Kool Keith
16 Apr 2018
Re: SP boost Thanks for flagging it up Uncle Doug, I hadn't finished building my position here but with today's news I'm up just shy of 10% so happy to see how this pans out. 2 links to the news below:-[link] [link]
Uncle Doug
16 Apr 2018
SP boost Looks like Costa demerger may be on the cards. SP up 10% as I type.Shares in Costa Coffee and Premier Inn owner Whitbread have jumped 6.5% in early trade on the news that Elliott Advisors, a unit of US activist hedge fund Elliott Management, has taken a 6% stake in the firm.The move by Elliott has led to speculation that Whitbread could be split up.Good article in FT but I can't copy it due to their copyright rules.
Triggers broom
06 Apr 2018
Website upgrade Nice to see they've addressed the corporate website and made it a lot easier to navigate. Looks good.
shieldbug
01 Mar 2018
Re: German Hotels "acquisition of a portfolio of 19 hotels in Germany, ... for an undisclosed sum" - Would be nice to know what they paid."The acquisition includes 13 leasehold hotels (comprising 2,140 rooms), which are already open and trading, and six committed pipeline leasehold hotels (comprising around 970 rooms)"I would prefer Premier Inn to be rolling out their own hotel specification, that they know works, rather than adopting someone else's design. Hopefully what they have bought fits or can be made to fit the Premier Inn model.
Hardboy
28 Feb 2018
German Hotels There have been many comments about WTB being ex growth, and operating in mature markets; but today's deal shows where they see growth coming from. The strategy seems sensible and simple - milk the mature markets, invest in new markets to feed the growth. It sounds like a good deal.
marktime1231
14 Feb 2018
Re: Dispatch him My own experiences of Premier Inn, the chips with everything buffet at that carvery place, and (although not a fan of cafe culture) a desire to back Costa Coffee over the tax dodgers at S*bucks drew me to WTB, I like to invest in places where I enjoy spending my own money. The ads are true, you can look forward to a comfortable night's sleep and a friendly helpful desk person to get you hooked up to the Wifi.As you know I am not clever enough to understand value, so I relied on other people's analysis of the prospects for what is a conglomerated mixture of businesses. WTB was plugged hard for its growth performance potential and progressive dividend prospects, unreserved Buy from IC and others even when it hit £50. I believed it was serious about fixing its disposable cup problem, and that its venture into Pure had merit.I have no idea where all the years of reinvested profit has gone, and despite a superior value experience Premier has not seen off the grotty alternatives. You know what has happened to the sp since, and the dividend is still crummy, so I checked out a while back. I can see why activists are talking about trying to split better value out of the group. Competition is fierce and the cost pressures have beaten the tourist boost from a weak pound.My hearing is about as reliable as my stock analysis, did he say "Sir Leonard", it was Sir something in a stupid mocking voice, I guess the tape is on the interweb somwhere.
Triggers broom
14 Feb 2018
Re: Dispatch him I can't believe the editor felt that 'documentary' was worth broadcasting to be honest. Using the PI brand in the title probably added a few to the viewing figures but it should have been clearly titled as about ISS rather than our beloved purple bricks and mortar.I've just made use of my 2 for 1 perk and spent a few nights in Devon and Cornwall PIs and although not perfect - breakfast buffet was on offer rather than the cooked to order option - they cannot be faulted for cleanliness, comfort, facilities and ultimately value for money. Hence why both hotels were more or less full judging by the car parks.All of the staff we met seemed engaged, unstressed and happy to be there so to label a documentary about one or two cleaners working in one hotel in London was poor journalism and well below the usual Dispatches level.Hopefully ISS will sack the speed merchant for gross misconduct as well. Minging.
Bill1703
14 Feb 2018
Re: Dispatch him "...then he crossed a line mocking the integrity of "Sir Leonard", Morland you oaf, for having the grace to stand by his endorsement. I actually like staying in Premier Inn too."I didn't see the programme, doesn't sound like I was missing much... beyond that can't really comment. Other than to point out that WTB regularly comes out very high - if not top - on reasonably authoritative, and independent, surveys of "best company to work for" and similar.I too like staying in Premier Inn, with my most recent (and highly satisfactory) stay only a couple of weeks back... the model works very well for me, and for quite a few others too I know. So not surprised if Sir Lenny (short for Lenworth, I believe) is indeed genuinely a fan too... though whether he is also, like me, a happy (enough) WTB shareholder is open to question...
megaloss
13 Feb 2018
Re: Dispatch him I saw the programme too, pretty much par for the course as far as Channel 4 is concerned. Always pushing their quasi-Marxist agenda, Channel 4 news is an aberration too, and WE own the bl**dy channel, how scandalous is that?When you have no skillset and are on minimum wage life is really really hard - but we all knew that already, surely? I'm sure ISS are doing as badly at present as all the other facilities management outsourcees and are not profiteering, so I've no idea what the point of the programme really was.Fortunately I'm sure only a handful of people would have been watching - everyone else is gorging out on Netflix...
marktime1231
13 Feb 2018
Dispatch him Currently not invested in WTB I was nevertheless very disturbed by the Dispatches non-documentary last evening on Premier Inn although it was hardly about them. Morland Sanders setting up a dummy agency cleaner at ISS who worked (deliberately ?) so slowly after training and initially showing proficiency she then acted up and despite extra help from a supervisor got told to catch up in her own time. Evidently then booted. Sometimes you sweat! Proving how unfair hard work on the minimum wage is, especially if you are unwilling or useless.Which makes Alison Brittain an undeserving fat cat. Garbage. Shame on Ch 4.And then he crossed a line mocking the integrity of "Sir Leonard", Morland you oaf, for having the grace to stand by his endorsement. I actually like staying in Premier Inn too.Did anyone notice the scene where the girl went off to shift in a lift carrying an almighty cup of Costa Coffee ... £2.65 right there, a room cleaned, a third of an hour on the minimum wage in her hand. Or a perk the programme failed to mention which went with the job, along with cheap pickings in the carvery next door at the end of breakfast servery etc? The clue that this was no destitute immigrant being abused, but rather a stereotypical time-poor tv production company runner.
