The_buzz
23 Aug 2018
Price Rise! Thanks for the update. Now 21-22p on my screen. If a peanuts size 50k share sale can knock the price so much, then the converse presumably applies when some good news comes and new purchase orders come through? There was some confusing posts (to me) re MCM on LSE bb. It seemed to me to say that one of the landowners that is holding up Makhaido is subject to land confiscation, but perhaps I got the wrong end of the stick here. I do not see land confiscation applying to MCM as it is fully compliant with black ownership in its shareholdings. Anyway they would not want to upset our Chinese share holders with so much investment money promise for SA! Coal price is good, but not as high as the corresponding Australian thermal coal. Is the Australian coal better quality with less pollution or what? I thought that MCM’s coal was high quality, so presumably they would get a premium price. The Buzz
2bozmo
22 Aug 2018
Price Rise! Someone on JSE sold 30k and another 20k so that was marked lower so with Gbp/Zar it got marked lower in London. Why sold? No idea. Thought we might be getting closer to the end game if government are stepping up land expropriation, but maybe this Akkerland Boerdery story is just trying to get some interest up in the properties as there’s the government land claim and our case being played out. I think we’re meeting with the owners in the coming week to talk about commercial deal. Some nervousness around SA at present but think we’re well positioned but could be negative growth implications for SA further down the line. Disappointing but see what tomorrow brings.
The_buzz
22 Aug 2018
Price Rise! Price seems to have suddenly dropped on my screen to 20-22.6p from 23-24p. A drop of about 2p or so, and a relatively wide spread. A bit odd as previous trades were in 23-24p price range for relatively modest amount of shares. Cannot se anew RNS either. Puzzling as the coal price has remained firm. Anybody have any clues?? The Buzz
2bozmo
19 Aug 2018
Land expropriation This is key, article doesn’t mention we have NOMR so have rights to land access. Worth a read. Have heard company are meeting with landowner to try and reach a commercial deal so hopefully this will have long drawn out Court process News24 – 19 Aug 18 Dispute after state authorised expropriation of farm In a case being disputed in court, the expropriation of a Limpopo farm has been authorised following the owners’ rejection of the compensation offered.
The_buzz
15 Aug 2018
Exchange Rate - Good for MCM? Reading down sounds like a positive news item for S African coal exports: [link] The Buzz
2bozmo
15 Aug 2018
Exchange Rate - Good for MCM? image.png1923x868 159 KB Coal Prices in Rand…
2bozmo
15 Aug 2018
Exchange Rate - Good for MCM? This is definitely a positive, and for the valuation of Vele if they are looking to sell it. The depreciation of the Rand over the last week is more to do with an element of EM contagion from what’s going on in Turkey than South African politics itself.
The_buzz
14 Aug 2018
Exchange Rate - Good for MCM? I note that the Rand has significantly fallen in value recently so presumably their cost in Rands translate in to a lower cost in US$ and hence improve the profit margin at Uitkomst. I suspect that part of the fall is due to wild talk about confiscating land. I would suspect that this does no apply to MCM as they already have black empowerment partners.
