Brexit Wars 3 Trisco: I think what we should be looking to do, and maybe it isn’t leaving at all, but refining our relationship. And maybe saying “we don’t want to be part of that bullshit that it’s become, but happy to be part of something that was more like before. Like when we joined in 1973, the common market” OK. So why would you vote to Leave then? If you wanted to change it then you’d do that from within and gaining the support of other key countries like Germany and France… not by leaving it which achieves nothing of what you want. Note that the EEC’s initial aim was to bring about economic integration, including a common market and customs union… that was never in any doubt even in 1973. Fact is that Britain joined the EU as a way to avoid its economic decline. The UK’s per capita GDP relative to the EU founding members’ declined steadily from 1945 to 1972… was then relatively stable between 1973 and 2010… Britain thus received substantial benefits from EU membership. " The special relationship with the US, the Commonwealth, and the belief that purely economic integration (FTA) would be superior to deeper, politico-economic alternatives are often among the reasons for the delay in British membership. Special relation or not, the US was a resolute supporter of European integration from the outset. With the independence of India, the Suez crisis, and African decolonisation, Commonwealth links tapered (Darwin 2009, Garavini 2012). Applying for EC membership one year after the creation of EFTA reveals which alternative was perceived as superior. Today, advocates of Britain leaving the EU parade two economic alternatives, one based on the Commonwealth and another on bilateral free trade treaties. As shown above, these did not work as well, so it is unclear why they would now be superior to EU membership (Campos et al. 2014). " source: voxeu.org Britain’s EU membership: New insight from economic history | VOX, CEPR Policy... Britain eschewed EU membership in the late 1950s but changed its mind in the early 1960s, only to be rebuffed by Charles de Gaulle. Membership came only in the early 1970s. This column argues that,
Brexit Wars 3 JAR , Equally you cannot prove that the will of the people remains as it was in June 2016. Opinion polls are the best indication we have and there is a great deal of consistency over many months that public opinion has changed in favour of Remain. Cheers, Frog
Brexit Wars 3 OK. So Doug, take note that you need to say: “Keep up fella - opinion polls indicate the will of the people has changed.” … not … “Keep up fella - the will of the people has changed.”
Brexit Wars 3 JW - hi J_Westlock: So opinion polls aren’t a way of gauging how people currently intend to vote? Doug was spot on in the words he used. Of course polls are a ‘gauge’ of 'intention’. Just like the polls were in advance of the Referendum (I wonder how accurate they were?). They are not proof that the will of the people ‘has changed’, (as UD erroneously stated. JAR
Brexit Wars 3 john.a.reeves: Uncle Doug stated categorically ‘the will of the people has changed ’ and I asked for proof Opinion polls, speculation and wishful thinking aren’t proof - unless, of course, you’re an EU Groupie. So opinion polls aren’t a way of gauging how people currently intend to vote? Doug was spot on in the words he used. Clearly, there can be no “proof” without carrying it out.
Brexit Wars 3 JW - hi J_Westlock: Proof will come next year John Speculation and wishful thinking Uncle Doug stated categorically ‘the will of the people has changed’ and I asked for proof Opinion polls, speculation and wishful thinking aren’t proof - unless, of course, you’re an EU Groupie. JAR
Brexit Wars 3 Trisco: How will I sleep… Stick your head back in the sand.
Brexit Wars 3 john.a.reeves: Sorry, but I asked for proof - not the ‘result’ of some opinion poll! Proof will come next year John… seeing as that’s the only way to “prove” it. Bring on #BrexitRef2.
Brexit Wars 3 Trisco: Christ above - you really would have a row in an empty room. @HuwJarse mentions going to some festival and having some fun, while you turn it into some row about Brexit!!! If you have a look back @Trisco… I was just sending Huw a link about the Festival which he may or may not have already seen. It was you who seemed to object to that saying: “Why should he?” … so I decided to give you some related info that you expected I’d sent. I posted detailed and recent links (not old/out of date) of experts concerned of the impact of Brexit to science funding; these are real, not fake. Eg. “The president of the Royal Society has warned the Tory leadership candidates that UK research could be damaged by a bad deal or no-deal Brexit.” Eg. “The UK puts about three-quarters of its civil space budget through the European Space Agency (Esa) and has become a significant player in the EU’s growing space activities - not just in Galileo but in Brussels’ other big project: the Copernicus/Sentinel Earth observation system. Esa is a separate legal entity to the EU and ministers say Britain will stay in it even as the country leaves the wider union. But Esa and the EU are becoming ever more aligned, with Brussels now the single biggest contributor to the agency’s budget - €1.25bn out of a total of €5.72bn per annum. The EU uses Esa as its technical and procurement agent. Many commentators believe the growing influence of Brussels within Esa is leading to tension, and that this unease will only heighten when a big agency member-state like Britain exits the EU. Dr Marshall shares this concern and warns the UK’s voice within Esa will become diminished as a result. “ Eg. “Ministers have decided to walk away from the project because Brussels says a future Britain, as a “third country” outside the EU, cannot be involved in the system’s most secure elements - this despite the UK having already invested £1.5bn in Galileo.” You can ignore these people if you wish, but facts are facts and the concerns are real.