Hardboy
07 Feb 2018
Re: Activist shareholder ups the ante... Thanks, Gents, We all seem to think along the same lines about what's the right thing to do at WTB. There is a case for splitting Costa & Premier, though as I pointed out in my last e mail (typing mistake and all) there are some synergies, and the brands can help promote each other; so for me, if both brands are making money, why sell one off? Let these guys buy a 30% stake in the business then they can really have a say in how it's run.
Bill1703
06 Feb 2018
Re: Activist shareholder ups the ante... "When all the cash has been handed back to shareholder, shareholder hands back the shares to the company saying sayonara !!... End result, a company in a mess loaded with debt -- and this practice is, believe it or not, entirely legal. Immoral, but legal... Private equity operates in a similar fashion, but usually behind closed doors..."Well, surely handing back shares to the company would be a successful share buy-back, Games? But apart from that... yes, and not just "similar" to PE - straight out the PE playbook, page 1. ..Hardboy, you are not going mad, it doesn't really work - perhaps one of these, maybe even two at a stretch, but not all three together! And why, exactly? In whose interests?! (I haven't seen any detailed report, only the headlines on the wires, so hard to be clear exactly what they're proposing).I am all for a bit of provocative activism where there is latent value which management seems unable and/or unwilling to realise, but not seeing that here... there IS a latent value story in separating Costa, but they know that already - and I don't doubt that eventual separation has been the plan all along, they just don't think the time is right yet (and I probably concur). And of course, they don't need to sell it, they can just demerge it to existing shareholders (unless someone offers them the "right" price).And sale and leaseback of hotels (and pubs?) has long been something WTB ARE doing, just in a measured and incremental way - all fine by me. Ultimately, they don't need the cash, and this all feels like "so last year" - leveraging up to the hilt, voluntarily, just when bond yields are surging would be strange indeed - 'suicide squad' stuff.All that said - if our activist ends up playing the role of stalking horse for a PE approach (which may of course be their not-very-well hidden agenda)... fine by me. Start me at £50 and you have my attention... and after that, you can do what you want!!
gamesinvestor
06 Feb 2018
Re: Activist shareholder ups the ante... """I was a bit confused by this bit, if I understood it correctly "Costa sale, sale and leaseback of Premier Inn, debt piled onto the balance sheet " - Sell half the business, sell all the property and increase debt? How does that work?"""HB it doesn't in reality but for the activist investor it's a dream come true and it's engineered to appeal to the shareholder who ultimately wants out.1. Sell the properties, hand back the cash to the shareholder2. Raise a load of debt - hand back the cash to shareholders3. Sell half the business - hand back the cash to the shareholder4. Meanwhile the excitement lifts the share priceWhen all the cash has been handed back to shareholder, shareholder hands back the shares to the company saying sayonara !!End result, a company in a mess loaded with debt -- and this practice is, believe it or not, entirely legal. Immoral, but legal.Private equity operates in a similar fashion, but usually behind closed doors, with all the debt raised whilst in private hands or upon flotation.All along the principle of "The Greater Fool Theory" -- there'll always be one ready to stump up the money.Games -- 28XX still on the cards?
Hardboy
05 Feb 2018
Re: Activist shareholder ups the ante... Thanks Bill, 3.4% stake and they want to tell the company what to do - Get real! Over at Shaftesbury Sam Lee has over 25% stake and still can't get them to do what he wants. I enjoyed my Cost Coffee with my Brewer's Fayre Breakfast the other day.I was a bit confused by this bit, if I understood it correctly "Costa sale, sale and leaseback of Premier Inn, debt piled onto the balance sheet " - Sell half the business, sell all the property and increase debt? How does that work?
Bill1703
05 Feb 2018
Activist shareholder ups the ante... Reports in the Sunday press that Sachem Head is pushing for the full package: Costa sale, sale and leaseback of Premier Inn, debt piled onto the balance sheet and cash returned to shareholders, etc.Broker snippets below (my own editing):JP MORGAN"These demands on cash, in particular, would seem to take the situationcloser to Sachem Head’s previous activist investments in Autodesk and CDK Global, and to our “aggressive” Sum-Of-the-Parts scenario of 5,830p (+53% potential upside), so that shares could react positively today. We continue to note that Sachem Head’s most successful activist investments have included tickets as high as $785m / 5.9% stakes, and the involvement of other activist funds, so that the board could have grounds not to consider these demands just yet (currently 3.4% interest in Whitbread ie $335m)..."BARCLAYS"In ‘What if?’, 3rd January 2018, we explored the potential upside associated with a Costa Sale and full opco propco separation. As we discussed at the time, we believe management is increasingly warming to the idea of a Costa sale (albeit after current turnaround initiatives have been implemented in 12-18 months)...We see a very low probability of management wanting to engage with an Opco Propco separation of Premier Inn, however... if Costa can be sold at 13x 18E EV/EBITDA this would add c261p to our 3920p base case (4181p). At 15x this would rise to 4442p. This represents 10% to 16% potential upside from the current share price. In the event that management were to embark on a full sale and leaseback this would increase these values to 4747p in our upside case or 5658p in our ‘blue sky’ scenario."
