Dp Poland - Re: DPP Stream Log - Re: How do you analyse...

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16:57 11/01/2018

Re: How do you analyse this stock? One back of the envelope method is to look at annual store EBITDA at maturity. In 2016 the most mature store had an annual EBITDA of PLN 536K i.e. roughly GBP100K. Assuming no further growth in store numbers and the whole estate hitting this target (nb: Peel Hunt, for example, are estimating PLN 500K as a sensible figure across the estate). You get to £5m. Apply a 10x EBITDA multiple and you have £50m i.e. a little south of the current valuation. But now imagine that DPP gets to their target number of 150 stores and apply not a 10x multiple but 15x, which is where DOM UK is still trading in its mature stage, de-rated state. So £15m & 15 equals £225m i.e. 3x upside from here

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