Greyinvestor
22 Aug 2018
First purchase p.s.topped up on NRR, PIN and MVI…
Greyinvestor
22 Aug 2018
First purchase I’m not remotely bothered about the day to day price, I buy for the long term, but for the record lots of sales have gone through the market today at 75p, with the odd buy at 77p. I agree with your post Buzz, but will await some actual results before doing a serious dig. In the meantime all the numbers and indicators look sound (I use Stockopedia), except momentum. When I say sound, I mean unlikely to go bust and having a fair chance of hitting the heavily reduced target, down from around 14p of EPS to around 10.6p. My calculations were based upon a 9p EPS. I will look most closely at operating cash flow when the numbers come out. I suspect that it might be pretty weak. My biggest concern with the operating environment would be Laura Ashley, who I would rate as being in some difficulty (see today). It shows how hard interior decorating is just now. You did very well to get out at £2. I prefer to be an indefinite holder, but life doesn’t usually go that way. All the best.
The_buzz
22 Aug 2018
First purchase Any analyst worth his salt should be very familiar with the company his institution has invested in. He does not need to have inside information. There are lots of stocks trading in similar markets such as CFX, so tracking what everyone else is doing (eg Burbury) will give a feel for how the retail scene is going). Talking to the FD of a similar firm about WGB proved to be very illuminating - those in the business pick up all sorts of background information! If you go back to some of my earlier posts you might appreciate that at one time I got very close to WGB, but subsequently sold out at over £2 a share taking a large profit. Going bust is not really likely given the relatively low debt, profit (including the reliable royalty stream) and assets. Plus the dividend yield at the current share price is now about 4.7% Yes 73p bid, but still 79p to buy. Lots of open market sales so the fall in price is not too surprising, but the number of shares sales is relatively small compared to the number of shares in issue. The question is whether the depressed share price has already got sufficient risks discounted, or are there further risks that need to be considered? I suspect that the existing share price already over compensates for risk - but this has to be a qualitative assessment and everyone has their own risk taking profile. The Buzz
Hugh_Betcha
22 Aug 2018
First purchase Quite funny - an institution supposedly acquiring 0.75% is big news, very positive, must be close to information we don’t have (that would be illegal, by the way), onwards and upwards. Oh they sold! No story there, nothing to see, move along folks!!! I wouldn’t get too excited by an institution having a sizeable holding in a small company or impute some special knowledge to it. When small companies (and even big companies) go bust, you’ll usually find a number of institutions with large holdings. I’d take no comfort from that. p.s. now 73p bid.
Greyinvestor
22 Aug 2018
First purchase Not to worry, I’ve done it before. I’ll probably be proved wrong, but I think that WGB is a long term hold. It will probably produce weak results this year, not surprising given the effects of Brexit. But there must be long term value in what they do. …
The_buzz
21 Aug 2018
First purchase Yes I believe that you are right! I often struggle with these RNSs as they always seem to have a different layout! OK it means that Investec have reduced their holding. One can only guess why - but the market has absorbed the sales on a relatively small part of their holding and the price of WGB seems to have stayed steady. I think that is all that I can constructively add, other than now they are just below 11% they can sell another 1% before they have to declare any further sales. So I suppose that this is a slight negative. However, my perception is that WGB is now priced so low that there should be lots of other buyers out there, plus Investec will be getting a relatively low price on sales at this level. The Buzz
Greyinvestor
21 Aug 2018
First purchase Good post, but isn’t it the other way round? Sorry…
The_buzz
21 Aug 2018
First purchase I posted this on LSE bb as well This morning’s RNS tells us that Investec have increased their shareholding from 10,99% to 11.74% crossing the 11% threshold. A good sign that a major shareholder has significantly increased their shareholding - they ought to be very close to lots of data and would not have added so many shares had they not been convinced that it is a good buy. I think that the current share price is very depressed and has many adverse factors built into it - and presumably also any potential fall out from the House of Fraser that wounded Burbury so much - not that I am aware of any WGB outlets in those stores. I think that Investec can further increase their holding to 11.99% without telling the market, so potentially some more support is there at the current share price. The Buzz
Hugh_Betcha
15 Aug 2018
First purchase You bought at 77p and can sell at 75p (the bid price) but you think that’s break-even? Sounds like a 2.6% loss plus dealing costs both sides but if you’re happy, we’re all happy too.
Greyinvestor
14 Aug 2018
First purchase Actually on a 75p to 79p spread I’m at breakeven, and unworried by that…
Hugh_Betcha
14 Aug 2018
First purchase “In my view they are simply underpriced†is just an assertion. I could have said back in April “they are simply overpricedâ€. And guess what? It would look like I was correct as the shares are down c. 40% . And without wishing to rub it in, even your recent purchase based on your hunch is now underwater.
Greyinvestor
05 Aug 2018
First purchase P.s. My best bet on Brexit is that it will result in lower UK growth and lower sterling, thus helping exporters. This could be totally wrong though, because WTO terms do not help exporters to export in the short term. Exporters may find it very difficult to physically get their stuff into the EU, and even non EU countries. So any short term investing in the UK is inherently dangerous. Hence my high exposure to S E Asia.
Greyinvestor
05 Aug 2018
First purchase If you believe in a perfect market, don’t buy individual shares! I’m not going to bother with detailed analysis at this stage. I’d rather wait for the results. But management have given a clear steer on numbers, and they give a low P/E. Then you have to judge whether those numbers can be maintained. In my view current times are exceptionally difficult due to Brexit, but WGB is not in terrible shape and is on a much lower valuation than it’s peers. To me it therefore represents a) good value and b) an attractive acquisition target. But I am all too often wrong…
Hugh_Betcha
05 Aug 2018
First purchase Greyinvestor: In my view they are simply underpriced… Great. But based on what? Asserting an opinion with no facts, no analysis, no logic is not very informative. And I’m always left wondering about this: if a guy with a PC can look at a share and immediately identify that it is over/under valued, how is it that the rest of the market participants cannot?
TX2
03 Aug 2018
First purchase I also “invested†here the day following the recent 4.26PM update.If the revised figures are met the shares will be good value but I think the present low valuation is correct until we see actual improvements…
