Re: Take-Over RNS - 16 March 2018: "Sibanye-Stillwater files with competition commission Sibanye-Stillwater (Tickers JSE: SGL and NYSE: SBGL) and Lonmin Plc ("Lonmin" advise that Sibanye-Stillwater has filed a submission with the South African competition authorities, with regard to the proposed acquisition of Lonmin which was announced on 14 December 2017 (the "Proposed Transaction". As is required by the South African Competition Act No. 89 of 1998, the required stakeholders have also been duly notified. Sibanye-Stillwater and Lonmin remain fully committed to the Proposed Transaction which they continue to expect to close in the second half of this year. Neal Froneman, CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater, and Ben Magara, CEO of Lonmin, commenting on the filing, said: "We are delighted to have filed the submission with the South African competition authorities. The Proposed Transaction remains in the best interest of stakeholders and will create a leading mine-to-market producer of PGMs in South Africa."
Re: Take-Over Can not log on ( D ) or e-mail this morning.Old 63p buy limit lifted ( set two week ago )@ 9.08Two parts both show as sells ( not the buys they are ) Trade type "AT" ( not the type "O" jaf said there deals show as ( GCM yesterday ))
Re: Take-Over Looks like it is still on .Was a notification e-mail yesterday but no update on offer.
Re: Stopped out No mention of take-over since my original comment of 14.12.2017.I must admit not following the take-over since. If the deal has not yet been done, then LMI appears to me to be becoming less and less attractive to a suiter - and then there is a risk of the deal folding. Sorry nothing much to add here.The B
Re: Stopped out You say nothing about the take over offer buzz ?
Re: Stopped out I have just been going through the e-mails and spotted my name mentioned and so I have had a quick revisit of the figures in my simplistic way. I had a look at my earlier post and the thing that sticks out is the $/Rand exchange rate:-[link] LMI costs are quoted in Rand, then the recent strengthening of the Rand means that they get fewer Rand for their PGMs - I posted in November when the exchange rate was about 14 Rand per $ but now it is of the order of 12 Rand per $.Platinum currently about $950/oz[link] at 14 Rand/$ gives 13,300 Rand/oz - giving a profit margin with costs of about R11,500/oz. However, at R12/$ the income falls to R11,400 ie No profit margin at the moment, in fact at the current R11.87/$ ( ie~R11280/oz) they would be operating at a loss. (Of course some of their costs such as fuel will be priced in $ so it is not that simple).It is ironic that one of the negative reasons that I gave was the apparent unwelcome political environment for miners: the subsequent introduction of a more business orientated politician may well have made things worse as it probably contributed to the strengthening of the R/$ exchange rate.To conclude, things seem to be getting more challenging than made my previous post. With the price of gold relatively quite high now (about $1330/oz) I am not sure if there will be much increase in the price of PGMs so the future may just hinge on the exchange rate. So I do not think that LMI is a share that I see a clear 'buy' case for at the moment.The B
Re: Stopped out Got an e-mail saying offer had changed in some way but i can not see what ?Maybe someone can explain .share price has strengthened in last week .
Re: Stopped out This was an all share offer ?Notice Sibanye has a NYSE listing .. is that what we would end up with rather than JSE .Or have they said they are keeping LSE ?
Re: Stopped out That offer looks in danger as the Sibanye - Stilwater price has dropped off.The buzz posted the price dropped to 74p.. when i last posted here.See it dropped to 60p around Christmas.63p yesterday
Re: maybe this has turned back up now regulators have to approve first too.. cartelling by fewer players towards higher prices etc might not be seen as good.... plenty are saying that sgl will reduce combined output towards pushing up PGM prices and other producers will reciprocate..
Re: maybe this has turned back up now LMI now has detached from SGL price drop too over extending the drop . Must say that am tempted . the deal is ages away anyway and at these levels doubt it gets accepted , as offer is now too low vs assets . As platinum and palladium are doing rather well this divergence may well be the one to trade. Have to say that I though 67ish ( trend line ) was going to hold ) 1113 SGL implies deal at 66,4p ! vs 63.4p LMI now . A deal board at this point can do better if especially if dollar stays weak and metals rise , especially palladium which is at $1035 and Platinum a whisker away from $1000 at $995. Am not sure if shareholders will agree a deal which is far away anyway . Much can change in my view .
Re: maybe this has turned back up now Fair point shugg1e but if you think sgl is now oversold buying into LMI is appealing.. also this bid was a low baller to begin with imho and getting less appealing again and again as we go.. I'm more and more thinking the current bid will, one way or other, fail.. and they might in some way change it to make it a better offer.....whatever it may be a bumpy/volatile road for LMI in the short term.... so betting here is for hard core players only imho.. Generally, I don't see why LMI can't succeed on it's own.. at current levels of PGM it's doing reasonably imho..... and the now President seems to be more pro business ... PS: asset value write downs are very subjective/gaming imho, P+L is the key thing..
Re: Big drop today Sibanye shares down about 16pc at a 12 month low. LMI will track the Sibanye share price making for some good trading opportunities. The LMI directors have recommended the bid even though they own no shares, will a higher bid materialise, who knows. Related commodity prices not too bad at present.
Big drop today Down 14% to under 68p.Does any one the reason?Thxnk
Re: maybe this has turned back up now Totally dependant on SGL share price now and is moving in correlation with that.The terms of the offer are laid out so buying in now is totally pointless as the only reason its fallen is the fact the SGL share price tanked from 1600 to 1300DYOR