Kier Group Live Discussion

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TheBiggerPicture 21 Jan 2020

If you havent seen them already, there are 3 videos on Kier [link] - The short squeeze [link] - Whats going on with Kier [link] - Kier and debt

Thunderjack 21 Jan 2020

Bottom line is a business with over £4bn in turnover, the largest regional construction firm in the UK. Earnings will probably be well over £100m and will likely deserve a p/e of at least 6 in the short term (about 5 times the current share price) and perhaps 10+ in the medium term. And in case you're wondering again about how that could be likely, let me remind you that Kier is winning a massive amount of work compared to its rivals. Kier signed a new construction contract on every single working day of 2019, on average, according to market data gathered by the Builders Conference. During 2019 Kier signed up as contractor on 256 different construction projects; during 253 working days in 2019. The total value of the work won by Kier in 2019 was just over £3bn or £3,012.5m to be precise, according to the Builders Conference. By contrast, Balfour Beatty won less than £2bn of new construction business in 2019; it signed 55 contracts with a total value of £1,976.4m, according to the Builders Conference categorisation system, although it won a further £500m-worth of work in a £1bn joint venture with Vinci for HS2. Morgan Sindall signed 182 contracts with a total value of £1,961.8m. Info comes from this article in the construction index: [link]

stutes 21 Jan 2020

Speculation K Living announcement Whenever the announcement what is the bottom line in terms of eps of the business that is left after the silverware is sold?

Thunderjack 20 Jan 2020

Maybe it's worth closing your short stutes.

Thunderjack 20 Jan 2020

There is news. Didn't you see the RNS from the CEO last week? An early message that there are no disasters in the interim accounts. The share price had been falling in anticipation of trouble. Also, I know you don't like to think about it, but Kier has outperformed all of its construction peers last year in the amount of work won. The good news is starting to look irresistable. People might be seeing this as a last chance to buy-in near the bottom. Three bags in three months; that's my guess.

stutes 20 Jan 2020

Up 10% on no news How can K be up 10% on no news?

Thunderjack 20 Jan 2020

It means that Kier will be able to buy more freely on the world market and get lower costs and achieve bigger margins. So a big positive for Kier. Btw, got anything to say about Kier outperforming all of the other construction firms on the volume of work won in 2019? Kier is a on a p/e of less than 2. When the results are out in a few weeks time, I reckon there will be a big re-rating of Kier's share price to something nearer 6 in the short term. So around 240p. My guess is that Kier will be a three bagger in as many months.

stutes 20 Jan 2020

Chancellor Exchequer The Chancellor of Exchequer in calling for divergence from EU regulation is, in my opinion, flagging to UK plc that the new business environment iwith EU is that of free trade on WTO terms. If this happens will construction companies secure materials from EU in a timely manner or suffer costly delays? Hopefully K has signed contracts that cover the risk of securing materials?

stutes 20 Jan 2020

Standard Life Aberdeen RNS shows SLA has reduced its holding in K slightly.

stutes 20 Jan 2020

Carillion anniversary If Carillion justifies Inquiries and nvestigations then the same should , in my opinion, be the case as for K.

Thunderjack 20 Jan 2020

In fact I notice you're not commenting on any of the positives for Kier right now. The sale of Kier Living (the residential arm of Kier) looks imminent. The KL division has had its loan capital transferred back to the Kier parent company and its ownership structure formalised in terms of defined shares which value the business at £163m. Also there is widespread press reporting on KL's recent winning of a huge residential development and the fact that work is expected to start this month. The Cardiff development is a high value area; 270 houses approved for building. A great start to the year for 2020 for KL and a guarantee for any KL buyer that the business hits the ground running this year for new production.

Thunderjack 20 Jan 2020

I notice you're not commenting on the more important story here though: It turns out that Kier is winning a massive amount of work compared to its rivals. Kier signed a new construction contract on every single working day of 2019, on average, according to market data gathered by the Builders Conference. During 2019 Kier signed up as contractor on 256 different construction projects; during 253 working days in 2019. The total value of the work won by Kier in 2019 was just over £3bn or £3,012.5m to be precise, according to the Builders Conference. By contrast, Balfour Beatty won less than £2bn of new construction business in 2019; it signed 55 contracts with a total value of £1,976.4m, according to the Builders Conference categorisation system, although it won a further £500m-worth of work in a £1bn joint venture with Vinci for HS2. Morgan Sindall signed 182 contracts with a total value of £1,961.8m. Info comes from this article in the construction index: [link]

Thunderjack 20 Jan 2020

IC won't be recommending a buy until Kier has already doubled in price. The IC writer is out of touch with the current situation. Current Kier board are new. The old management; yes, good idea. Ban them from future directorships.

stutes 17 Jan 2020

Carillion anniversary The fallout of Carillion is still to be felt by the management, etc; should some of Kier’s management face an Inquiry into how the business arrived at it’s current position ?

stutes 17 Jan 2020

IC magazine Report briefly on K’s trading update, has a sell recommendation on the shares.

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