numberbiter
19 Jan 2017
Re: Hmmmm Disorder,It is not a question of lying or otherwise. I just think given the facts the Board's outlook is optimistic. Let us look at the figures from their latest Annual Report. All figures in £'000Cash inflow from operating activities. 14.465Cash outflow on investments. (31,024)Dividends paid (10,934)They reduced their 'cash' deficit by issuing shares 13,356 and increasing bank loans by 10.000.Net debt at the beginning of the period was 62,833 and at the end of the period had increased to 80,760.Now the profit warning suggests that for various reasons things are going to get worse. Given that the last cash inflow from operating activities hardly covered the dividend, it is difficult to see how the next set of results will show cash inflow from operating activities covering priority investments (the figure for priority investments is not stated) and dividends leaving a surplus to reduce debt. It simply does not add up, whether you like it or not.
Bill1703
19 Jan 2017
Re: Hmmmm "The Balance Sheet remains sound. Really? Net debt stands at £81 miillion or 57p per share, compared to losses of 5.9p. Is that a sound Balance Sheet."NB - net debt actually £107m, including the pretty substantial pension deficit. I have ND/EBITDA up at 2.6x on most recent figures, and sounds like this will jump again. Not sure what levels are cited in covenants, but it's often 3-3.5x... though such covenants will typically look at the figures ex-pension deficit (rightly or wrongly).My guess is they will remain within covenant levels, and free cash flow has always remained pretty decent, so they should be able to pay debt down... but possibly at the expense of the dividend, in the near term.I am also less concerned by the bottom-line losses in the last two years, which include very large non-cash charges relating to the accounting treatment of intangible assets. But still, this is an area to keep a close eye on. "My opinion, grossly oversold and a typical overdone reaction to what was bad news, but not catastrophic news.... I expect a rebound to circa £1 levels with ease. (Probably by this time next week)... My Opinion = Strong Buy at these levels."Disorder - yes, on balance, they are quite likely now oversold... but equally easy to understand the severe market retribution. With big questions remain outstanding on, inter alia, the balance sheet and dividend, and the 'true' underlying profitability of the business.But the valuation was extremely undemanding before this, so could well still look attractive enough even post the slashing to forecasts we're now going to see. Wouldn't be surprised to see £1 again before long, but this time next week could well be optimistic.I wouldn't sell here if I held them, but only a Speculative Buy at best for the moment.
Disorder
19 Jan 2017
Re: Hmmmm "This is nit [sic] as straightforward as the Board would like you to think."Are you stating that they lying?, or just insinuating that they are lying?Let me get this right.With regards to the latest RNS warning.The bad bits are in your opinion right.The positive bits are wrong.Maybe you would be better placed on the board of SIV.Anyway, I digress.The board state.."The Balance Sheet remains sound and we have the necessary cash flow capabilities to support our investment priorities and to further reduce debt."Pretty straightforward to me. Certain the board would not want to be lining themselves up for the firing squad by lying.Also... If you know how bad announcements are run they will "overplay" if possible, therefore: "it is unlikely that we will see the full benefit of the new work we have won until the final quarter of the current financial year."Could they be leaving room for maneuvering and presenting the city with good news by delivering "Before" the final quarter.My opinion, grossly oversold and a typical overdone reaction to what was bad news, but not catastrophic news.I expect a rebound to circa £1 levels with ease. (Probably by this time next week)My Opinion = Strong Buy at these levels.I do have a vested interest in SIV and own shares.
numberbiter
19 Jan 2017
Re: Hmmmm The Balance Sheet remains sound and we have the necessary cash flow capabilities to support our investment priorities and to further reduce debt.Well, let us examine this 'to further reduce debt'. Strange then that in the last accounting period debt increased. The word 'further' seems misplaced.The Balance Sheet remains sound. Really? Net debt stands at £81 miillion or 57p per share, compared to losses of 5.9p. Is that a sound Balance Sheet. We have the necessary cash flow capabilities to support our investment priorities and etc.Well, this all depends on how small the investment priorities are,This is nit as straightforward as the Board would like you to think.
Disorder
19 Jan 2017
Hmmmm Kudos to some who predicted the warning, but really??The talk here is akin to a dead man walking."The Board remains confident in the long term strategy currently being pursued, and in the growth opportunities open to the Group. The balance sheet remains sound and we have the necessary cash flow capabilities to support our investment priorities and to further reduce debt."Let me repeat that..." The balance sheet remains sound and we have the necessary cash flow capabilities to support our investment priorities and to further reduce debt."From this point it can only be classed as a Strong Buy surely. 
glasgowboy
19 Jan 2017
PEEL HUNT On 10 January, Peel Hunt reiterated its 'buy' recommendation with a 175p target that suggests 35% upside from its current 130p level, backed by a yield of over 6%. Other fair value targets include N+1 Singer's 182p and company broker Numis's 190p, representing 40% and 46% upside respectivelyTo think these get paid for dishing out this drivel , its really guesswork from what I see .