The_buzz
02 Aug 2018
Price Rise! RNS on Uitkomst sounds good news and is very upbeat [link] BUT what is amazing is the spread on opening has gone to 21-24p (from 20-23p) (no trades so far). An unheard of price increase in the share price!! Coal price is still strong - and I feel that the share price must surely have bottomed now. I am now feeling quite optimistic that the share price might be re-rated - I need it considering my still high averaged down price with far too many top-ups! The Buzz
2bozmo
27 Jul 2018
Chinese investors plan $10 billion metallurgical complex in South Africa Right on our doorstep… Kitco News – 27 Jul 18 Chinese investors plan $10 billion metallurgical complex in South Africa Kitco News collects and features the top financial, economic and geopolitical news from around the world. Kitco's aggregated sources include some of the top newswires in the world including the Association Press, Canadian Press, Japanese Economic... JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Chinese investors signed agreements to build a $10 billion metallurgical complex in South Africa during President Xi Jinping’s state visit this week and hope to start construction next year, an executive involved in the project and a provincial official told Reuters. South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa said at a joint news conference with Xi on Tuesday that China had committed to invest $14.7 billion in the South African economy, but neither leader mentioned the $10 billion complex. Ramaphosa is on a mission to kick-start economic growth after a decade of stagnation and is targeting $100 billion in new investment over five years. The complex, which is still in the planning stage and envisages building a stainless steel plant, a ferrochrome plant and a silicomanganese plant, is a much-needed vote of confidence in the sputtering South African economy. Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies said on Tuesday that China was considering a metallurgical project in a special economic zone (SEZ), but he did not reveal the scale of the project or timeframe. The executive involved in the project, who did not wish to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said memoranda on the complex were signed before Xi and Ramaphosa gave news conference on Tuesday. “The investors for the SEZ project were in the room when Ramaphosa and Xi spoke to the press,†the executive said. Richard Zitha, a project executive at the Musina-Makhado SEZ where the complex will be based, said the project was being led by Chinese state-owned companies, but he declined to name them. He said the Chinese investors would look for Black Economic Empowerment partners to comply with South African rules designed to address racial disparities more than two decades after the end of apartheid. The investors were open to investors from other countries joining at a later stage, he said. “The investors have been in South Africa for around a week and have visited mines to look for inputs for the project,†Zitha said. The Musina-Makhado SEZ is in Limpopo province close to South Africa’s borders with Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Botswana. The SEZ plans to house plants with a capacity of 3 million tonnes per annum of stainless steel, 3 million tonnes per annum of ferrochrome and 500,000 tonnes per annum of silicomanganese. Those capacity targets are subject to change and will be finalised by the end of the year, the executive said. A coal-fired power plant, coking plant and coal washery will be built alongside the metallurgical plants, a presentation prepared for investors showed. Some of the steel output for the complex has been earmarked for export to China, while other products would be sold to countries in southern Africa, the executive said. South Africa is already a major exporter of metal alloys to China. Investors are hoping to receive the necessary environmental approvals by the end of March and would then start construction, Zitha said.
2bozmo
26 Jul 2018
Quarterly update RNS Don’t think this was too different from expectations. I’ve no doubt land access will be granted and 2 concurrent court processes ongoing now. Only question is how long this takes. I know these were hoping to come to agreement with the farm owners. Only thing seeming stopping up is land access. Offtake will be complete by September quarter and discussions I’ve had would suggest project finance isn’t an issue. Good news that Uitkomst is getting back on track, and that we’re taking over contractor. Ahead of budget, both in terms of revenue and cash generation. Hopefully some news on developing North Adit next quarter .
The_buzz
24 Jul 2018
Peel Hunt comment on today’s RNS accidental part 2:- U.K. – 24 Jul 18 India's thermal coal imports rise over 14 pct in Q2 - trader India's thermal coal imports rose by more than 14 percent in the second quarter of 2018 from a year earlier, putting the energy-hungry nation on track for a rise in annual imports after two straight years of decline. Note 1/5 of coal comes from S Africa so this surely must be supporting prices for some time to come. The Buzz
The_buzz
24 Jul 2018
Peel Hunt comment on today’s RNS Record India Coal Demand.
The_buzz
17 Jul 2018
Peel Hunt comment on today’s RNS I see that since April the ZAR to US$ exchange rate has gone from about 12 to 13 per US$. Looking at what I think is the fundamental price driver ie Australian thermal coal - August 2018 is now $117.5/mt:- Barchart.com ICE NewCastle Coal Aug '18 (LQQ18) Futures Price Quote - Barchart.com Free futures price quote for LQQ18. Latest real-time Bats price quote, charts, financials, technicals and opinions. S African coal price seems to be lagging with August 2018 at $106.4/mt seems to me to be out of step and due to rise in my opinion:- cmegroup.com Coal (API4) FOB Richards Bay (ARGUS-McCloskey) Futures Quotes - CME Group Find information for Coal (API4) FOB Richards Bay (ARGUS-McCloskey) Futures Quotes provided by CME Group. View Quotes The bottom line is that thermal coal price remains very strong and must be reflected in MLM’s income and in he intrinsic value of assets such as Vele. The Buzz
HPC_Follower
05 Jul 2018
Peel Hunt comment on today’s RNS I’m in much the same boat too… but can’t justify averaging down with all the current uncertainty. Would have liked to have kept Vele, but the cash is more valuable to commence other production and bring in revenues whilst the coal price and demand is strong.
