marktime1231
20 Mar 2017
Re: Now which way Well I put my SIV stake up at a come-get-me price and someone did. First time I have done this, but the realisation of the Loss means I will now drop back below the CGT threshold for '16-'17. Time will show if that was the right move.I don't think I have a fundamental problem with picking investments, at least I hope not, based on value for a short-term return or good yield for the longer term. We all make mistakes / have a bit of bad luck. Over the year I have realised +13% by trading, mostly in the same no-brainer stocks like BKG and PFC, plus 9% in dividends. The pot is currently showing +7% including the two remaining dogs DX and PFD, which I will hold hoping these recover in the next 12 months.
numberbiter
17 Mar 2017
Re: Now which way My recommendation is you sell this share to get below the capital gains limit. You might pick some bad ones (like this one) but you must be doing something right to get to the CG tax free limit. So I wouldn't worry, But I would not buy St Ives back; there are far better investment opportunities out there.
nk1999
17 Mar 2017
Re: Now which way If you (like me) think that there is more upside from here than downside: I would suggest looking at Bed-and-ISA type of option, i.e. selling your holding to crystallise the loss and buying inside and ISA or SIPP wrapper.Please don't take as advice. DYOR etc.
Boring Bernie
16 Mar 2017
Re: Now which way If you think St Ives sp is going to drop, it's a no-brainer, sell and save a bit of tax.Personally I think there's more upside than downside here, so bought back in last week, but another profits warning wouldn't go down well and would defo see you worse off than you currently are. A lot depends on your attitude to risk tbh. As a more general point, look back over your buys and sells over the last few years.If you're "getting it wrong" a lot and losing money on a regular basis, take a step back and think about why.
marktime1231
16 Mar 2017
Now which way I don't see much joy on the horizon for this stock. It is not worth holding for the modest dividend pending a turnaround is it. Shame though, I bought thinking this was a basically sound business with upswing potential. Hard to admit defeat, the third bad pick of the year for me.Does it make any sense to sell a weak holding at this time of the year, in order to crystallise the Loss - for example if I was to sell my SIV stake in the next couple of weeks - to put total Capital Gains for the year back under the £11,100 threshold?Of course I have nothing against paying tax, but nor do I wish to be invite a little CGT when taking the SIV loss might only be a question of timing.
numberbiter
11 Mar 2017
Re: Interims "In a nutshell, cash flow has improved." Well, NO it hasn't! The best figure to use to make this judgement is 'cash inflow from operating activities before movement in working capital.' These figures are (£'000) current six months 12,745, previous six months 18,948, previous full year 34,603.So cash inflow is decreasing rapidly. It only looked good because 'payables' increased nearly £10 million in the period, roughly the same amount that debt came down. So the reality is that no progress has been made to reduce debt as once these creditors have been paid debt goes back up to where it was,If, as you say, the company are trying to sell their loss making businesses then we are likely to be in the position of a fire sale, which will mean a massive reduction in the value of the company's intangible assets. In fact, if you take all intangible assets out of the Balance Sheet, there is not much else left. In my view, this company is in deep trouble. You can only get away with delaying paying creditors only once.
Meanbugger
07 Mar 2017
Re: Interims Yes it looks as if there is no additional bad news. A goodwill write-off and a cut interim dividend but they were fully expected. Talk of strengthening the balance sheet and hints of selling the marketing activation and books divisions. So they will see if they can achieve acceptable prices for the disposals but if not then some form of fundraising is probably necessary.There is a lot of turnover here at a modest valuation but from experience these situations are quite risky and very vulnerable to further dips in trading without much forward visibility. I'm going to keep an eye on it as when it recovers there will be good money to be made but I still feel it is too early.
Boring Bernie
07 Mar 2017
Interims So, in a nutshell, cash flow has improved and debt has been reduced, but this has been, at least partly, at the expense of the divi which has been decimated. So the management no longer have their head in the sand.At this point it's starting to look like a recovery play
numberbiter
02 Mar 2017
Dripping down.......(now 52p) Until the next 'profits warning'.
Meanbugger
18 Feb 2017
Re: Loss of value I always find it instructive to look at failing companies. SIV has paid too much for goodwill-based businesses and has a balance sheet loaded with debt and a pension deficit. It's now at the stage where some of the acquired businesses are not delivering the expected returns so it has to impair the goodwill in its balance sheet. Sadly it is very easy for a business to enter a spiral of decline as it looks to cut costs to minimise the impact of reduced profitability while in the meantime the balance sheet continues to deteriorate.It looks far too early to think about a punt in this one.
numberbiter
10 Feb 2017
Loss of value This share has now lost 80% of its value in 12 months. It is understandable that those holding the share now believe they might as hold on as there is so little left that they haven't got much to lose. However, the recommendation is to sell half as an each way bet.
idontwanttolose
09 Feb 2017
Bang on N B Credit Suisse said sell PNN about a month ago! they are up about 30p today on a TSI would not be brave enough to buy SIV in any eventas always DYOR it is so important
numberbiter
09 Feb 2017
Re: Profit warning Richgym, brokers do occasionally get it right, but following them for the long term is likely a road to poverty, as your numbers illustrate.
Richygm
09 Feb 2017
Re: Profit warning Broker views: 25-Jan-17 Peel Hunt Limited …¬ Buy 76.00p 0.00p 110.00p Reiteration 19-Jan-17 numis …¬ Buy 76.00p 0.00p 155.00p Reiteration 11-Aug-16 numis …¬ Buy 123.00p 0.00p 180.00p Reiteration 16-Feb-16 N 1 Singer …¬ Buy 231.25p 0.00p 249.00p Reiteration Also, the IC had them as a BUY late last year. I almost bought a load. Would have lost at least 50%!
numberbiter
09 Feb 2017
Re: Profit warning I accept it is too early to call the end which is why I used the word 'possibe' rather than 'probable'. But this share is falling like a stone, down another 4% today.The signs are not good, so those holding these shares should think carefully.