Bill1703
19 Jan 2017
Re: Gulp "The word 'material' in accounts speak means 'significant' so if the company says the their financial performance will be materially below market expecectations, they are saying (based on their previous reports) they are heading for significant losses."NB - no, I don't think it means that. Significant, yes, but will be most likely to be referencing underlying profits.Market expectations were previously for underlying EPS around, or just below, last year's 17.6p. So we should expect this to come down significantly - but not necessarily loss-making at the bottom line, that will likely depend on any resulting write-offs, charges or other one-offs. The question is, where will it leave the 7.8p FY divi? Previous expectations were for it to be held, but that looks doubtful now, particularly with the debt situation... a +10% yield at the SP now suggests the market is already cutting it. "The profit warning ... was severe, so I don't believe the market overreacted. If this.... makes their bankers nervous and there is sudden talk of covenants, then things could get a lot worse..."I agree, debt levels are a key focus... and the one thing that probably stops it from being a screaming "value" buy down here.FWIW... looks like Numis have since reiterated their Buy call, with target price down to 155p from 180p.
numberbiter
19 Jan 2017
Re: Gulp Marktime, what you should learn from this is two things
1) Ignore so called 'expert' analysts. Most of them haven't got a clue and they simply talk up the share price of the companies they are involved in, regardless of the facts. Obviously, because of the law of averages some of their company's shares will increase. Like gamblers, they play on the winners and ignore losers,(2) Learn to read the basics of company accounts, if you look at the accounts included in the 2016 Annual Report you will see the company declared a loss for the last two years, but the worst aspect is that the company has a high level of debt.The word 'material' in accounts speak means 'significant' so if the company says the their financial performance will be materially below market expecectations, they are saying (based on their previous reports) they are heading for significant losses. Furthermore, they have said they don't expect to recover lost business before their last quarter in 2017 and even then they will be at reduced margins.The profit warning put out by the company today was severe, so I don't believe the market overreacted. If this profits warning makes their bankers nervous and there is sudden talk of covenants, then things could get a lot worse, My advice would be to sell at even this low price and invest in a company thata) Makes a profit;(b) Generates more cash than net profit in a financial year; and(C) Has net cash or little debt.
Daxies
19 Jan 2017
Re: Gulp Yep ....... But it would be nice to win once in a while. LOLI nearly bought yesterday but took the plunge on the fall this morning. Out of the ashes?
marktime1231
19 Jan 2017
Gulp So this becomes my second big mistake, after the shambles at PFD.The reaction to a gloomy update has been severe, a 40% crash, have the numbers been so bad does the market now expect dividends to be slashed?All the sentiment and my instinct was for this fundamentally good business to overcome difficulties and look forward to a 30-40% upswing. Too late to sell now, so I might hang on in hope of a sustained dividend.What should I learn from this ... you can't win 'em all?
idontwanttolose
19 Jan 2017
Peel Hunt A little embarrassing to say the least for Peel Hunt!!I wonder why they recommended the stock when I read the Pre-close trading update Current SP is minus 47% to 80p per share
II Editor
17 Jan 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Stockwatch: A cheap share with 6% yield "FTSE small-cap marketing services group LSE:SIV:St Ives continues to enjoy support from brokers, but is it poised for further re-rating?On 10 January, Peel Hunt reiterated its 'buy' recommendation with a 175p target that suggests 35% upside from ..."[link]
mantrova
04 Oct 2016
Re: 180p....now 190p Numis today reaffirms its buy investment rating on St Ives PLC price target to 190p (from 180p).glam
mantrova
29 Sep 2016
180p Numis very recently reiterated 180p target price and div 7.8p.Looking good here.m
Sambram
11 Aug 2016
important trading update, results helping regain market confidence "St Ives has issued an in-line trading update for FY16. This is key to a further recovery in the stock that is still materially undervalued. At the revenue line Strategic Marketing was in-line, while Books and Marketing Activation are both ahead. Harry Potter has fed book volumes and re-prints mean a good start to FY17. Marketing Activation has seen a better performance driven by business wins. Profits are in-line at divisional levels in all segments. With FY16 finished we look to FY17 as a confidence builder. At this stage Books looks healthy and wins/activity in Strategic Marketing and Marketing Activation support a normal outlook at this stage. The strength in the US$ means net debt will be modestly higher than our forecast (c£2m). This is not an issue from our perspective and we expect the dividend to be maintained given strong cover (c2.2x)."Singers update on Research Tree
