reevesfamily4224
29 Aug 2018
Top Up Time Hi Buzz, rather intriguing as to what is going on . The market is weak today but the APF price is still progressing. A case of wait and see I suppose. I at the moment have bought between 108p and 149p and currently do not propose to sell any below 165 given its potential , let alone of course the regular quarterly dividend. S
The_buzz
28 Aug 2018
Top Up Time Another puzzling day - the price shot up to 150-154p, then went to 152-154p so shed 3030 shares for a good short term profit and to reduce a bit of my over exposure to one share. The turnover looks light to me so I presume that it must either be a great shortage of stock and chartists piling in, or the iis are active again. Coking coal price rose a bit as did thermal coal, but nothing significant to explain the price rise. Nor does the increase in the price of gold today. That said I have always thought that the share price had gone too low and this is a natural re-balance? A few more sales going through, so now 148-153p. [link] I suspect that these sales are from people like myself who have made a quick profit and badly over exposed to this share. One might surmise that once this resistance has been overcome that the share price will stabilise around here and perhaps head back to the previous high of 165p?? The Buzz
The_buzz
24 Aug 2018
Coking Coal Demand Well I have kept on droning about the latent demand for coal from India, as I could so no alternative to a huge increase in steel consumption as their economy rapidly grew. Here is an article confirming that viewpoint:- business-standard.com Fuelled by steel production, coking coal imports may climb to 58 mt by 2023 The domestic supply of coking coal is expected to be tepid despite a CAGR projection of 9.5 per cent in the comparable period “Imports of coking coal in the country is seen rising to 58 million tonnes (mt) by 2023, appreciating 23 per cent over the 47-mt recorded in 2017-18.†Plus positive news on coking coal demand [link] US sanctions may reduce their exports to Turkey - I surmise that Australia may benefit? [link] The Buzz
reevesfamily4224
23 Aug 2018
Interim Results Excellent results Buzz, income up 20 %, new acquisitions on the way, and acqusitions paid for in cash rather than indebting the company. Lovely to see a company with a clear and concise business plan executing it so well. Fingers crossed more will see the attractiveness of this company…especially with the dividend ! S
The_buzz
23 Aug 2018
Interim Results I could say that these results are boring as that do not tell us very much new information (if one looks at the RNSs that I posted previously), but they are the opposite as they re excellent results and JT is clearly excited about how things are going. anglopacificgroup.com 2018-Interim-statement-FINAL-website.pdf 1051.67 KB “JULIAN TREGER, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, COMMENTED: “Anglo Pacific has enjoyed a very successful start to 2018 with our overall income continuing to grow (+20% in H1 2018) principally due to higher commodity prices. We have invested US$51.0m in growth opportunities which complement and diversify our existing portfolio. In the short-term the sale of Kestrel suggests that volumes could double in the coming years as the new owners look to maximise their return. We have entered the second half of 2018 in a very strong position, with significant liquidity available to us, and we continue to actively pursue and appraise other royalty opportunities to add to the two acquisitions we have completed so far this year.â€â€ "Dividend As previously communicated to the market, we will review the overall dividend level for 2018 in Q1 2019 once our full year revenue has been confirmed, along with the outlook for 2019. In the meantime, the interim quarterly payment of 1.625p per share remains unchanged and the next payment will be the Q2 2018 dividend which will be paid on 15 November 2018. " “Outlook We are very pleased with our performance to date in 2018. We have seen income from our royalty portfolio continue to grow, translating into strong free cash flow which has been reinvested in two acquisitions. With documentation of a new larger borrowing facility well advanced we will soon have even greater financial flexibility to fund further growth. We look forward to the remainder of 2018 with cautious confidence given the outlook for commodity prices, particularly for premium products. This should lead to us reporting another year of growth in 2018 with the potential for significant production increase at Kestrel in the coming years.