Tinman78
14 Jun 2018
Discussion Board Hello All… With this message board being a complete mess since the update, if any of the regulars find and move to a better board do let me know as I’d like to come join you!
MadCats
14 Jun 2018
Re: Sweepstake to help pass the time Bought & sold Griffin a few times & now hold again. Although not a poster, it was nice to recognise many of the names & enjoyed their posts. Now sad all that is lost. Trying to make up my mind which site to transfer to. Best wishes to all Griffin.
millwallfan
07 Jun 2018
Re: Stockpaedia SLAATT don’t say bscribe to full service so cannot comment. I do agree it MST at least be supporting the current sp which has held up very well since early April.
Still learningafterallthistime
07 Jun 2018
Re: Stockpaedia Do you think it is any good? I'm thinking of subscribing to it. Is there a better alternative that anyone uses?As you say it is the only 100 pointer, but has been for a while and that hasn't nudged the price since we arrived at these heady levels. Might be supporting the price though...SL
millwallfan
07 Jun 2018
Stockpaedia Not sure how many PIs or IIs use this but GFM is still the only company with the top 100 rating so let’s hope this when combined with anticipated results continues to support or drive the sp
millwallfan
06 Jun 2018
Re: 2 months and counting...CD and Sage &GS When I did a small amount of research recently it appeared to me that a profitable mining company should expect a P/E ratio of between 10 and 12 which is what I based my ‘guesstimate ‘ that a good set of results could possibly take us to the magic £2 party sometime within the next 10 months - even without the new ‘L’ being issued within that timeline. On a personal front £2 gives me a major dilemma as at 62 my strategy was to convert all of my shareholding’s back to cash from now and over the next couple of years when each share reaches my own target price - for Griffin that was at £1.80 - but a big dividend and the licence might convince me to hold fire !!
Guitarsolo
06 Jun 2018
Re: 2 months and counting...CD and Sage I might well be MWF.......I underestimated FY17 (an estimate of 22c v actual earnings of 24.6c). Perhaps that is just a reflection of my mind!But, if I am being very conservative and indeed H1 earnings come in at say over 20c (=14p) then that puts full year earnings nearer 30p and the shares currently trading at under x6. That would indicate a MASSIVE share price undervaluation and the share price should double from here....that would be nice!I do think a dividend will be declared at the interims. It probably won't be huge, a few pence perhaps. In the last trading update the board stated they were stockpiling cash to pay for the stuff they will need in the event of the license being granted (= GOOD), but they were also looking at other mining opportunities (=BAD!!!). In my humble opinion GFM should look to milk cash out of the current mine and dispersing that to shareholders. If I wanted to invest in another mining opportunity that should be my choice, not something made for me by the BoD! They are doing at excellent job where they are....concentrate on that please!Guitarsolo
Sageman
06 Jun 2018
Re: 2 months and counting...CD and Sage Hi G5 reading your post it is clear that you did not know that the terms of GFM's loans prevented them from paying a dividend until the loans were cleared. Those debts are repaid and it remains the stated objective of the BOD to reward shareholders with dividends when they can. It is very clear that they would now have the cash to do so. In terms of share buy backs one of the biggest destroyers of wealth on AIM is dilution. GFM have avoided this such that even when they did a large capital raise they subsequently bought back the shares and cancelled them (at a fraction of the price - so good business). The result is that there are relatively few tradeable shares. The current buy backs in a thin market have enabled GFM to support the SP whilst there is no news because sellers shares are not left with market makers. The BOD are more astute than they are given credit for and unlike many BOD's on AIM our directors hold bucket loads of shares and thus their objectives are aligned with ours.
millwallfan
06 Jun 2018
Re: 2 months and counting...CD and Sage GS. I think you are being quite conservative but all will be revealed early August
Guitarsolo
06 Jun 2018
Re: 2 months and counting...CD and Sage Well GFM made 15.78 cents in H2 last year (24.63c final EPS - H1 8.85c). That included say 4 months of interest payments up to November.The monthly average zinc price in H2 was ~$3100. For Jan-May it is a smidge over $3300. Note, this is a pure arithmetic average and doesn't take into account when product was sold. We don't know anything about volumes, and the rate of debt repayment suggested they might have ramped up in H2 2017. Have they kept that up?But all in all, I would hope to see H1 earnings beat H2 2017 based on slightly better zinc prices and no interest on the debt to pay. (I recall calculating that might have been worth 1.5-2c per share). I top-sliced about 12% of my holding at 156p a few weeks back to put the money into something to pay my dear old mother an income in retirement! Was it a good decision? It won't be if GFM performs like I hope but it was a tranche bought at 63p so I can live with myself. I do have some concerns about stock levels. We have seen too many dumps into warehouse for my liking! As stock goes up the price comes down ([link] So I just wanted to make sure that I banked a profit I guess. Guitarsolo - predicting H1 earnings of er....18cps
Gailes5
05 Jun 2018
Re: 2 months and counting...CD and Sage MLF You can’t be serious in hoping for a dividend? That would mean giving money to us, the shareholders, and will totally jeopardize their buy back strategy, I use that word in a rather loose sense as the only strategy they have in that direction is not to have one. On a rather more serious note, it appears to me that there is a firm buyer about. On the days of some volume, last Friday, all the sales were mopped up and on the very quiet days, today, the price does not drift as you might expect. Of course if there is such a buyer building a stake we will hear nothing about it, we all continue on our way searching in the dark for clues to manage our money. Happy with the sp but not with the appalling pr.
millwallfan
05 Jun 2018
Re: 2 months and counting...CD and Sage I am south east Essex and I think Sage is somewhere mid Essex so I am sure we can find a watering hole for lunch somewhere central for the £2 party. EPS at circa 18p year end so a marginal improvement should see 20p for interims. Surely the BOD can distribute 25% of this as the 2018 dividend = 5p - 2 p interim and 3p final. PLUS a re-rate of the p/e to 10 at interims makes our lunch a real possibility. All IMHO. .
Chinese Dragon
05 Jun 2018
Re: 2 months and counting...CD and Sage Hi Sage & MWF,I played a lot of golf several years ago down to 7 , but I prefer the 19th hole these days would be good to meet up one day in UK Iam in Sufflok , however at present in the villa in Spain 10 mins from Marbella ,looking forward to the next RNS from GFM Happy Day
millwallfan
03 Jun 2018
Re: 2 months and counting...CD and Sage Sage. I’ve been playing 25 years and am still shockingly bad lol so perhaps we just have the £2 party in the bar and forget the golf. Believe CD still visits Essex so let’s wait to hear from him. Perhaps he will pick us all up in his Bentley !!!
Sageman
03 Jun 2018
Re: 2 months and counting...CD and Sage Hi MWF there are a number of us who have been here a while and yes it would be good to have a £2 party. If it was golf though I would have to wait for you all at the 19th hole because I gave up over 25 years ago because quite frankly I was shockingly bad! CD would be nearly £1.2m in profit and too busy sunning himself on his yacht to make an appearance. Good to see the zinc price stabilise, roll on August. I have posted a weak buy because per my previous posts I think that under £1.60 the SP has not priced in any upside for the dividend or the license.
