Sirius Minerals Live Discussion

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icebilly 24 May 2019

RNS Capital sell 30% of holding? Ignore headline, I am just adding to the story. New RHS today 18.07GMT. And now we know what Capitol were doing by selling massively in February and April. They were betting on a fall in the SP, come stage 2 funding. The RNS at 6.00pm tonight confirmed they are now rebuilding their holding at a nice low 15p, hoovering up them sells.

icebilly 24 May 2019

Broker note Yes, I did see this yesterday, and other analysists value/aiming at a 35p target. SXX is undervalued and now more construction news that will help SP, or another offtake agreement. Funding risks are being risk reduced. it will be nice to hear when the Wilton TBM is tunnelling.

Snowman24 24 May 2019

Broker note Liberum issued their post fund raising thoughts yesterday. There is more detail on how the RCF works. They will initially bond $500m and then following each drawdown of a further $500m, more bonds will follow. The bonds will yield 10%. The RCF reduces by $300m following each bond issue, therefore creating $200m or buffer. After the full RCF is drawn therefore there is a total buffer of $1bn. This is good for the project but obviously does mean the company can slide further into debt. Liberum have moved their numbers round a little, spread the cash flow out a little more evenly and less concentrated in the first 3-4 years but reduce their NPV to account for dilution to 68p. Assuming $125 Poly. They set a target price of 60% of this at 40p. The revised S2 funding knocked 10p off the target. ALSO the aim is to get the bond done by June with flexibility to September. Sounds like it might be done. So I think you can look forward to funding being in place and S2 being complete. The story finally moves on to build and cost. The shares can clearly rally significantly from here on news the bond is complete. There will be decent 2 way trade in the shares since new holders are in at 15p but somewhere around 25p could be achieved in the next 12 months. The company achieved a £2bn mkt cap previously and even accounting for negatives of higher costs I would expect it trade up there again.

icebilly 23 May 2019

Construction update Finally, we have news, just announced on Facebook page. “Stella Rose” TBM imminently to enter Wilton portal and start tunnelling to wards Lockwood Beck. Commissioning and launch preparations almost done. Go Sirius, XXXXXXX.

icebilly 23 May 2019

Rns declares new investers We have 2 new RNS share declarations at lunchtime today. Pelham 5% and Qatar 3% So Qataris and Pelham are now in big along with Gina, Jupiter, and Norway. wow.

icebilly 23 May 2019

Tipped today as a speculative buy And so the company returns to the old worth capitalisation today. We are a 1 billion company again with the new shares in circulation, and we all have to wait a while to get back into the blue.

riverside_red 23 May 2019

Tipped today as a speculative buy Dipped below 15p in early trading.

icebilly 22 May 2019

Tipped today as a speculative buy Lot of buying in the last hour of trading. Some gambling by day traders possibly, for a small move up tomorrow. What will happen? Will MMs tempt people to sell their new shares? We can only wait and see.

Ripley94 22 May 2019

Tipped today as a speculative buy SXX… XXXXX No sense in it oversubscribed OO price fell below my 15p buy limit which lifted ( D ) And they want to charge to apply to buy a few more in offer… lol

Snowman24 22 May 2019

Tipped today as a speculative buy Passage of time and strong performance relative to budget will drive future appetite. On time On budget are the magic words.

Does_not_listen 22 May 2019

Tipped today as a speculative buy Or might this be an indicator for future appetite (& dilution)?

Snowman24 22 May 2019

Tipped today as a speculative buy Intersting Q as I understand it, you can’t over subscribe an open offer, it was 100% taken up which is unusually high…normally a fraction below or in the 90’s is expected. The placing will have been oversubscribed as cover for the open offer and now this will be scaled back. You will get exactly your entitlement.

daw2905 21 May 2019

Tipped today as a speculative buy Anyone any idea by how much the open offer was oversubscribed? I’d assumed it would be greatly oversubscribed so I’ve asked for more in the excess facility than I have already own, on the basis it would be scaled back. If its not scaled back much then my portfolio is going to look somewhat overweight in SXX!!

icebilly 21 May 2019

Tipped today as a speculative buy Lots of buying this morning at 15.5p Sells 6M, Buys 40Million shares Bargain buying?

Snowman24 19 May 2019

Share placing SXX Ok, here goes. Lets put aside say Govt social policy and just agree to agree that its in everyones interest for SXX to be as efficient and as competitive as possible. The government guarantee SXX wanted would effectively have acted as a bond guarantee and ironically underwritten a decent chunk of value for the equity. The reason being the full capital cost of the project would be guaranteed and therefore only the long term economics ( costs and pricing) open to debate. Why does the govt need to hand the equity and debt such a risk guarantee? and arguably attract a lot of criticism should the long term economics prove favourable. My conclusion is with this guarantee removed the advantages of having the government involved were sufficiently diminished for JP Morgan to offer an alternative. (Govt having little impact on borrowing costs without a guarantee). SXX is a huge capital cost to get a manufacturing business up and running, cost overruns in the build out phase will seriously impact equity value. Why is this important? Well the company want to finance most of the capex bill with debt… should the cost over runs be high before substantial capex is incurred the debt owners could panic, and pull the project. Once a substantial, lets say more than half, part of the capex is incurred the sunk costs are probably high enough such that the work in progress has value and can be sold, with someone else taking on future capex commitments. Therefore the debt chaps wanted a solution that didn’t expose them to being committed to the current full capex projection irrespective of likely final cost. This is why the RCF being released in stages with conditions solves the equation for the debt guys. Otherwise they would face the gun to head situation in extreme overruns of losing everything or continuing to offer further finance / effectively a debt for equity swap in the extreme. The equity is an option on future cash flows, which have little validity until the project is substantially complete. However the equity is useful to the bond holders since it can absorb cost overruns and be a vehicle for raising any shortfalls thus protecting the bonds from the project costs escalating. Ironically the best way to prevent these costs running away is to exert maximum pressure through public equity and disclosure on management to avoid them. Not in a cosy government guarantee. So whilst this doesn’t guarantee near term share price performance, it is probably the best solution for the project, and local employment …and the long term economics of POLY. Im afraid the management have been economical with the truth through the whole stage I and II financing with regard to equity holders. Maybe they are no longer the right people to take this forward. Its also worth noting that the government could also be a source of future finance if and when its needed to get the project complete.