cosmos's Posts

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17:46 01/12/2017

Wow. How to grab defeat from the jaws of victory. Of course I'm being unfair. Kudos to the owner for steering the company through a very difficult time and to a successful deal. However, as suspected the intention is not to return cash to shareholders but continue as an investment company. The LSR experience does not inspire faith that he has the midas touch. Market clearly concurs with the share marginally down on what should be a joyous day. Theoretical SOTP NAV according to today's RNS is 144p. I am not saying that the owner doesn't have some cunning re-investment plan up his sleeve. But I will happily watch this from the sidelines. I'm now happily out (below where it could be if mgmt were more shareholder friendly but that's life). I wish all remaining shareholders the best of luck!

17:50 29/11/2017

As an aside there was a very interesting article in the recent FT weekend about the rise of algorithmic trading and the impact of ETFs. Both strategies are constantly tweaking portfolio allocations. Market movements are exacerbated both up and down as a result, as any larger short term movement becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Personally I think this no bad thing for the LT private investor as it allows us to buy good assets cheap, whilst the ever growing proportion of "dumb money" just churns. In the LT intrinsic value creation will win out and be rewarded. In this respect nothing has changed from Buffet's early days...

17:35 29/11/2017

Couldn't agree more. You have a company with an annualised FCF yield north of 10% and double digits ROCE. One parallel I can draw is with Smurfit Kappa. After their blow up it look them several years to regain trust (whilst paying down debt, which was far higher than RPC's current multiple at peak). Despite a very strong share price rise SKG arguably remains undervalued. Brokers certainly seem to think so. And the same goes for RPC. For once I think the brokers have this dead right and the market dead wrong with target prices far north of current. Bottom line is that our company is a (lower risk) cash machine, which in today's low yield world is not something to be sniffed at. I am generally a LT investor and have used today's fall to top up. I sincerely believe the market will get there. Fill your boots whilst you can

10:26 29/11/2017

Management / owners have an excellent track record of delivering on M&A. They would not investing multi-millions of incremental family wealth if they did not feel very sure they could deliver. Negative share price reaction has been accentuated by the fact the share price was (wrongly) frothy with dreams of potential bid spec. I grant that this is not as satisfying as a quick exit. But long term I think this is a smart move in terms of economies of scale / diversification: negotiating power with the studios (you may have heard that Disney are squeezing operators on the margins they will earn from the new Star Wars), procurement, etc. Yes, US has been more impacted by Netflix, but frankly that risk is endemic to the industry. You either believe operators can overcome or not. Personally I see this as one of my core LT holdings. ROCE has consistently been in double digits. Not a Fevertree or an IQE but a lovely LT holding. Personally I am giving mgmt the benefits of the doubt and have topped on the dip. If the bid is abandoned the share price will rally. And if not it actually will make for a stronger business in the LT. all IMHO

23:07 27/11/2017

I suspect (hope) what will happen is that a placing will get done but just at 35p instead of 50p. This obviously means more dilution for existing shareholders. But at this point the aim must surely be just to get the raising done irrespective of the dilution. X% or Y% of nothing is still nothing. A raising seems to be the only way to steady the ship in the ST and give the company (and all stakeholders) a fighting chance. Sadly I think the idea that the brothers or the LLP take a hit is fantasy. I have to say what I find most troubling about this saga is the brothers' refusal to put money to work in the latest RNS. I strongly feel that this more than anything spooked the market and undermined the 50p placing in the first place. Which in turn undermined the value of the brothers' residual stake. The message seems to be loud and clear - we are not throwing money into a lost cause. I am no Corbyn supporter but frankly this total disregard for stakeholders (and I'm thinking above of all about employees) is shocking. In summary whilst I echo the sentiment of deep disgust with owners / management, let's hope that they can get this placing away...

11:57 08/11/2017

There is a Buy tip in today's Questor column in The Telegraph. Questor seems to have a decent following among private small cap investors, perhaps not surprising given the paper's socio-economic demographic. I don't own Gama but do own Murgitroyd in which we experienced a similar pop after Questor tipped

09:02 12/10/2017

Bottom line. The share buy back programme in that it takes out stock well below intrinsic value offers a great value creation opportunity for long term holders. I have used the drop to add to my position

09:00 12/10/2017

Sorry. There seem to be some technical gremlins...

08:59 12/10/2017

Part2: and

08:57 12/10/2017

Bowman. I couldn't agree more that the drop is overdone and has opened up a significant delta between price and intrinsic value. In today's "rich" market there are few companies that offer such a compelling mix of valuation metrics. Based on 2016 historic financials CCT is trading at c. 4x EBITDA,

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