Thunderjack

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Registered
03 Aug 2019
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15:59 21/01/2020

Bottom line is a business with over £4bn in turnover, the largest regional construction firm in the UK. Earnings will probably be well over £100m and will likely deserve a p/e of at least 6 in the short term (about 5 times the current share price) and perhaps 10+ in the medium term. And in case you're wondering again about how that could be likely, let me remind you that Kier is winning a massive amount of work compared to its rivals. Kier signed a new construction contract on every single working day of 2019, on average, according to market data gathered by the Builders Conference. During 2019 Kier signed up as contractor on 256 different construction projects; during 253 working days in 2019. The total value of the work won by Kier in 2019 was just over £3bn or £3,012.5m to be precise, according to the Builders Conference. By contrast, Balfour Beatty won less than £2bn of new construction business in 2019; it signed 55 contracts with a total value of £1,976.4m, according to the Builders Conference categorisation system, although it won a further £500m-worth of work in a £1bn joint venture with Vinci for HS2. Morgan Sindall signed 182 contracts with a total value of £1,961.8m. Info comes from this article in the construction index: [link]

16:12 20/01/2020

Maybe it's worth closing your short stutes.

16:11 20/01/2020

There is news. Didn't you see the RNS from the CEO last week? An early message that there are no disasters in the interim accounts. The share price had been falling in anticipation of trouble. Also, I know you don't like to think about it, but Kier has outperformed all of its construction peers last year in the amount of work won. The good news is starting to look irresistable. People might be seeing this as a last chance to buy-in near the bottom. Three bags in three months; that's my guess.

13:02 20/01/2020

It means that Kier will be able to buy more freely on the world market and get lower costs and achieve bigger margins. So a big positive for Kier. Btw, got anything to say about Kier outperforming all of the other construction firms on the volume of work won in 2019? Kier is a on a p/e of less than 2. When the results are out in a few weeks time, I reckon there will be a big re-rating of Kier's share price to something nearer 6 in the short term. So around 240p. My guess is that Kier will be a three bagger in as many months.

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These ratings are submitted by Thunderjack and should be used for information only. They do not constitute any instruction to trade and do not reflect the opinion of this site.

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SELL DC by Thunderjack on 08 Oct 2019 11:08

Price at rating: , now: …

Imminent recession in the UK; sterling near historic lows - all imported product more expensive, squeezing profits for DC; ex-chairman and founder has sold a quarter of his holding recently; big pension deficit; as far as I can see, practically no cash - the business seems to be operating on cashflow which relies on suppliers waiting a long time to be paid; increasing online competition; a massive and costly bricks&mortar estate; a huge workforce creating high operational costs; very few customers in the shops whenever I've visited; warning from the management of 'more pain' to come due to the change in smartphone purchasing dynamics. From what I can see, there are almost no positives for DC; an outdated business model with huge legacy costs.

11:08:30 8 Oct 2019

BUY KIE by Thunderjack on 20 Aug 2019 17:24

Price at rating: , now: …

Recovering share price, reducing debt, good cash raising (rights issue and cancelled divi), top contracts winner by value for 2019 so far, results out in 4 weeks.

17:24:40 20 Aug 2019

BUY KIE by Thunderjack on 03 Aug 2019 18:58

Price at rating: , now: …

New CEO with rationalisation plan; debt is reducing; sale of part of the business (Kier Living) announced; share price has bottomed out due to hedge-fund shorting overshooting the price target -- currently valued at approx one year's earnings and should be 5 or 6 times this value.

18:58:33 3 Aug 2019

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