Nice to Michu
23 Feb 2018
Re: maybe this has turned back up now regulators have to approve first too.. cartelling by fewer players towards higher prices etc might not be seen as good.... plenty are saying that sgl will reduce combined output towards pushing up PGM prices and other producers will reciprocate..
onedb1
23 Feb 2018
Re: maybe this has turned back up now LMI now has detached from SGL price drop too over extending the drop . Must say that am tempted . the deal is ages away anyway and at these levels doubt it gets accepted , as offer is now too low vs assets . As platinum and palladium are doing rather well this divergence may well be the one to trade. Have to say that I though 67ish ( trend line ) was going to hold ) 1113 SGL implies deal at 66,4p ! vs 63.4p LMI now . A deal board at this point can do better if especially if dollar stays weak and metals rise , especially palladium which is at $1035 and Platinum a whisker away from $1000 at $995. Am not sure if shareholders will agree a deal which is far away anyway . Much can change in my view .
Nice to Michu
22 Feb 2018
Re: maybe this has turned back up now Fair point shugg1e but if you think sgl is now oversold buying into LMI is appealing.. also this bid was a low baller to begin with imho and getting less appealing again and again as we go.. I'm more and more thinking the current bid will, one way or other, fail.. and they might in some way change it to make it a better offer.....whatever it may be a bumpy/volatile road for LMI in the short term.... so betting here is for hard core players only imho.. Generally, I don't see why LMI can't succeed on it's own.. at current levels of PGM it's doing reasonably imho..... and the now President seems to be more pro business ... PS: asset value write downs are very subjective/gaming imho, P+L is the key thing..
Mikeclayton2
22 Feb 2018
Re: Big drop today Sibanye shares down about 16pc at a 12 month low. LMI will track the Sibanye share price making for some good trading opportunities. The LMI directors have recommended the bid even though they own no shares, will a higher bid materialise, who knows. Related commodity prices not too bad at present.
nk1999
22 Feb 2018
Big drop today Down 14% to under 68p.Does any one the reason?Thxnk
shugg1e
20 Feb 2018
Re: maybe this has turned back up now Totally dependant on SGL share price now and is moving in correlation with that.The terms of the offer are laid out so buying in now is totally pointless as the only reason its fallen is the fact the SGL share price tanked from 1600 to 1300DYOR
onedb1
19 Feb 2018
Re: maybe this has turned back up now upper trend line seems to suggest higher 90s . Lets seeOnce the gap was filled the rebound has been perfect , in line with a nice rebound in SGL , Platinum over $1000 ( that previously took LMI above 100p ) and great Palladium prices this latter commodity I have been trading since 2016 . A trend I ABSOLUTELY ADORE lol So your 90p has quite a lot of reasons to be achieved , and I would argue a bit more too.
Nice to Michu
13 Feb 2018
maybe this has turned back up now I have bought some more in late 60's and now early 70's in the hope that this will rally back towards 90 p in coming weeks.. (my overall bet still small(ish) and mostly - or even all - short term speculating only)
Nice to Michu
18 Jan 2018
Re: What happens next? The takeover has not happened yet and has to get competition authority clearace and get voted through by shareholders before it does. So it may not happen ( The Lonmin directors have FA shares in Lonmin and so their block vote of their shares is irrelevant ..they have a lot of institutions to convince..It doesn't appeal to me at that price either btw.. a revised higher offer might though eg.. 125p maybe..)Best you READ the notification RNS of PROPESED take over.. I cut and paste some here:The Lonmin Directors consider the terms of the Offer to be in the best interests of Lonmin Shareholders as a whole and intend unanimously to recommend that Lonmin Shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme at the Court Meeting and the resolutions to be proposed at the Lonmin General Meeting which is to be convened to approve the Offer, as the Lonmin Directors have irrevocably undertaken to Sibanye-Stillwater to do in respect of their own beneficial shareholdings in Lonmin which amount in aggregate to 75,498 Lonmin Shares, representing approximately 0.026698 per cent. of the existing issued ordinary share capital of Lonmin in issue on 13 December 2017 (being the last Business Day prior to the date of this Announcement).