Re: Share price how that 70p target going. nice little piece, you are de ramping to get try to influence the price. but whatever anyone says on these boards for a company the size of GENL it wont effect the price.
KRI political scene SULAIMANIYAH, Iraq The Kurdistan region of Iraq is fast descending into chaos, with protests continuing for the third day in some parts of Sulaimaniyah province and security forces using live ammunition to disperse them. Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has threatened to intervene militarily.Read more: [link] apparently unaffiliated broadcaster, NRT, appears to have been shut down.
Re: Share price - Payment No - the 'override' payments are the result of the Receivable Settlement Agreement, reached in August, to eliminate the backlog in favour of enhanced production payments going forward (see below). It's a good deal provided KRG continue to pay. [link]
Re: Share price - Payment Are there not arrears still due?
Re: Share price - Payment Yes - I agree. The statement unfortunately creates an element of doubt.
Re: Share price - Payment BoyobachMANY THANKS FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS.I checked back to last month (Tawke, $46.53 M) and the month before (Tawke, $39.50 M) and last month RNS also said "towards" rather than full payment. I believe it is just their phrasing, which could be clearer, rather than the amount due been partially settled. The amounts from Tawke have therefore increased in each of the last 2 months at least.Kind regards.
Re: Share price - Payment Well today's payment RNS seems to have provided the impetus that my last post was seeking. The sp sensitivity to payments now almost palpable. Will the lift last? The RNS wording isn't 100% reassuringNO ASA, as operator of the Tawke PSC, has announced the receipt of $54.32 million from the KRG as payment towards September 2017 crude oil deliveries to the export market from the Tawke licence. Payment 'towards' September deliveries - so not full payment ? Although Genl's Taq Taq and override payment appears to have been met in full this time.Meanwhile the region is rife with unrest, journalists being harassed and opposition politicians arrested - eg :From NRT:A special force has detained President of the New Generation Movement Shaswar Abdulwahid in Sulaimani on Tuesday (December 19). Abdulwahid was taken to an unknown place after he was arrested by a special force at the Sulaimani International Airport. The outlook for Genl is 'unsettled' at best in my opinion but, following the payment RNS, the I guess the sp might now cling to the 90-100p range until next month.
Share price Despite today's modest rise, the last month's 'highs' have been pretty tightly bounded by a downward trend that can be traced back to September and the fateful referendum. Unless this trend gets bucked soon, by a sustained price of 95p or better, the sp seems inevitably drawn to 82p next week and maybe even 70p by early in the new year. A pretty dismal reversal of fortunes due entirely to the political mess that has been overseen by the regions's government. So far contractual payments to Genel have been consistent and on-track but, in the absence of any other negative factors, it must be assumed that the sp will remain weak until the KRG has an established budgetary relationship with Baghdad with IOC payments transparently secured and protected. As previously declared, I am not currently a holder because of the perceived risk to payments
Anti KRG Protests Many protests against the government reported in KRI today. Largely motivated by non-payment of salaries and allegations of corruption. Taq Taq area involved:See NRT: [link] started in Sulaimani, Kalar, Ranya, Taqtaq, Chamchamal, Koya, Rawanduz, Halabja, Said Sadiq, and Qaladize as well as Takiya sub-district, Sangasar and Piramagroon in the Kurdistan Region in the early morning Monday.NB: Be wary of Kurdish media, much of which is aligned with political parties/tribes. Rudaw, for example, is quite notoriously pro KDP. The local economy appears to be more vulnerable now than at any time in the last three years.
Re: NO SUBJECT Cheers KT. I keep an eye on Genel - had high hopes for them in the early days and up to mid-2014, when the chain of misfortune started seriously. I accept that I'll never break even - it's more a matter of pulling back incrementally. In August GENL were on a recovery track, this has potentially been severely knocked by political fallout from the referendum. The KRG are financially broke and have pre-sold a lot of oil - that's where the main risk for Genel lies. Any improvement in Taq Taq will be a bonus: it wasn't in the share price.
Re: NO SUBJECT HiI do hold Genel and follow RNSs, occasionally BBs. Did see the refinancing RNS but did not realise the coupon was increased - just looked very generous compared to what one gets elsewhere.Taq Taq has been disappointing. And for me, the share price performance has been dis-appointing - sliding back when seemed it was finally improving.I must admit I follow Genel it less well than you do. Was worried when a while back many directors resigned - all of them within a week or so.Do write on the BB - I am sure many others also read it.Best wish
TFW no one else is posting and you no longer have any shares yourself....As tumbleweed drifts past this deserted BB, which hasn't even attracted a comment about the bond refinancing, it seems that many have decided to move on and that Genel's glory days are not to be.The proposed bond refinancing looks like a sensible move - reducing the debt by nearly 30% and extending maturity of the remainder to 5 years, albeit at an increased coupon of 10% - so the annual cost remains almost the same. It is, of course, a reminder of what might have been - of what was envisaged when the cash was first raised. It is also a reminder of how weak Genel's position to develop it's assets has apparently become. Could Genel ultimately find itself squeezed out of the gas project by a bigger 'partner' - like Rosneft? And Taq Taq - what of that? Some potentially good news about the northern flank, although the impact on reserve calculations remains to be seen.The KRG and the wider Iraqi economy need Genel's resources to keep producing and to be developed but will they honour the payments necessary to enable this? Clearly the market isn't convinced, small wonder given Genel's legendary 'bad luck'. So the sp continues the retrace it's been on since the ill fated Kurdish Referendum in September. There seems no point in even taking a wild punt until it finds some sort of base - perhaps at 82p or even less?
Re: £1.50's didnt hold up for long To clarify:their mishandled independence project. = KRG's mishandled independence project. (obviously)
Re: £1.50's didnt hold up for long In the aftermath of the KRG's disastrous handling of their Referendum and as news of the KRG's debt situation emerges over coming weeks, it's worth bearing in mind that much of it is apparently in oil that has been pre-paid and is still in the ground. The KRG just lost a huge chunk of that resource when they handed Kirkuk's oil back to Baghdad.Did Genel get pre-paid for future production? I don't think so.Was any of the pre-paid cash set aside to pay for ongoing production? Hmmm.If not, how is Genel to be paid?What is the KRG track record in these circumstances?The risk/reward ratio for Genel's investors appears to have sharply deteriorated since Oct 16th and the total collapse of their mishandled independence project.
Re: £1.50's didnt hold up for long I forgot to add that, given the circumstances, 110p looks a bit optimistic as a 'bottom' if KRG continue to mishandle the mess they have got themselves into. I've progressively pulled out completely for the time being and would not buy back at any price above 80p unless there is some political clarity.