Sirius Minerals Live Discussion

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tiggerman1 22 Apr 2018

Re: Sunday Times 22/04 Despite the odd cautious comment on Poly4 pricing and St 2 financing, I can no more see this failing to open and meet its planned targets than Jeremy Corbyn launching a nuclear missile or Anna Soubry marrying the lovely Jacob Rees - Mogg. Just a bit sad we cant complete and open in 2019.Tig

richardag 22 Apr 2018

Re: Sunday Times 22/04 Just sloppy journalism. Should have read 4.3m tons.

Does not listen 22 Apr 2018

Re: Sunday Times 22/04 I hope a copy & paste error..."Sirius has signed contracts with a number of big agricultural suppliers, which have agreed to buy a total of 4.3 tons of polyhalite a year when the mine is up and running."

Campagna 22 Apr 2018

Re: Sunday Times 22/04 A little bit of self promotion!Vital statisticsBorn: July 15, 1974 Status: married with two children School: Hale, a fee-paying independent in Australia University: Perth, Western Australia First job: trainee accountant at KPMG Pay: £372,000 in 2016 Home: in a Yorkshire village Car: “My favourite mode of transport is my 1953 Harley-Davidson panhead chopper motorbike”Favourite book: product handbook for Poly4 (a Sirius Minerals fertiliser)Film favourite: Star Wars.Music: “My daughter playing her oboe”Gadget: Herrenknecht shaft-boring machine Charity: Sirius Minerals Foundation, which supports local community projectsLast holiday: Hong KongWorking dayChris Fraser usually swims 2½-3km in a pool, lake or the North Sea before driving to Sirius Minerals’ head office in Scarborough.The chief executive has no regular pattern to his day. “I could be briefing investors in London, Miami or New York, or talking to customers in southeast Asia.”He spends about one week a month abroad. When in Yorkshire, he is usually home by 7pm.DowntimeFraser is an endurance sports fanatic. Last year he completed a half-Ironman triathlon, and he has signed up for a long-distance swim in the Thames this year. “It’s daunting — 14 kilometres of swimming. It’s just you and your thoughts.”Cheers.Camp.©Tick-tock tick-tock.[link]

Campagna 22 Apr 2018

Sunday Times 22/04 In a few years from now, Chris Fraser could be one of the most popular men in Yorkshire — provided his outlandish project goes to plan. The 43-year-old is the driving force behind Sirius Minerals, which is digging the biggest mine seen in Britain for decades to tap a rich form of potash-based fertiliser beneath the North York Moors national park.When the company starts extracting polyhalite in 2021, Fraser will begin signing fat royalty cheques. Local landowners such as the Crown Estate and the Duchy of Lancaster are in line to pocket $4.9bn (£3.5bn) over five decades.For an area whose economic decline is exemplified by the faded Victorian splendour of Scarborough, it is a colossal influx of cash. Fraser, a bluff former banker who was born in Somerset but grew up in Australia, will also create 1,000 jobs at the mine, plus 1,500 in the supply chain.Sirius, he says, will help “regenerate an area where there had been nothing but poor agriculture and very seasonal tourism”. He adds that prior to the company’s arrival, “if you wanted a high-paid job you would have had to leave”.There are several substantial obstacles to surmount, however. For one thing, Sirius will have to drill down 1,500 metres to reach the polyhalite deposit. It will also have to carve out a 36km tunnel to carry the ore to a processing plant on the coast, where it will be crushed, turned into granules and shipped overseas.On top of that, Sirius will have to convince farmers that polyhalite is as effective as other potash-based fertilisers. The project is a monumental undertaking, and Fraser has been likened to the 19th-century pioneers at the heart of the Industrial Revolution. Does he ever feel he has taken leave of his senses?“No,” he shoots back, with a chuckle. “Technology has moved on from the days of Brunel. Everything we’ve done, people said we could never do.”Last year, Sirius broke ground on the first stage of the mine, which involves boring two shafts 6.5 metres in diameter. To pay for this, Fraser drummed up $1.2bn from shareholders and other backers. The mining and agriculture tycoon Gina Rinehart, Australia’s richest person, put in $300m.Fraser needs a further $3bn to complete the tunnel, five metres in diameter, that will convey the polyhalite rock to the processing plant on Teesside. Sirius will use a taxpayer guarantee scheme to underpin the debt, for which it will pay the Treasury a fee.“Now we’re into the fun stuff. We’ve been through the pain of the planning process and getting the stage one financing done was hard,” says Fraser.The chief executive hopes to secure letters of commitment from creditors before the end of the year. Sirius has signed contracts with a number of big agricultural suppliers, which have agreed to buy a total of 4.3 tons of polyhalite a year when the mine is up and running. Winning more of these deals is crucial to getting the banks on board.Sirius is quoted on the FTSE 250 and has a market value of £1.3bn. Some analysts believe it could be worth several times this figure in the future, if the mine pans out as Fraser hopes.It aims to tap 2.6bn tons of extractable polyhalite in a seam estimated to be 70 metres thick and to cover an area of more than 775 sq kilometres. 2026, it should have reached full annual production of 20m tons.According to Fraser, Sirius will export fertiliser worth £2.5bn a year, cutting Britain’s trade deficit by several percentage points.The mine’s operating costs will be about $30 a ton. Potash currently trades at nearly $300 a ton — down from $500 in 2014, but still high enough for Sirius to generate healthy profit margins. At least, that is the theory.The problem is that no one, not even Fraser, can predict exactly how much farmers will pay for polyhalite, which contains potash, magnesium, sodium and calcium — four of the six nutrients that are essential for plants to grow. At present, it is a niche offering, produced in relatively s

