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Ovets47 19 Oct 2017

Re: sealion still valued near to zero Having just re-read my earlier post, I realise it's rubbish!What I meant was that although some/most/all service contracts may extend beyond 2020, PMO & RKH still need to get a wiggle on, which I believe is what they're doing. They just happen to have rather a lot of head winds, most not anticipated when the embarked on all this.There are so many predictions for the next 20 / 25 years about the fall in demand for fossil fuels, the increase in renewables' energy production, the increase in World energy demands, etc. that it's impossible to obtain consistent correlation.Therefore, if I had the potential reserves known and anticipated around the FI, I think I'd be expediting its exploitation.

Robpug_uk 19 Oct 2017

Re: sealion still valued near to zero is that why it's going down Suresh lol

Suresh786 19 Oct 2017

Re: sealion still valued near to zero i topped up

Ovets47 19 Oct 2017

Re: sealion still valued near to zero From what I understood, some service contracts remain valid beyond 2020, so there's an incentive to get on with it ASAP.

goldieshotz 18 Oct 2017

Re: sealion still valued near to zero Concur with ovets alot of the contracts are ok i think til 2020 before the price needs renegotiated. I think a large chunk of it is the drilling of the wells though which isnt set in stone and could rise over time.

Ovets47 18 Oct 2017

Re: sealion still valued near to zero LTT, yes we're approaching the beginning of the end for fossil fuels to provide the World's main source of energy, but we ain't quite there yet.A lot of energy will be consumed before then and much of that will have to come out from under the ground/sea.Don't forget also, that fossil fuels will also be needed to create the new renewables, at least to start with.Regarding your question about why US shale is still thriving, I continue to believe it is an illusion as do many others. Yes, there's a lot of oil & gas there, but to extract it indefinitely and commercially in such abundance at the current PoO is the illusion. I believe it has a lot to do with unseating Putin. The US and others (e.g. UK & Netherlands, who have a serious interest in this) calculate that subsidising US shale production to keep the PoO low, is a lot cheaper way than going to war with Russia, which could be a total catastrophe with no certain outcome. It's taking longer than anticipated and it'll take a bit longer.A big unknown here is who/what will replace Putin? So often the outcome ends up being worse than the status quo.Finally, for now, you mention the rising costs of going into production. I spoke to Fiona at this year's AGM and she told me that RKH was busy negotiating service contracts at attractive rates, which would remain valid for up to 5 years, so perhaps a bit of a delay, while PMO gets its ducks in a row and the PoO recovers and stabilises isn't an issue, at least not yet.

Suresh786 18 Oct 2017

Re: sealion still valued near to zero market moves to the extreme sides, when shale starting pump in 2010 or earlier then market did not react and it took 5 years for market to realise the we are going into glut,same way market is behaving now as we go into production decline and market not reacting and not react until we are well into crunch / shortage of supplyin fair market the crude price should have fallen over slowly from 2010 to 2014 as shale kept ramping up but market kept sleeping and same could happen as we go into decline

goldieshotz 18 Oct 2017

Re: sealion still valued near to zero The people winning in shale oil are the lenders, as oil has stayed roughly $50's for a long time now it allows the shale companies to make enough to pay debt with a tiny amount left over to reduce the decline rates by adding new wells. The real money in shale is therefore not in the oil itself but the bonds and loans being given out. Same could be said of the high debt european convential producers like pmo and enquest, the only people winning there are the bondholders. Until oil is above $60 the companies like this are slowly going to decline in revenue as production declines are not replaced due to limited capital after costs.The real growth from oil stocks now is in the junior minnows with no debt and good quality assets, m&a season is just around the corner and i fear the days of some of these marvelous companies may be over. Will the rock survive, i actually think it will purely because a major will not want trouble in south america unless they dont own anything down there already. It puts the rock at the back of the line.

Ovets47 18 Oct 2017

Re: sealion still valued near to zero I think most of us have pretty much worked all that out, which is why we continue to hold, or even accumulate.However, until there's a tangible announcement actually saying that something's going to happen, all we can do is speculate, which while interesting and passes the time, doesn't do much for the sp.Anyway, best of luck and I agree with what you posted.

marunam1 18 Oct 2017

Re: sealion still valued near to zero They have decided to go ahead, but need a breakthrough on the export finance and contractor loans and FIG yeilding a little. Tenders have been recieved some time ago and have most likely been graded. Interest from contracters loaning to the project have been confirmed and bids recieved,no doubt in my mind they will sanction at POO being $55 and above .Also , when there is a whiff of a deal with export finance then see how much the dynamics change and how quickly. When they get a more concrete idea of the size of the loans from the projects contractors there will be a sea change in the outlook. I would have thought this would help those who are considering the export finance decision as they will see that the contractors themselves also belive in the project.How much they raise from the contractors will be very telling as to how much PMO need to put in themselves and if the amount is feasable then it will be sanctioned imo. Also , when there is a whiff of a deal with export finance then see how much the dynamics change and how quickly. I feel PMO will try to get it financed first, then look for a partner as there will be more value in it for them . This is still a time to accumulate here imo.

Ovets47 17 Oct 2017

Re: sealion still valued near to zero Suppose that's how it'll stay until someone decides, and more important, tells us what they're going to do with it.

Suresh786 17 Oct 2017

sealion still valued near to zero if you take out cash in bank and value current production of egypt and meditarionso sealion zero and development carry value as zero

Suresh786 17 Oct 2017

Re: POO its approx. 3% of daily production / consumption of worlddrop of 3% in coming few years unless new fields replacing that drop

goldieshotz 16 Oct 2017

Spare a thought For the thousands of lads and ladies manning the ships, rigs and platforms around the UK tonight, looks like this storm/hurricane is gonna swing straight across scotland into the northern grabin.

hioyo 16 Oct 2017

Re: POO I reckon it will be a long time if ever before that comes about.

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