San Leon Energy Live Discussion

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linksdean 13 May 2019

Could be interesting! Energy News | Oil and Gas News – 13 May 19 Nigeria dominates crude production outlook from greenfield projects – Global... Nigeria will contribute 46% of sub-Saharan Africa’s total crude production from planned and announced projects (greenfield projects) in 2025, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. The company’s report: ‘H1 2019 Production and...

linksdean 13 May 2019

Could be interesting! Nigerian News Direct – 13 May 19 Fossil fuel to account for 53% of world energy demand up to 2040 – Avuru -... by Samuel Ibiyemi With the global energy trans-formation defining the energy landscape and world economies, fossil fuel will still account for 53 per cent of the world energy demand even up to 2040. This was made known by the Chief Executive Officer,...

Alaric 13 May 2019

Buy-back Indeed agree with that (influence of boards) and nor am i suggesting it. nonetheless Tosca’s participation in the Tender, after Oisin had intimated (we presume having been so assured by MH) that they wouldn’t, was perceived as a negative disconnect in this otherwise highly positive context. it will be interesting to see now how further capital returns to shareholders may be impacted by discussions with NNPC concerning the acquisition of %s in OMLs, particularly of course 18.

Eadwig 13 May 2019

Buy-back Alaric: I just think at the time it was cosmetically poor and helpful manure for the trolls to shovel. Perhaps, but I doubt anything said on various boards has any impact on the share price. Any serious investor can’t see Tosca ending up with a bigger percentage as a negative and even small timers know that it isn’t good to have all your eggs in one basket. In other words there could be simple prudence being shown by Tosca whose pockets aren’t bottomless. Overall it seemed like a generous move to price the buyback so far above the market price, but only for those who bought sub the last placement. I wonder if they will do the tender offer again. I was quite interested to see what a buyback would do to the share price in the open market given the relatively low liquidity assuming institutions involved in the placement @45p wouldn’t sell at a loss. Only an academic interest, you understand. I’m quite happy for them to do the same again, but I did buy on the assumption that the buyback would be in the open market allowing standard supply and demand to come into play. I may be doing the same again if the next buyback is announced in the same way - there was nothing in the announcement that hinted at the tender process used.

Alaric 13 May 2019

Buy-back Indeed it wasn’t and isn’t a huge deal and Tosca did end up with more stock, as you say. I just think at the time it was cosmetically poor and helpful manure for the trolls to shovel.

Eadwig 13 May 2019

Buy-back Alaric: My reference to Tosca’s siw was simply their bizarre decision to participate in the Tender, having patently told OF they wouldn’t Ah, I see. I was aware of that, but don’t see it as a huge deal, they still ended up with a significant increase in their percentage holding. Thanks for taking the time to respond.

Alaric 13 May 2019

Buy-back OK, my last post on this for a bit. If Martin Hughes hadn’t rated OF, he’d have gone a long time ago - simple as that. As for Jite he seems intent on becoming a highly significant shareholder in San Leon and since I guess he knows their principal asset and management as well as anyone, that tells us a lot (unless of course he shares your perversity of buying AIM stocks whose managements he doesn’t trust!). For what it’s worth, I agree that hitherto Oisin has been over rewarded - if, as I believe he will, he delivers the value I expect here through the whole evolution of the OML18 transactions, then that’s fine by me and good luck to him. My reference to Tosca’s siw was simply their bizarre decision to participate in the Tender, having patently told OF they wouldn’t. It perhaps raised questions about the relationship between the 2 men, but more likely revealed more about Tosca’s at times mercurial investment culture. Either way it was a storm in a teacup, which some people on the Bbs like to make much of.

Eadwig 13 May 2019

Buy-back Alaric: No disrespect intended, Eadwig, but their opinion of our management matters to me and yours doesn’t. I’m in very little doubt their opinion of the management is the same as mine, but I guess we’ll never know. O.F. is obviously serving some kind of role that they value at a couple of million a year. Good work if you can get it. I never said I just look at management within an AIM company, although i do believe it is very often the most important component. However, I’m not interested in arguing the toss about that. I am interested in your reference to Alaric: the Tosca self - inflicted wound … I’m not aware of such that would affect the share price since the Tender Offer. Care to enlighten us? It might knock your ramping rating down. There has been nothing posted here about it, and I find other boards on SLE unreadable.

Alaric 13 May 2019

Buy-back I never thought of this board as a competition between posters as such, or as a bare all detailed expose of one’s portfolio. so please excuse me if I don’t play that little game with you. And bully for you for your self righteous candour and for your admission that you’re still running a loss here. Whilst it is true I am surprised the SP has fallen back as far post tender (I see this as a function of the news vacuum and the Tosca self - inflicted wound) this hasn’t affected the overall value proposition, which remains outstanding in my opinion (you appear to agree with my last statement at least, since you say you are considering buying more). So the principal difference between us today would appear to be simply that I don’t buy AIM stocks just by looking at pictures of their management nor where I consider the management poor or untrustworthy (the fact that you say you do and seem quite proud of the fact perhaps tells us much about you as an investor). Clearly both Martin Hughes and Jite Okoloko respect and get on with Oisin Fanning. These two people have been fundamental to our recent success and both are impressive in their own right. No disrespect intended, Eadwig, but their opinion of our management matters to me and yours doesn’t.

