Gulf Keystone Petroleum Live Discussion

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theoryman 09:22

Compensation for shareholders B, that 140% is a good headline figure - based on producing 8.1 but reserves going up 11.4, so 11.4/8.1 gives the 149%. I’d focus on the 102.7 estimate at the starr of the year which turned out to be an underestimate of 11.4, so that’s a much lower, but still welcome 11% increase in the 2P Reserves. When it comes to the next update on GKP’s Reserves, I fear we could be in for a longer wait than some are hoping for. The slide from the Scottish Oil presentation with the big cyclic arrow and the 0.2-0.4-0.7 in the middle is my reason. ERCE changed the low 0.1 to the present 0.2 after they got extra well data - they left the best and high values unchanged. The thinking represented by arrow is one of Drill and then update the model - there was no change in those numbers from 2016. So despite all the very useful production data that has been made available since the last CPR update, I think it will only be changed again once the data from the next set of three new wells has been collected, analysed and interpreted. These %FP numbers from the CPs really are important in the models used to assess value. I am working on the 0.4% figure as my baseline expectation, I am almost certain it will be higher but I accept it might not be. My assessment of the reward:risk and probability of success ranks amongst the best I have ever had for an investment but there is no certainty that it wil deliver.

nest_of_rampers 16 Feb 2019

Corbyn Tax plans JEREMY Corbyn is secretly planning to instantly slap a 20 per cent tax on all assets above a certain level if he becomes Prime Minister, it was claimed yesterday. The Sun – 16 Feb 19 The Labour leader 'plans an instant all-assets tax hit on the well-off' to raise... JEREMY Corbyn is secretly planning to instantly slap a 20 per cent tax on all assets above a certain level if he becomes Prime Minister, it was claimed yesterday. The threshold for the radical new …

bravedog 16 Feb 2019

Compensation for shareholders Tman, Force majeure. I would agree with you if we had the same shareholders. Now the new shareholders decide and it wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of Kurdish families are among them. Their interest is to maximize profit: when the cy is sold, there won’t be many opportunities left for them in Kurdistan. Only DNO, MOL, Shamaran which, according to A Mohtadi, had a 140% reserves replacement ratio!. Which is this ratio for GKP?

MikeyAdmin 15 Feb 2019

Share Price Walk Up Screencast.com 2019-02-15_1915 Shared from Screencast.com Just like the price was walked down in a controlled manner to 164, now, albeit not in one go, it looks like the price is now being walked back up, . Mon . . . 206 Tue . . . .207.5 Wed . . . 207 Thurs . .211 Fri . . . . .214 Each day during the so far 2 stage rise VFIL has sat on the Ask, at a slightly higher price than ther day before, with a large order sat at a lower price just below him, and each day that large order, priced today @ 216, has been “tapped” with a few AT buys With the FTSE and Oil Prices rising and GKP still with Orders being processed holding the price back, it will be interesting to see how long the rise continues, and over the next week whether the SP rises another 8p or more. The 6,600 @ 990 returned this morning but was removed again tonight. Could the 6,600 order be a signal to the market ? ? ? ?

theoryman 15 Feb 2019

Compensation for shareholders B, if I were them I would offer the defence of Force Majeure at the pre-trial stage. I’d go for; 1 The pressing need to feed and care for the displaced people. 2 The direct impact on the KRG’s region of ISIS. 3 The indirect effect of ISIS on the KRG by problems caused for the central government e.g. break down of budget payments. I’d submit that they were all out of my reasonable control. Any one of those would have caused a problem in meeting the contract, all three at once rendered it impossible to do so. Further to the above, I would show how well behaved I’d been since things settled down e.g no missed payments and (Brent-22) agreement Pity really because I would like to see the MNR in court having had to provide data on: 1 Who they sold Shaikan oil to. 2 What price they got (i) as a standalone product (ii) what price they got if it was in a mix and how they calculated what the Shaikan oil was deemed to have raised as a component part.

