II Editor
05 Sep 2016
NEW ARTICLE: Bank downgrades after post-Brexit highs "The trauma felt across the banking sector in the wake of Britain's Brexit vote left high-street lenders reeling in pain, with some big names crashing 30-40%. Fast-forward two months and better-than-expected economic data had pushed the banks to ..."[link]
botmzup
27 Aug 2016
Re: Breaking out ! Hi Callun,Yes I missed getting in closer to the recent second visit down to 130p ish. I don`t know if you follow the technicals but it coincided perfectly with daily stochastics crossing signal below 20, and a relative rise in volume to 2.8m on 22/8/16. Unfortunately for me I didn`t actually stumble across this share until the 24th when I ran a data mining filter in my software, so I missed the first part of the move...but...I decided to buy anyway because the momentum looked clear, confirmed when price broke above the 144p - 145p level accompanied by the first huge volume day (7.4m).I wouldn`t usually buy when a move had already soaked up a good %, besides it means you have to agonise over your stop loss level rather than see a clear tight stop.As a trader I tend to sell too early but as has already been mentioned on here I think there is still room for a strong move, fuelled by the large recent volume levels and the target of closing the brexit gap above the 200p level.It needs to break above 174p ish convincingly first because it looks to have reacted at the top of a rising channel, or tramline on Friday, though could have triggered a bit of nervous selling due to the then due Janet Yellen speech at Jackson Hole, along with the bank holiday weekend.The speech was all very `wait and see` as usual but now that its out of the way for another few weeks it could see the buying resume here.I like the sound of a `challenger bank` in todays climate so will be trying to hold on to these as long as the momentum remains.Good results recently and Merrill Lynch seem to like them too with their article about the Government possibly considering changing policy on stamp duty....."We think some changes to stamp duty could be one logical shift in policy, which would help the property market and increase mortgage lending. The challengers would benefit most, we think."[link] of upside here in my view so keeping a relatively wide stop now that I`m on the right side of the trade.botmzup
onedb1
26 Aug 2016
Re: Breaking out ! Hi C Buying on a low is very rare for anyone so you can't beat yourself up , I would add that if you look at the volume on that low ( i have Market Profile software ) it was very small , so hardly anyone traded the lows . Whereas I specialise in buying breaks and trailing shares when trending ( IF they decide to trend) So you will see as the breakout came , lots of volume starting to come it. To me that is the sensible time to get in. We also have a fairly big gap to close and that should serve as a good indicator in my view But best of luck
oggs
26 Aug 2016
Re: Breaking out ! The post Brexit performance has much in common with the housebuilders.
Callun
26 Aug 2016
Re: Breaking out ! Most of the banks that fell heavily on the brexit result have clawed their way back to the bottom of the gap created in that fall. ALD has achieved it in a final rush and shows good momentum. However, BARC & LLOY, for instance, have failed to progress through that lower price barrier, and paused for breath, as it were. At this point ALD is entering overbought territory because of the recent upward surge, so I would not be surprised to see a similar pause, although the challenger banks are not behaving the same way as the main ones.As a long term holder I regret not pressing the buy button at 134 only a few days ago. Definitely not buying more at this point, but will add if there is a worthwhile fall back.Callun
onedb1
26 Aug 2016
Breaking out ! Not just a good breakout to target gap closure but also a good moving average cross over 20/50. This could deliver a really good trade as gap close is nicely above 200p .
oggs
24 Aug 2016
Re: article on Friday worth a look Today's rise is barely half that of Shawbrook (in %age terms).
Ripley94
24 Aug 2016
Re: article on Friday worth a look Friday 19th.let them go today @ 147. 3 working days on .
Ripley94
20 Aug 2016
Re: article on Friday worth a look Got in at 130.Think it was also tipped on SP site.
oggs
15 Aug 2016
Oh Well I was hoping for a nice bounce in this today after the Sunday Times article saying that capital requirements on challenger banks were likely to be lowered.
Nige the snake
14 Aug 2016
article on Friday worth a look Register for Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc share research updatesMuch the same occurred with StanChart which followed close on its heels with a $2bn issue which was oversubscribed.Some analysts believe those instances are a reason to be wary.Not at all, the tipster said.Indeed, those analysts are missing the point. Investors are starved for yield and the recent regulatory stress-tests revealed that lenders' capital cushions were comfortably above the levels needed even in the event of a crisis, Lex said.Investors in challenger banks are anxious in the face of the soft economy, yet while those worries are legitimate at least in the case of Aldermore they are probably overdone, The Times's Tempus said.Sharply lower Gilt yields, a slowdown in housing and the Brexit vote have all taken their toll.Indeed, the bank's core capital ratio was eroded from 11.8% to 11.0% over the first half of 2016.What's more, nasty surprises might yet manifest themselves over the coming 18 months, knocking the lender off course and perhaps even triggering a capital raise.Nonetheless, fretting about lower interest rates is overdone, as Aldermore has more of a cushion than mainstream banks.Its net interest margin was unchanged over the first six months of the year at 3.6%.At six times forecasts for full-year profits and one times tangible book value the stock is cheap, even if that does not mean that it can't get cheaper.
Nige the snake
12 Aug 2016
Re: RNS Sorry my mistake I assumed they must have a Div but not so but even a better reason to buy as more profits will be ploughed back into the Coffers..
Comeuppance
12 Aug 2016
Re: RNS Nige, Have looked at the never ending results, which are impressive, but cannot see the divi. can you help?
Nige the snake
12 Aug 2016
Re: RNS another 3-6 months we will be looking at all time highs just look at the numbers in their results. Good Div also
desertjoe
11 Aug 2016
Re: RNS That's if it goes up, Nige. My concern is that it's gone down suddenly and rather unexplained as far as one can see.
