I just do very rough but conservative calcs... I see people on LSE with elaborate and detailed valuations, I let them do the hard work, then I just go off and do a quick check of the sums for myself.
I take DORs 20% of the 312bopd. Production cost $10, Oil $100/barrel, well working 350 days... easily clears £1,000,000+ profits. PE for oil producer I'd go 8. So very rough quick valuation of £8m+ just on Lidsey. So this share is really trading at discount IMO.
yup... I take the current 312 very profitable, low cost, BOpD from Lidsey, take DOR's 20% share of that and apply a sensible PE. I use that as a rough valuation and it covers the current SP.... that means I'm getting whatever comes from Brock, HH and the legacy TEP business bundled in for free at the moment. Unless the future news on flow rates is bad then future news isn't priced in.
Sticking to rules is the key.... its too easy for the heart to take over the head. I set rules, then slowly start bending them. I decided DOR was a big enough % of the portfolio after the last walk down, now with these lows again its been too tempting to buy so I'm now somewhat overweight on DOR. Hopefully its a chance that pays off.
I don't think this will get to 0.12's, If we start approaching 0.13's then think bargain hunters will flood in and take over, flurries of buying already happening at the 0.14/15 boundary. Assuming current status-quo on news and the macro economic outlook of course.
Bob - there's always tomorrow, if we get walked down again to the 0.13's you could be in luck. However 0.14's , 0.15's are all great prices to be buyng at IMHO
breaching down in to the 0.14s seems to have stimulated a bit of volume
topping up all the way down at these levels.
I didn't think we would see these levels again and burned the little cash I had available last week on 0.17's, even better bargains to be had today so loaded some more cash in the portfolio so i can take advantage.
How far are we going to get walked down... another visit to the .13 - .14 range? I took top ups last week at 0.17 and again today at 0.16. Keeping hold of some cash in case we get some lower lows.