· Further details of these irrevocable undertakings are set out in Appendix III to this Announcement. Structure of the Offer· It is intended that the Offer will be effected by means of a scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the UK Companies Act between Lonmin and Lonmin Shareholders. The Offer will be put to Lonmin Shareholders at the Court Meeting and at the Lonmin General Meeting. In order to become effective, the Scheme must be approved by a majority in number of the Lonmin Shareholders voting at the Court Meeting, either in person or by proxy, representing at least 75 per cent. in value of the Lonmin Shares voted. In addition, special resolutions implementing the Scheme must be passed by Lonmin Shareholders representing at least 75 per cent. of the votes cast, either in person or by proxy, at the Lonmin General Meeting.· The Offer is also conditional upon Sibanye-Stillwater Shareholders approving the allotment and issue of the New Sibanye-Stillwater Shares at the Sibanye-Stillwater Shareholder Meeting in accordance with clause 8.2.2 of the Sibanye-Stillwater MOI, by way of an ordinary resolution. Sibanye-Stillwater will therefore seek the requisite approvals of the Sibanye-Stillwater Shareholders for the allotment and issue of the New Sibanye-Stillwater Shares for the purposes of the Offer at the Sibanye-Stillwater Shareholder Meeting which is expected to be held at or around the same time as the Lonmin General Meeting, both of which will be held as soon as reasonably practicable following the receipt of all the relevant clearances from the competition and regulatory authorities, in particular those in South Africa and the United Kingdom (or, if applicable, the European Union, in case a referral is made to the European Commission pursuant to Article 22 of Council Regulation (EC) 139/2004) (unless Sibanye-Stillwater and Lonmin otherwise agree).· The Offer is subject to the further Conditions set out in Appendix I to this Announcement, including the receipt of the relevant clearances from the competition and regulatory authorities, in particular those in South Africa and the United Kingdom (or, if applicable, the European Union, in case a referral is made to the European Commission pursuant to Article 22 of Council Regulation (EC) 139/2004), the Licences Condition, the admission of the New Sibanye-Stillwater Shares to listing and trading on the Main Board of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and to the full terms and conditions which will be set out in the Scheme Document.· It is expected that the Scheme will become effective in the second half of 2018, subject to the satisfaction or (where applicable) waiver of the Conditions and certain fur
nk1999
18 Jan 2018
Re: What happens next? Good question!I believe all shares will be converted automatically.But has anyone seen any timetable for when is the takeover due to happen?Thxnk
Jorj
17 Jan 2018
What happens next? I have a modest holding in Lonmin and I'm wondering if there is anything I should be doing with regard to the take over. Will the shares I hold be automatically converted to Sibanye after takeover or do I need to cash in my existing holding and repurchase Sibanye or just take the money?I'm worried that if I don't do anything I might find I'm left holding useless certificates.Advice please.
onedb1
16 Jan 2018
Conversion at 94.9p at the moment Stock remains at a discount to conversion , we only saw the stock narrowing the gap a bit in the past few sessions when in the 90s. SGL will do well with high platinum and palladium prices, not to mention Gold !If they manage to reduce the labour costs then this acquisition is very smart at a very cheap price . They are effectively buying discounted assets and possibly doing away with the assets review. ( which is at $1.1bn ) much higher than current market cap. Converting to Sibanye Gold ( at 0.967 rate ) might make great sense . IMO of course < I looked at it not holding any shares . Just thinking out load here . I do though hold longs in Palladium futures .
onedb1
04 Jan 2018
8p discount Surprises me . Traders should look at entering SGL (Sibanye Gold) via this offer , and the technicals on that stock look good With LMI selling Platinum , Palladium and Gold the 3 metals are surging too , so this acquisition may be very beneficial to all if costs are cut and absorbed well into the new co. I like it . ( note today Palladium over $1100 !! Surreal )
onedb1
03 Jan 2018
Conversion should be at 95p ish now Surprised not to see this gap further closed but things are improving . SGL now trading at 1652 . FX GBP/ZAR at 16.71 with a 0.967 conversion gives me about 95p Nice ! That coupled with Palladium FLYING
onedb1
03 Jan 2018
looking good at the moment the conversion to 0.967 shares in SGL ( currently flying at 1638 ZAR ) gives : GBP/ZAR fx = 16.72 Conversion = 0.967 Price of SGL = 1638 ZAR So to me that is about 94.7p about a 9p discount to the market price Go long LMI to get your shares in SGL . What strikes me as impressive too is Palladium prices $1082 now touched 1090s earlier . Platinum is recovering too IF the offer goes through remember this then becomes a play of going long SGL which looks very good to me . Happy New Year indeed Could see LMI convert at 100p at this rate