Eadwig 13 May 2019

Buy-back Alaric: You must have got burnt bad here to be that bitter. Sure it’s way too cheap today based on all the fundamentals but I don’t think for you. You really shouldn’t be anywhere near a stock like San Leon. I don’t class making 52% in 6 months as getting burnt. That is good business by almost anyone’s standards (not in Oisin’s league of course, but then I’m not pocketing your capital). If my next trade on SLE goes half as well I’ll then be claiming myself in profit. One of the very few, along with the almighty Alaric even. The difference will be that I will no longer have any significant amount of capital at risk - and I will be telling the truth - almost all of it in black and white, posted ‘live’ so that anyone can verify my claims. Still, I wont count my chickens just yet. This is SLE after all, a contender for the worst run company on AIM, which is really saying something. If you can’t see that you are the one that shouldn’t be anywhere near it, Alaric, rather than still ramping desperately as in your recent list of reasons why the share price is about to ‘surge’. Back to Half Way Up The Stairs I think it will be possible to top up in the @30s and sell at the next buyback (10% - 30% maybe) @50p,’. Back to Half Way Up The Stairs well good luck with all that. you might get a few at 39p short term if you’re very quick and very lucky but if you deal in any kind of volume here, being out of this stock already, with such a tight free float now, is no place to be. and if they do another tender (and I think they will) i’d wager it will be for considerably more than 50p. … and there it is in black and white. Any objective investor can see who has read the movement of this stock most accurately. And I’m the one diversified across nearly 30 other stocks that I have to keep an eye on, not wagering all my money on one single story in the belief there’s a big killing just around the corner.

Alaric 12 May 2019

Buy-back Heh get it off your chest, Eadwig, why don’t you. You must have got burnt bad here to be that bitter. Sure it’s way too cheap today based on all the fundamentals but I don’t think for you. You really shouldn’t be anywhere near a stock like San Leon.

Eadwig 12 May 2019

Buy-back Ripley94: Surprised i did not post when i bought back a couple of times after tender offer. I’m pretty sure you did. I seem to remember a buy @39p then another @38p? Serious Questions Market Discussions Like I said, I don’t want to put anyone off at this stage, it may be that after a long, long wait SLE are finally about to come good. It is a terribly difficult company structure to understand though. That’s quite normal when you’re dealing with an international Tier 1 (first class) asset like OML18. However, SLE is further complicated by one shareholder, Tosca, now owning 72% of the company, although, on the surface at least, SLE is still being run by the board of directors. That situation … That is the thread they are in. Kudos for posting your buys ‘live’, by the way. Ultimately it is the only way we have of separating the real shareholders and/or traders from the rampers.

Eadwig 12 May 2019

Buy-back Ripley94: I see they have gone even lower now any reason ? A vacuum of news, as I predicted in anther thread, that will allow the share price to drift downwards at least until the announcement of the next buyback IF it is a tender offer like the previous one. IF they tell us what type of buyback it will be. One needs to note Alaric is one of the main rampers of SLE and scoffed at my prediction of the shareprice falling well below @40p for those who wished to sell at the max tender offer and then take a chance on rebuying later for a repeat performance. He’s very close-in with the company now, or likes to think he is, being one of the biggest private shareholders (he must be if he’s standing in profit as he says he is because he first bought before the 1:100 reverse split) and on first name terms with the atrocious CEO Oisin Fanning. I’d be very wary of his predictions on the share price ‘surging’ on ANY news other than one about repayment of monies to shareholders. He’s been saying thee same for many, many years. But his prediction is out there and so is mine. You can read so make your own mind up. Personally I may well buy again @35p, if it goes that low. I’m in no hurry though, SLE do everything at a snails pace and right now we still don’t know how many shares are actually held by which major shareholders so it is hard to judge a tender offer buyback, how many shares a private investor can hope to sell at the tender offer price and how many will then have to be sold in the open market at a lesser price. While such things are left so difficult to judge the shareprice is bound to drift. Not many people can sit on cash earning nothing and be happy about it. One point to remember is that the share price FELL eventually after the last buyback announcement. I doubt there will be the same delay as last time, or the same fall now there has been the first actual repayment of monies by SLE to shareholders, but there should be plenty of time to choose whether to re-buy in or not. I think we can assume the buyback will be at least @46p, though I doubt I will be able to sell 72% of my stock at the buyback price as I managed last time. (I still don’t know how it worked out to be 72% after the 60% figure stated in the RNS but I’m not complaining, I made 52% in 6 months on the trade which is pretty good business, and could have been better if I had waited before buying). Still a buy at, say @35p after costs, a Tender sale of maybe 25% @46p or higher and then a sale of 75% in the open market while still above @40p is still going to represent a good trade at the next buyback. I’m sure Alaric will tell us, if he responds at all, that these prices are on the low side. I hope so, but I’m being conservative. I’ve been burnt too many times by SLE optimism. Eadwig

Alaric 12 May 2019

Buy-back Hopefully the link works now :

Alaric 12 May 2019

Buy-back key highlights for me were: Output from OML18 likely to surge by a third on completion of new pipeline (before end 2019) Billion barrels of oil, trillion cubic feet of gas No creditors $170m more cash by end 2020 Strategy of continuing cash back to shareholders

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