†AHA did you spot the bit about a larger borrowing facility?? Presumably with all this low risk income coming in, banks can see thst APF can service a large debt. If the income from a new royalty exceeds the corresponding debt interest then APF will benefit from the larger borrowing facility. One could speculate that a large new royalty is in the pipeline and is just waiting for the enlarged banking facilities to click in. This will leave APF with a wider royalty source with less dependence on Kestrel. One negative that has escaped me up to now is a dispute at 4 Mile Island about how much royalty should be paid. I judge this to be noise on the overall result. “Indo Mines†this is something that was not on my radar - but clearly has been satisfactorily resolved with a payment of $4.9m. Here s good statement:- "The outlook for commodity prices has also improved, with the forward price curve for both thermal and coking coal considerably higher than at the beginning of the year. This has had a positive impact on the balance sheet, with the Kestrel valuation remaining largely unchanged, despite the quantum of royalty income received. " Yes income is going to increase, but I also read that the valuation o Kestrel falls well short of its true value. This means the share valuation of about 120p understates the true value. Well I have read most of the statement but more to go. Am posting before the market opens. The Buzz
reevesfamily4224
22 Aug 2018
Top Up Time Hi Buzz, wow, what a great day. Well done you on topping up near the lows. Lets see what the next few days bring. S
The_buzz
22 Aug 2018
Top Up Time Wow A jump in price today to currently (13:34) 140-142p. That is a huge jump but I cannot identify a reason other than the proximity of the results and I suspect chartists recognised that the price was on the way up. It did not take much buying pressure to push the price up, indeed there were also sells of 100k and 50k. The one positive thing that I noticed is the rise in the price of gold to about $1200/oz, but this has little effect on the relatively small gold royalty. Perhaps a bit of help from Turkey putting up tarriffs on US coal and buying more Australian coal instead:- [link] Plus further positive news on coking coal price:- [link] … but this is still small news that is hardly going to change things much. Yesterday I had £5k ready to invest - it would have been wonderful timing. Instead the money was burning a hole in my pocket and bought some DVO instead - agreed that it has very slightly increased in price, but no where as much as APF! At least I had already bought loads before, but rally need the price to go above around 145 to make me more comfortable. The Buzz
The_buzz
21 Aug 2018
Top Up Time Wall to wall buys recently. Earlier got a quote for £5k buy and got quoted 129.98p, so abstained. Many buys are from private investors, so perhaps they are anticipating a rise when the the formal results are released on the 23rd. I already have too many APF, but they are very appealing at the current levels. Will top up if there is a retrace on the recent rise. No obvious market reasons for a share price movement other than sentiment for a US/ China deal. Coal price seems to be stable as is nickel holding up. I like this link [link] it seems to be virtually real time and more reliable than my usual source via my stockbroker web site!! In fact it just flagged a rise in the share price. Online spread now shown as 131.5-133.5p so the momentum of all those purchases seems to have worked through - surely this must be good sign for the chartists? Finally my cheapest purchase as showing a profit, but the rest still needs a more substantial recovery. The Buzz
reevesfamily4224
20 Aug 2018
Purchase of a 4.25% shareholding in Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp I agree copper looks likely and there is a member of the board who is of course Canadian with a mining background. The strategy of reducing reliance on Kestral is a very sound one as is spreading the risk so to speak. I am very heavily into APF at present but am sure will regret not buying in at below 130p. Not sure which day the trading update is this week but hopefully will be bullish… although the market as a whole just does not seem to be acknowledging what is going on in APF.I keep wondering what it will take to get a favourable response, not least as with a weak pound profits are even higher. S
The_buzz
19 Aug 2018
Purchase of a 4.25% shareholding in Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp Good morning, 23rd August given at the start of this RNS:- anglopacificgroup.com H1-18-trading-update-FINAL.pdf 234.29 KB Copper - brain engaged and I remembered that APF had recently bought a long term royalty for copper:- anglopacificgroup.com 180608-Canariaco-Royalty-Acquisition-Announcement.pdf 316.99 KB In the article is a speel by JT on his view on copper prospects:- “It is predicted that in the coming years declining copper grades at existing operations and the lack of recent investment into copper production capacity will lead to a supply deficit based on industrial demand sources alone. The incremental copper demand, driven by electric vehicle sales growth forecasts, creates conditions for an even tighter supply environment." I think that a copper royalty looks highly likely to me! The next question is in which jurisdiction? There seems to be a drift to N America in APF’s royalty acquisition - that makes some sense as they have a share listing in Canada, so having more ‘local’ royalties ought to be more attractive to Canadian investors and consequently widen the share ownership. With Trump imposing taxes on imports left right and centre, with reciprocal taxes by others, it makes me think that the USA might be a bit risky if copper gets into the argument?? A quick check to see if there are meaningful amounts of copper in Canada gave this link which confirms that there is loads of copper in Canada and several mining companies:- Investing News Network – 5 Dec 17 Copper Mining in Canada | Investing News Network A brief introduction to copper mining in Canada, including an overview of the country's geology and examples of companies working there. Oh I forgot to mention that I had a further top up on Friday. The Buzz