BoyBlunder1 20 Apr 2018

248,813 Just a small top up to keep the faith.

gaia's kidney 20 Apr 2018

Re: Steadily up now GentlemenI am ideed most gratified that small morsel of bait was deemed worthy of the talking Your steadfast and enduring position (no doubt always objective - in your views and despite all the evidence) ...........can only be admired.Since Fraser appeared on the scene, Sirius has grown from a valuation of some £130m to a present value ten times that. For shareholders who have sat on their position over that 7+ year duration, they have roughly doubled the value of their stake.But as ever and until this reaches (assuming) its endgame of paying back those holders with the much mooted 100y divi stream, there remains valid argument that doubt remains.Fine, that's what still keeps this speculative. Though now far less speculative - and it is of note that so so many of those repeatedly raised doubts of the past have since been bulldozed under with the panning out of the co's think-plan-do approach.Those floating clumps of straw flotsam are getting smaller a scarcer as time passes gentlemen. ---------- -------Prominent risks ahead? St2: co negotiating with gov to maximize the cover, publicly stating: "essential" I see as negotiating. Get it away - large risk reduction.Build: primary risk re delay/cost overrun? The shafts. That risk exacerbated for shareholders from significant gearing from borrowings. DMC - history known. Get to shaft bottom - large risk reduction.GK.

younginvestor95 20 Apr 2018

Just keep growing, just keep growing good to see us back where we were a while ago, hopefully its onward and upward from here. I think we should get some more news on trade contracts soon, as we have had bits of information for months now talking about ongoing talks potential new customers! that would boost the sp a little more also. everything seems to be going to plan with this share, and i don't know if that's a good thing or whether i have just jinxed us! but small changes in sp don't really matter when the majority of us are here for the £2 a share. BW YI

Larry_the_Lock 20 Apr 2018

Re: Steadily up now Here you go, ramp ?[link]

tillerman 20 Apr 2018

Re: Steadily up now PP,I don't think that "de-ramp" will have been of sufficient quality to entertain GK!Ramping/de-ramping: emotive terms implying talking one's own book. Most on here are cheerleaders for SXX who believe that Woodsmith will deliver a wall of cash and that the market has not yet latched on to the company's potential. I wouldn't call them rampers. A few, I presume like yourself, don't have a financial interest, but have a professional or personal interest in the Sirius dream and can provide an alternate point of view. And as such will be castigated as de-rampers.The irony of GK's post of yesterday is that he has been accused of both ramping and de-ramping at various times....Worries I would cite include the D-walling completion being put back from April to the end of the year, the failure (to date) to find the 3rd party that was supposed to finance the port, the falling out with AMC and Hochtief, and the reliance that Scrimshaw has attached to the Government guarantee. I'm also on the page that the conversion take-up of not much more than 20% of the outstanding bonds, despite the underlying threat of the Dutch auction and "reminder" that any dawdlers would be converted at par, hints at some chinks in the financing armour. Now I wonder if that passes GK's test of an entertaining de-ramp?Tillerman

proper pasty 19 Apr 2018

Re: Steadily up now st2?you think the government guarantee will be approved by the risk committee!Of course it will be debt...... really as if co hold all the cards! like stage 1 it will be from anyone and on their terms but with gov guarantee being essential who knows where this is going . well you asked for a deram

fish lips 19 Apr 2018

Re: Steadily up now Maybe he was Dale Winton and that's now the end...

adrenalin 19 Apr 2018

Re: Steadily up now He has been missing for some months. Not around on the Oil boards that he frequented either.

janstu 19 Apr 2018

Re: Steadily up now What's happened to our old doomsayer LKH or have I missed something?

tony hawk 19 Apr 2018

Re: Not so much dilution-H.S. That’s says it all I didn’t think you were the sharpest ever heard of sarcasm

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