Brexit Wars 3 FIAT - hi frog_in_a_tree: It looks like the will of the people is for Remain with an 8% majority on 17 July. Sorry, but I asked for proof - not the ‘result’ of some opinion poll! However, I guess under your ‘Remainer’s democracy’ our government shouldn’t have acted on the referendum vote and that a current opinion poll takes precedence! JAR
Brexit Wars 3 Trisco, I agree with much of that, especially David Cameron who should be in a poor house now for what he has caused,and the money that has been wasted, dressed as the court jester, and put on show for all to see. But I think we are nearer to leaving on the relevant date than ever. For us to stay in past this date , we have to ask to extend the date of leaving, and all the other members to agree for us to do so. If Johnson wins the Tory leadership, his tactic will be to surround himself with a leave cabinet, not ask for an extension, and see who blinks first.
Brexit Wars 3 Eadwig: You obviously have never invested in ISAT. No chance now, its been bought out and moved to the other side of the Atlantic at weak GBP Brexit Bargain Basement prices. That was our leader in the field, in case you were wondering. Already gone. How will I sleep…
Brexit Wars 3 Christ above - you really would have a row in an empty room. @HuwJarse mentions going to some festival and having some fun, while you turn it into some row about Brexit!!! Literally only you could turn something like that into a row about Brexit. That is some effort. Why do you keep going on about Space, I’ve quite clearly shown being part of the EU will have no bearing. The UKSA don’t think so, nor do One Web. And that is good enough for me. What did I vote for? There are people who just don’t want The European Union to be part of what we are I suppose. Who don’t want the EU as an entity somehow running Britain. And the idea we leave (deal or no deal) and then turn our backs like the guy in Goodfellas “I’m now going to turn my back!” is plain daft. Are we never going to see Europe again? Are we never going to deal or talk with Europe again? Don’t be preposterous. And if we can’t leave with a compromise, or something we can stand by or a general consensus, should we leave with a no deal? I think so. No matter how much of a deal we reach, we’ll always be dealing and negotiating with Europe. No matter what the deal is, going forward we won’t be stuck or hindered by the more lethargic economies elsewhere within the EU. We’ll always have a partnership of sorts with Europe. We can’t pretend that on the 31st October some insurmountable wall will be built in the English Channel and that’s it “bye bye Europe”. I’m not anti EU, I’m not a Brexit voter that wants to see the EU or Euro collapse. You moan that we can’t give any benefits to leaving, yet I never hear where Remainers expect the EU to be in 10/15 years. How exactly do you think Remain/EU will turn out in the coming years, what will it turn into? No doubt they want to become Federal, no doubt they will want to take more money from those that can pay or have deep pockets, and those questions never get answered. How do you know what form the EU will take over the next few years? All the main parties in France, Germany, Italy and Spain have all suffered. Macron is under the cosh, Merkel is under the cosh; Crikey Berlusconi might be making a comeback. Great if you like Bunga Bunga parties. Maybe Boris will like that. Or Ann Widdicombe. I think what we should be looking to do, and maybe it isn’t leaving at all, but refining our relationship. And maybe saying “we don’t want to be part of that bullshit that it’s become, but happy to be part of something that was more like before. Like when we joined in 1973, the common market” The European Union project has gone too far in my view. It’s like a cabal at the top. When you see them they’re very arrogant and think they run the place forever. But they don’t. We’re going to get a new EU commissioner, brand new parliament and people to represent it that we have very little say in. We had the “election” which I refer loosely as an election, where Ursula von der Leyen was appointed. It was a stitch up. It was a one horse race and she won by only NINE votes, which was remarkably poor and shows how unpopular her candidacy actually was. Her policies for the future the EU are really quite terrifying: losing the veto and going to qualified majority voting on foreign policy is a scary prospect. She wants a minimum wage across the whole of the EU, fiscal powers across the whole of the EU and it’s a real change for a unified federal state and I don’t think I’m behind that. If that is what the member states want, then good for them. If that is what you want, then good for you. The EU is a moveable feast and my worry is if stay in it, it will expand further. Don’t forget the Ukraine problem was caused by Merkel and The EU. The Balkans war could’ve been stopped by the EU but wasn’t. It’s not this great saviour. The Bosnia situation is a great stain on the EU’s reputation, but that conveniently gets swept under the carpet. So many people have put their faith in politicians as if they can save the world. They can’t. I don’t want Boris Johnson to make my world, I certainly don’t want Farage to make my world and nor do I want Corbyn to either. I also think it’s a myth to say that everyone that voted Brexit are thick racists. That’s utter nonsense. Britain won’t be little England. Nothing of the sort. For EU citizens, Poles, Eastern European’s or whoever to think they won’t be welcome is a myth as well and unfortunate. And a lot of that was peddled more often than not by Remainers who say “if you vote Brexit you hate them” and then they believe it. The Remainers are as guilty as anyone for stoking that situation. I love Europe. And no matter what I’ll still travel to France, Germany, Spain, the Nordics. My world will not come to an end. Nor will any of yours. All that said what they should have done is use the referendum as an indicative vote. Instead of using indicative vote to interpret the referendum. And then move onto the next stage which is: how do we work it out from here. Instead of two years pretending it isn’t going to happen. And then Teresa May going “sign this we’re off”. For the record, I don’t think Brexit will go ahead. Most likely there will be a Ref2, but I’m not certain the result will be any different. Bloody David Cameron.
Brexit Wars 3 Here you are JAR…current opinion on Brexit: [link] It looks like the will of the people is for Remain with an 8% majority on 17 July. I guess almost all those surveyed are still aive today. Happy to assist, Frog in a tree
Brexit Wars 3 Trisco: No sod gave a stuff for the space program when they voted, leave or remain. Anyone who says they did is an absolute BS’er. You obviously have never invested in ISAT. No chance now, its been bought out and moved to the other side of the Atlantic and weak GBP Brexit Bargain Basement prices. That was our leader in the field, in case you were wondering. Already gone.