Eadwig
15 Feb 2017
Re: Testing post Brexit highs (again) Eadwig 31 Jan: "If they [post Brexit highs around @330-335p) are breached, especially on strong volume, could cruise up to around @360p (the last placement price) very easily. "Well, they were breached, there was pretty strong volume, and we did cruise up to the @360p level. Indeed, intraday prices have been as high as @364p on occasion in the last few days. It looks like there are some sellers to be exhausted at this level though, before TEF can push on. Where to from here I dunno. Perhaps some treading water around these levels until the trading update in a few weeks, especially with the budget and article 50 on the way.The budget could be excellent for TEF, and no reason why triggering article 50 should be bad, it isn't like it will be a surprise. I just have the feeling the markets may react negatively initially. Inflation figures yesterday not as strong as they have been in recent months, and came in under expectations for the first time in ages, so the chances of a Bank of England rate hike have receded somewhat. "None this year or next year" as an analyst said on BBC yesterday I think is over-optimistic, however.I think I may be tempted to add on any pull back to @330-335p (50 day EMA line) if TEF starts trading in a new range up to the results. If it does, it could be an opportunity for some range trades (say buy @335p, sell @358p, a spread of about 7%) but a little risky due to the external factors over the short term mentioned above. Hence Weak Buy only to reflect the risk and the need for a pull back before adding.I'm confident the full year results will prove to be a catalyst for the share price, come what may, purely based on the bad reaction to the H1 results. A company the size of TEF doesn't have a nice, smooth revenue stream like the larger builders. A lot of commentators didn't seem to get that and the results were taken negatively by many as a result (incorrectly in my judgement).
dazedandconfused
14 Feb 2017
Re: Testing post Brexit highs (again) ...and again! General improvement in many housebuilders this calendar year, perhaps aided by Government announcements (NOT actions..), but TEF seems to be doing better than the bigger boys.
ookyfly
09 Feb 2017
Re: Testing post Brexit highs (again) Up again today by +-1.35%. Slow but sure. Nothing spectacular: steady does it. Very pleased. Lots more to go, with an excellent business model well duited to current conditions.
Eadwig
07 Feb 2017
Re: Testing post Brexit highs (again) Looking very strong of late, especially this week so far, some good news brewing I think.Up against the sector yesterday and up with the sector today.Is it just they are going to benefit from the government incentives to get 700,000 more homes between April 2017 and May 2020? Or something in addition to that?Latest reports show 75% of all spend on London housing currently from overseas - due to Brexit. How ironic for all those thinking they were voting to stop immigration.I'm sure the EMA cross-over in the chart wont be harming this recent run of strength in the short term either.
ookyfly
06 Feb 2017
Re: Testing post Brexit highs (again) Overall in blue, at last. Not much but the trend is clearly up. Lots more to go, I feel.
Eadwig
30 Jan 2017
Testing post Brexit highs (again) If they are breached, especially on strong volume, could cruise up to around @360p (the last placement price) very easily. That will then set TEF up very nicely to push on when April's trading update hopefully confirms the H1 'disappointing performance' has evened out as planned and all, including growth, is on track.Of course, We have article 50 being triggered between now and then ...
Eadwig
28 Jan 2017
Re: Housebuilding on the up Herbie, "Government will be pushing the house builders for more output during the next 24 months"Latest rumour is that Hammond will disappoint with incentives in the budget. Very little new additional money to be made available, they say. We can only hope there is little truth to them, otherwise this housing cycle will finally go into decline until Brexit is sorted out. TEF and its affordable housing somewhat insulated.That will create new opportunities eventually, but 2-4 years of doldrums before yet another very steep growth period of similar length.
Honest Herbie
27 Jan 2017
Housebuilding on the up There is no doubt that the contruction industry is due for a re-rating, as the Government will be pushing the house builders for more output during the next 24 months. At the current share price TEF is a real bargain.
PIE-EATER
27 Jan 2017
IC COMMENT Full page buy recommendation today (online yesterday?)Last IC view buy 312p on Jan 3rdPE(Not sure I want to make anything a STRONG buy just at the moment - market jitters ahead?)
ookyfly
22 Dec 2016
Re: Build to rent sale completed This is further validation of the Telford working model. There's a reference in Tempus this morning. Yet the impact on sp is negligible. I find this baffling.Excellent share. Strong divi. Strong benefits in terms of avoiding IHT. I plan to be a longbterm holder.
Eadwig
21 Dec 2016
Build to rent sale completed Third Build to Rent sale for £48.6 millionTelford Homes is pleased to announce that it has exchanged contracts for the sale of The Forge, Redclyffe Road, E6, to M&G Real Estate. This is the Group's second transaction with M&G following the sale of Carmen Street, E14 in May 2016. The Forge is the Group's third significant build to rent development to date and the sale comprises the freehold interest in the land and the construction of 125 open market homes for net consideration of £48.6 million. The sale to M&G is on a forward funded basis and will comprise an initial land payment followed by regular payments throughout the construction period and therefore will not require debt finance with only limited equity to be invested by the Group. The Forge has full planning permission for 192 new homes including 67 affordable homes which have been sold to a housing association in a separate transaction. The development is currently under construction and anticipated completion is in 2019.Jon Di-Stefano, CEO, commented: "Build to rent is now a significant focus for Telford Homes with these transactions providing certainty over future revenues and cash flows, needing no debt finance and delivering strong returns on capital. We are a valuable partner for large scale investors given that we have the skills required to find land, achieve planning consents and manage and control all construction work.""The sale of The Forge cements the strong relationship that we have formed with M&G Real Estate and we are delighted to be working with them again following the successful sale of Carmen Street earlier this year. Now that we are developing two schemes together I look forward to working closely with Alex Greaves and the M&G team and exploring ways of extending our partnership as we move into 2017.""Telford Homes continues to explore further build to rent opportunities including the potential for longer term partnerships with key investors to enable further sales within a relatively fixed framework and to work together on future site acquisitions."
PIE-EATER
20 Dec 2016
Re: Div interesting that Simon Thompsons recent very positive comments in IC haven't had any noticeable effect. Has the whole market just gone into neutral ahead of the hols as seems to be very little movement amongst "rank and file" stocks. Perhaps a mini Santa rally occurred a few days early?PE
Eadwig
15 Dec 2016
Re: Div UB,I didn't want to mention anything in case I jinxed it - but TEF has been holding up well compared to the rest of the sector. Probably because word got out I sold a tranche @317 expecting to be able to rebuy 5% cheaper - an attempt to average down in reverse. I hope it goes spectacularly wrong as I still have 4 or 5 tranches left.
uselessbaba
13 Dec 2016
Re: Div Safely through ex-div and SP holding up nicely. Could be we're entering a new 310-320 range, lets see if we can hold it !UB.
poetles
02 Dec 2016
Re: Div So they are going to pay 7.2p....a bit lower than I expected, but still good.
