Re: Both Platinum report next month?
Re: Both Platinum Look back in the posts and in the 70s I did say this was bottoming out Higher lows all the time now . Bodes well IMO
Re: Both Platinum buyers are back. moving up nicely.
Re: Both Platinum & palladium Not sure about 200p but should get to 120p no problem
Both Platinum & palladium Doing very well. Palladium in touching distance of $1000 , platinum catching up. First need Uptrend signal is in the chart in my view ( higher low) I love these commodities plays . Fxpo was such a beauty to be long , Kaz etc , am seeing signs of Lonmim doing the same .Be happy to see 200p again We put in a higher low now we need a higher high to kick off a good trend . Bet once this pushes north of 100p ( IF it does ) many will return to follow the technicals of anything .
Re: Futures up nicely this morning Glad I bought in on Tuesday. Looks like this is moving up nicely.
Re: Futures up nicely this morning I agree I mistook it for the handle of a cup. But it could well be a pennant.Plus the 2 metals are doing very well . It's all very good news today IMO Palladium flying towards $1000 and platinum most importantly pushing back up
Re: Futures up nicely this morning I am now seeing a bullish pennant forming if it breaks to the upside we should quickly see 96p.[link]
Flying palladium today Am getting more and more tempted to be bullish here as both main metals are doing well. Platinum avoided a lower low and seems to want to resume uptrend , whilst palladium about 25% of our revenues is flying and I suspect a retest of recent highs is coming .LMI cup and handle is my suggested formation appearing and that is usually bullish Could well set itself up for a retest of 100p .
Re: Futures up nicely this morning Depends how you want to see it . The drop post the spike has found support and good commodity prices have as we have seen in the latest RNSs provided good cash builds . Obviously production and rand are factors too. Trend in the short term is showing higher lows and a mini cup and handle ? Am not in front of my proper screens , so will check later
Re: Futures up nicely this morning hasn't made one jot of difference though
Futures up nicely this morning for both platinum and palladium . Hoping my view is correct, i.e. Both commodities finding support and bouncing up from it, should also be reflected in LMI share performance . Let's see , ideally I would like to see support for the higher low and then see it move up. If not my view is invalidated .
Re: Got the timing spot on Hi Nice You actually make one of the best posts on this debate I have read in ages . So I am foremost a technician now but am qualified for both types of analyses .What TA gives a trader is exact entry and exit levels based on a statistical back tested rule . ( if like me you trade systemically and not discretionary ) . It also gives a clear risk management and position sizing method . In fact I am slowly moving to trading more like a quant with purely statistical methods . Slowly slowly as I did all the learning alone . What TA does not do is assign any value to the stock or asset class . Fundamental analysis will not teach you what level to buy or sell . Ask any CFA holder or Accountant and they wouldn't know . They will look at value in depth and create models around that . They know the value of the stock, but as I always say they don't understand price . Especially sentiment is something not all understand . Buffet knows value better than anyone but he made his wealth by compounding long term bets and dumping the losing stocks . He is not a trader in the pure sense . He is so far the best investor ever . If you have both skills and qualifications in my view it's best to stick to one for trading purposes but know both for identyfing most angles and investing . You need to understand if you are a trader or investor . Another example is if I see a TA buy signal on a shell or micro cap with no earnings revenues etc or hidden pension liabilality in the accounts in this case I prefer not to get involved . Same as shares with a buy signal but who are boring defensve stocks with low volatility . ( great for a portfolio to compound dividends in an ISA) but a low beta stable earnings firm is usually a low volatility boring stock to trade , in fact it's a poor idea with small trading accounts . Safe but won't be delivering much in the short term .I highly respect CFA , accountants , technicians and am 2/3 of those. May get my CFA started next year too . So I have all 3 . the second part of your posts therefore shows the problem really well. I was stopped out of LMI and lost 1 position * stop loss . I now reloaded as per Wednesday. Almost added a second too On fundamentals I could have held, as I posted that both platinum and palladium had been doing well. We now see that as the case in cash terms . So to conclude the reason one chooses to stick to the plan is that if you keep on switching methodology you won't be able to determine your actions' statistical implications due to randomness . To measure a strategy you need to stick to it .As mine works and my equity curve moves up I stick to what I feel is my edge . Hoping that am not just fooled by randomness .. Hope that helps
Re: Got the timing spot on Fair enough.A few points: Knowing what one is talking about is far from always correlated to being right on a given call in the stock market My instinct is you're good at charting and I think you're good at fundamentals too.... Indeed I'm wondering if you drawing on decent fundamental knowledge here has stood you in better stead than your drawing on charts here?eg When this chart unexpectedly fell from approx 100p to approx 67p would your charting rules not have had you sell out in say the 80's or 70's ? Yet you didn't because of the fundamental understanding you have here: PoP, net cash generation,repaired balance sheet, currency movements etc.Therefore is it not unfair to fundamentalism for you to credit charting too much here.. even why not credit your fundamental understandings helping you and discredit the charts somewhat? ( eg your charts said when this was at100p that it would likely go to 120p and it didn't and also they didn't say it would instead fall from 100p to 60's instead etc.. whereas because of what you believe are decent fundametals you hung tight? )
Re: Got the timing spot on I was predicting a breakout indeed and lost that one Where does it say that any technical trader has to 100% right the whole time ? Also note am the only one who posts good and bad ones . The other thing you need to understand is position sizing When I scan for breakouts and decide that a trend may be forming I enter with 1 of 4 positions. I explained in the past that I took a similar approach to the Turtle Trade on position sizing and risk management , ( you often hear me discuss ATR stops or trailing stops ) Now what I try to do is the obvious , I.e. Keep my losses low if 1st position fails whilst if the breakout is a good one and keeps the trend going like FXPO longs at 70 or Ithacas or Foxtons shorts , then I add 3 other positions at pre determined intervals to get a fully loaded position . I do the odd out if rule trade if momentum is too high . Hope that helps explain . Plus your last paragraph misunderstands the point , lately I posted about the stock bottoming , ie 2 days ago. Today 2 days later we had the RNS , this is what I meant by bad timing . Easy . I can't predict to the minute a breakout 2 days in advance . Nobody is that good . Wish this is now understood as these bb's are now used just to attack the few who actually know what they are talking about. It's not useful nor clever. ATB