Genel Energy - Re: GENL Stream Log - I was really bullish on...

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13:23 01/02/2016

I was really bullish on this stock due the value of its assets, and the interesting geographic position to gas-hungry Turkey. I was never worried about IS (airbombings by US started when IS came to close to oil reservoirs), nor about the tensions between Turkey and the PKK (The turks might hate the Kurds but they are not stupid, Kurdish gas is almost 3x as cheap as Russian gas and will provide more flexibility for the Turks. Furthermore Erdogan and his family make a lot of money through this relationship). However, with the oil prices staying low for a long time to come (unless supply disruptions in Middle east push POO up again) due to the American shaleproducers (whom will use every bounce in POO to hedge production), the KRG simply cannot pay the oil companies. Also, it seems international support for the Kurds is waning after lots of negative media coverage; Apparantly weapons delivered by the Germans were being put up for sale in local Kurdish markets, entire villages were being burned down after IS rebels were forced out of the villages and this lead to a lot of criticism from the likes of Amnesty, etc! Furthermore the political problems with the presidency in Kurdistan dont help. Therefore you see that every bounce in the share price is being used to sell; when the POO goes down so goes Genel, but when the POO goes up the shareprice of Genel doesnt!

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