MikeyAdmin 15 Feb 2019

Closing Prices Close . . . . 211.00 Open . . . . 208.00 High . . . . .216.1475 . . . 12.29.15 . . OT Low . . . . . 208.00 . . . . . 08.00.00 . . UT MD Auc . . 1,926 @ 214 LSE Vols . . . . 771,770 . . . 444 trades AT trades . . . 330 OT trades . . .114 CP, 66,968 @ 214p FTSE 100 . . . 7,240.28 . (+43.27) . (+0.60%) Brent Crude . . . $65.79 . (+1.22) . (+1.89%)

MikeyAdmin 15 Feb 2019

Level 2 Complete turn around of the Bid Ask Weight. 246,837----244,800 44----40 212-----215 . . . Mid 214.5

bravedog 15 Feb 2019

Compensation for shareholders Lot of discussion on lse bb about 2nd amendment, the RNS of March 17 2016. I think you are missing an important point: the agreement reached in March 2016 was between a CEO representing the LTH shareholders of GKP and the MNR. It only cleared the back costs problems and partially the 15% BIR. Today, the CEO represents the bond holders up to 85%, the subscribers of the 10% capital increase and the 5% LTH. As the MNR/KRG didn’t respect the terms of the PSC, a compensation must now be given to the shareholders of GKP: the cy went almost in receivership, lost valuable assets where they made unnecessary development (SA). Had payments been done on time by MNR/KRG, the whole story would have been different. That is why a compensation must be made. It has already started, because we now know GKP has 80% w.i. in Shaikan and MOL 20%. I expect other bonus like an extension of the PSC, scrapping of the 30% « infrastructure tax » will come. They is absolutely no reason why the MNR/KRG should not compensate all the shareholders.

nest_of_rampers 15 Feb 2019

Opening Prices [Is it a Bee hive or a hornets nest?]()

MikeyAdmin 15 Feb 2019

Opening Prices FTSE 100 . . . 7,196.75 . (+5.91) . (+0.08%) Brent Crude . . . 64.23 . (+0.62) . (+0.97%) GKP . . . 78,892 @ 211.00 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,600 @ 990p has reappeared this morning FTSE 100 7,197.00 -0.01 0.00% Brent Crude . . . $64.72 . (+0.15) . (+0.23%) GKP . . . 2,432 @ 208 Screencast.com 2019-02-15_0806 Shared from Screencast.com

MikeyAdmin 14 Feb 2019

Closing Prices 6,600 @ 900p has been removed tonight

MikeyAdmin 14 Feb 2019

Closing Prices Close . . . . 207.00930 Open . . . . 208.00 High . . . . .211.50 . . . . . Low. . . . . 207.2801 . . . MD Auc . . 930 @ 210.5p LSE Trades . . 520,072 . . . 339 Trades AT trades . . . . 240 OT trades . . . . 98 CP . . . 78,892 @ 211.00 FTSE 100 . . . 7,196.75 . (+5.91) . (+0.08%) Brent Crude . . . 64.23 . (+0.62) . (+0.97%)

MikeyAdmin 14 Feb 2019

Opening Prices FTSE 100 . . . 7,191.75 . (+58.61) . (+0.82%) Brent Crude . . . $63.56 . (+1.14) . (+1.83%) GKP . . . 14,983 @ 207p . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FTSE 100 . . . 7,209.04 . (+18.20) . (+0.25%) Brent Crude . . . $64.23 . (+0.620 . (+0.97%) GKP . . . 109 @ 208p

theoryman 13 Feb 2019

For those who like number puzzles VS8, having read some of the posts on the other boards about the significance of the 80%, I have to agree with you. I believe, but am quite willing to accept that I am wrong, that the working interest when applied to the revenue stream only applies to the Contractor’s Share. The Contractor’s Share being the sum of the Cost Oil route plus the (Profit Oil minus Gov reductions route) , which APPEARS to be 48.9% give or take a bit of the total revenue raised. At the moment GKP’ s share APPEARS to be 78% give or take a bit of that last number.

ValueSeeker8 13 Feb 2019

For those who like number puzzles theoryman: Why is everyone focussing on 80% rather than the much lower 38% which is the % of the revenue raised that ends up coming GKP’s way? I think there is confusion there between the total monthly revenue and the total contractor revenue (share). Out of the total revenue, contractors get their share as drawn by the PSC (52.2% 48.2% 48.9% I don’t know, you tell me) and then that gets divided between GKP and MOL. May be you are correct that it is 78% for GKP but I always thought that it is 80% for GKP and 20% for MOL.

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