reevesfamily4224
18 Aug 2018
Purchase of a 4.25% shareholding in Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp Hi Buzz, just listened and very impressive.Thanks for the heads up. Exciting times with at least one more deal to come this year and by the sounds of it probably two. Interim results also announced next week I believe. S
The_buzz
17 Aug 2018
Purchase of a 4.25% shareholding in Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp Well worth listening to the interview. JT mentioned future dividend growth and he thought that APT was undervalued by many valuation metrics!! I also noticed that JT in the interview suggested copper or vanadium as possible royalties that they would buy. So the suggestion of copper in the sweep stake is now odds of favourite! I did a bit of research on copper and it seems to be a bit of a complicated story such as depending on whether mines are closed or not. My impression was that in the longer term there is a significant demand for copper that will have periods of shortages and should supply come along then the price will fall back. However my research was limited as APF have not yet bought a copper royalty. Vanadium is a good place to be, but V2O5 is at a high price at the moment so the royalty is likely to be more expensive than (say) earlier in the year when the price of V2O5 was depressed. The Buzz
The_buzz
17 Aug 2018
Uranium price 'jump' Spot price for uranium up a bit more at $26.1/lb [link] Perhaps my assessment is a bit premature, but it looks to me that the price of uranium is on a slow upward path. That should be good news for APF. The price of uranium is a slow plodding movement, quite a contrast to the violent swings of nickel:- markets.businessinsider.com Nickel PRICE Today | Price of Nickel and Chart | Markets Insider Nickel Price: Get all information on the Price of Nickel including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes. After some recent big falls it is currently shown as up $435 today. Another good day for coking coal:- [link] Oh now that it is of slight interest, here is my link for iron ore price. The plot only seems to work for me in pop up mode. NB one can change the interval - “M†gives a plot for a month cmegroup.com Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Futures Quotes - CME Group Find information for Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Futures Quotes provided by CME Group. View Quotes I must say that the closing price for APF was a big disappointment to me. I still have some firepower so if it stays at this level I might take another top up - but for a different investment reason. Over the years I have regularly made some quick profits on shares that have fallen back. One of my benchmarks for buying is do I perceive a quick 20% rise. If APF is 125p then I would look for a 25p rise to 150p - very conceivable. But of course there are the chartists plotting further falls…but when the chart signals change they all pile in! The Buzz
reevesfamily4224
16 Aug 2018
Purchase of a 4.25% shareholding in Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp Hi Buzz, fully agree with you excellent analysis. Safe territory, good mine and product, good income, and reduces reliance on Kestral. Also very good being fully paid off by year end. There cannot be many companies in this position and one hopes that the stock market and investors will eventually wake up to this. Some other bigger names carry incredible levels of debt. Not APF. In looking at your challenge it looks as though both copper and zinc have fallen back a little from their highs if I have read the right information. I am going to say copper…but it could be zinc. No. going with copper. S
The_buzz
16 Aug 2018
Purchase of a 4.25% shareholding in Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp The presentation to the analysts this morning gives lots more detail on the new royalty. Some good slides towards the end showing how the profile of APF has changed as a result of this transaction. One thought is that this is the first of an expected 2 to 3 transactions for this year. There will be plenty of money available with their existing banking facilities for another significant royalty this year. That will also have an impact on APF’s investment profile - and no doubt the borrowings will be rapidly paid off with the future royalty payments. The question of what the royalty will be is virtually impossible to answer as APF keeps on coming up with surprises. My best guess is a copper/ zinc royalty. Perhaps we should have a sweepstake? anglopacificgroup.com Anglo-Pacific-Group-4.25-LIORC-stake-purchase.pdf 876.82 KB
