GlobalData figures suggest French supermajor Total had the most M&A deals with 20 over the last four quarters, followed by ExxonMobil with 18 deals. So for those 38 deals, what was the range and distribution of the premium they paid for the shares, when comparing the before and after
More typical $/boe However, when it came to mergers and acquisitions last year, data firm Dealogic and GlobalData figures suggest French supermajor Total had the most M&A deals with 20 over the last four quarters, followed by ExxonMobil with 18 deals. GlobalData also said that among the planned projects which are expected to start by 2025, Chevron has the highest median for full-cycle capital expenditure (capex) per boe, with $18.2 per boe, followed by Total and Eni with $15.2 per boe and $14.7 per boe respectively. Base on current 80%WI which is in upgrade partners MOL reported then 6/700m boe pushes GKP assets into “double figure” billions £33 plus
Average $/boe M and A metrics G, pity you didn’t post this on my original thread, it might be a valid contribution. Just a couple of points: Why are you attributing the gross payment for the whole company of WesternZagros to the just the nett 2P Reserves? I would argue that the specific strengths/weaknesses of those examples were already built into the pre M&A price activity. So in each case what was the final premium?
Average $/boe M and A metrics Recent delivered M and A of serious large reserves like Gulfs might be Shell buying BG Total buying Maersk Around $14/boe that would be about £35 per share Western zagros sale in country was at $22 £50 plus a share Theoryman lol
Global M&A Premiums I only have access to the 2016 figures but a quick summary would be, for the ratio of base Price before event; compared to final Price: 0 to 10% premium was circa 15% of companies 10 to 50% premium was circa 80% of companies 50 to 100% was circa just 5% of companies Over 100% premium was 0% So just a couple of questions. 1 Was 2016 a typical year? 2 Why should GKP be so different if it wasn’t?
Closing Prices Close . . . . 255.00 Open . . . . 255.00 High . . . . .257.4199 . . . 09.49.55 . . OT Low . . . . . 247.00 . . . . . 14.47.59 . . AT MD Auc . . 93 @ 255p LSE Vols . . . . 675,800 . . . 575 trades AT trades . . . 424 = 73.74% OT trades . . . 151 CP. . 60,792 @ 251.5p FTSE 100 . . . 7,227.81 . (+42.38) . (+0.59%) Brent Crude . . . $66.88 . (-0.35) . (-0.52%)
Next week For lth or any holders might be rewarding Let’s hope so