The buzz
01 May 2018
Coal Price Strong at the Moment Inspection of the col price at the moment indicted to me that both coking and thermal coal prices are hold up.eg SA thermal coal for export:-[link] currently $97.15mt for export now. Surely MLM should be making good money if these prices hold up.I just find it puzzling why the MLM share price does not reflect the potential for strong future earnings. I guess just like with HUM (just released some excellent results) the market needs some magic threshold to be crossed before they start to fall over each other to buy some shares?The B
The buzz
26 Apr 2018
Re: Quarterly Report Just done a small top up of 6k shares at 34.85p a share. This price sounds too low to me, especially as an earlier trade is shown at 35.45p. Perhaps the two sells for 4k shares has brought the price down. I feel that the brokers do not want to hold too much of this stock. The counter argument is that if someone wants some stock then it might be in short supply. A dummy buy for 5k shares was just quoted to me also at 34.85p a share.The B
2bozmo
26 Apr 2018
Re: Quarterly Report Agreed. People having a flap over land access. JSE line not traded.Cash positive for quarter. Very positive.
The buzz
26 Apr 2018
Quarterly Report OK the Uitkomst report was a bit disappointing - but it is only a quarterly report, the production issue should be fairly straightforward to resolve - and still did OK due to high price of coal - plus increase of 5.4k tonnes still to sell. Ironic that one problem was due o rainfall!HOWEVER, the share price has fallen to 34-36p - it seems to completely overlook that the main event is the Makhado (and others) mines and that Uitkomst is really a side show.The B
hedger123
24 Apr 2018
What the I was expectingLand access for remaining Salaita and Lukin farms (April);NOMR for GSP (April);Off take agreements for Makhado (May);Vele to be announced for sale or discussions taking place (June);Financing for Makhado to be finalised (Sep);North adit development at Uitkomst (Sep)Rand, coal prices and industrial developments in South Africa regarding coal all moving in right direction. If anyone could explain who is selling and why we continue to languish then I’ld love to know.
The buzz
24 Apr 2018
Re: Article Sounds like Makhado Lite will be a foregone conclusion. It makes me wonder if the cancellation of the 'corrupt' nuclear power deal has contributed to this new coal fired power station:-[link] the JSE getting stronger it makes me wonder at what point will the market revalue MCM?Today's RNS with new FD is interesting - a previous FD at Impala Platinum sounds like a good background - possibly escaping platinum mining as that is going through a torrid time at the moment.I also noticed that the oil price is holding well so that should support the price of thermal coal. My perception is that the price of SA thermal coal is still strong and should be filling the coffers of MCM:-[link] B
2bozmo
23 Apr 2018
Article [link] positive from Zoutnet. This is going to happen.
hedger123
03 Apr 2018
Re: Thoughts Great post Bozmo. This would indicate we should be trading around 4 quid when Makhado is running at full capacity, plus however far we’ve progressed GSP. I also think this is a realistic target given how far we’ve come.
2bozmo
29 Mar 2018
Thoughts As nobody has posted for some time, these are a few thoughts. i think we start moving higher shortly and maybe very quickly:Everything is going to plan currently, ticking all the boxes although we£re dealing with South Africa so things much not be going as quickly as we hope but we£re getting there and Makhado is definitely going ahead.So what are we expecting in near future?i) Land access to be granted; by all accounts this has been signed off by Minister so imminent; ii) Off -take agreements to be completed by May/June;iii) Financing completed Q3;iv) Vele to be announced as up for sale;v) Greater Soutpansberg Projects (GSP) to be granted NOMR; estimate ETA by end April;vi) North Adit at Uitkomst around end Q3;vii) Second CGA (?)Note:i) Once i)-iii) are approved then no question we£re going ahead. Peel Hunt only have 40% probability attached, and have a NPV of $206m for Makhado;ii) Selling Vele and increasing Uitkomst production with North adit development takes us into self-sufficiency. While Vele won£t officially be announced as up for sale until after the June board meeting maybe it already is?!iii) It£s been noted previously we are speaking with the likes of Glencore, ArcelorMittal and Vitol. Big players. One of these names will help financing.iv) No increase in share issuance to fund Makhado. No dilution. This is important. v) Development of North Adit going ahead regardless;vi) Once Makhado is completed, Peel Hunt estimate company will generate EBITDA of $80m (or ~40p/share assuming no dilution). Micro:i) New Mining Charter to boost Industry;ii) No development in SA mining sector in recent years so prices to remain high;iii) SEZ will boost demand for coal from GSP;Macro:i) Coal prices remain firm;ii) China have lifted overseas investment ban. Have strong demand for clean coal;iii) SARB cut rates yesterday and their model indicates limited appreciated for rand;
hedger123
15 Mar 2018
Re: Results [link]
hedger123
15 Mar 2018
Results 2.15 cents/share profit from UitkomstImpairment on Vele means we’ll sell itPretty decent. No new info. Might be more in conference call.
The buzz
15 Feb 2018
Zuma Now Gone! [link] near front of BBC's "Business Live" news page:-[link] aims to restore confidenceToday Programme BBC Radio 4The South African rand has jumped sharply after confirmation of Jacob Zuma's resignation but is the rise justified?Maike Currie, investment director at Fidelity, thinks so. She tells Today: "Under Jacob Zuma, South Africa has seen some of its darkest days since it became a democracy. South Africans have been sitting on the edge of their seats waiting for this change and finally the change has come."She welcomes the appointment of deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa as the country's new leader. "He is a businessman, he’s a skilled negotiator, and he’s really the man South Africa needs to restore investor confidence in the country.""Increased business confidence ought to help the prospects for MCM - but so far there is no obvious change on the share price at the opening of the London market... Just another "tick in the box" for things going the right way for MCM.The B
2bozmo
13 Feb 2018
Re: Vele has Water! If I recall from my conversations at the AGM, they were expecting this to be granted this quarter with a decision to be taken at the March board meeting. I got the impression that DB would rather sell it because of the money required to get back into production plus its location. I think the Chinese shareholders were also keener for them to sell so they could push forward with Makhado. Any idea what we would get for it? I think it’s now a viable proposition given the current coal prices. Your memory is correct buzz, it was previously mining without a water license.
Iclaude
13 Feb 2018
Re: Vele has Water! The situation in South Africa, politically, is in flux. The Government have always viewed the production of coal for power and export as an important part in the redevelopment of the country. This is another step along the way and the results of The A.N.C's deliberations over Jacob Zuma being settled peacefully will perhaps bring about a more trusting environment to do business in. The risk is still there but less so.
The buzz
13 Feb 2018
Vele has Water! RNS out today saying IWL approved for Vele. Another tick in the box.Coal prices are holding up well so the re-opening of Vele must be a serious proposition to either MCM or another operator. Vele used to be their big white hope so it has been frustrating that this has dragged on for so long. Have I got memory fade or was it not Vele that had all the political upheaval with CZA being accused of operating illegally without an IWL?? Time marches on and finally Vele is now all systems go. As always the share price does not seem to have registered the significance of this event. Ah well, there must come a time when the number of 'ticks in the boxes' reaches a level where they cannot be ignored. The B
