Royal Mail Live Discussion

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dannysuede 15 Aug 2018

Can anyone help

Fusion98 09 Jul 2018

Bought Back in! Down to 486 so it wont be long until i get my 440 entry level Good luck all

Fusion98 08 Jun 2018

Re: Bought Back in! Since November last year, 8 months ago, Really??Look again---------- ---------- ----I think you are dreaming personally with those levels as RMG has come on leaps and bounds since then.

onewayticket 08 Jun 2018

Re: Bought Back in! I think you are dreaming personally with those levels as RMG has come on leaps and bounds since then.The 5% Dividend now into the bargain (and progressive) says it has probably entered oversold territory as there are not many solidly performing companies on the main market that can pay and have plenty of cover for that sort of dividend. All the goodies bought off the internet have to be delivered and we are all being served up daily reminders that it is impacting on the high street and leading to difficulties. Toys r Us, Maplin, New Look, M+S, House of Fraser, Poundland.You also need to look beyond the UK for where RMG is making solid money.Own due diligence

Fusion98 08 Jun 2018

Re: Bought Back in! I'm looking to get back in but i think your entry is too premature. Personally i am looking for 440p or lower. In Jan this year it was about 430p and see no reason as to why this level will not be seen again. The sell off since mid may has been quite dramatic and sees no effort to stop at present.There is strong support at 380p, lets see if it gets that low, time will tell.Fusion98

onewayticket 08 Jun 2018

About 5% Dividend at 480p "The Board is recommending a final dividend of 16.3 pence per ordinary share, payable on 31 August 2018 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 27 July 2018, subject to shareholder approval at the AGM on 19 July 2018. This gives a total dividend for the year of 24.0 pence."A healthy return for any income portfolio and not a bad return given the previous recent statement, the improvements made over the period and particularly on the industrial relations front. Progressive nature of the dividend also helps.Own due diligence

deshulme 06 Jun 2018

Bought Back in! Decided today to get my foot back in the door. Wasn't comfortable when share rice hit £6.20 and decided to take the profits. Most shops on the high Street are struggling or closing acclerating the push towards online shopping and there does seem to be a explosion in small self emloyed Online retailers working from home or business units. All said and done Royal Mail does seem the natural choice for both new and old business'Summer is usually the quite period for Royal Mail, but it does seem busier than usual. The new boss has taken over and already the new technolodgy is being introduced. Parcels left with neighbours will need the address inputing into the PDA's and one's left in safe places will have a mandertory option to take a image of the parcel and where it has been left. Also the introduction of 1am acceptance times for customers at all mail centers across the UK, effectively offering upto same deliveries for some items. All decisions now will be based around increasing Parcels, Packages around the country . Interesting that Royal Mail has a license for the ~USOb until 2021 where there could be some tough dcisions to be made with OFCOM.

onewayticket 05 Jun 2018

Re: GDPR GDPR will impact significantly more on emails if the number of amended privacy policy and GDPR emails I have received over the last week to ten days are anything to go by. Those don't require stamps to send so its a couple of clicks and an easy unsubscribe if desired.Incidentally as of the end of March 18 its now 67p for a first class stamp and 58p for a second class stamp, with both having increased 2p.Large letter first class, and large letter second class also increased by 3p each respectively.Not mentioned I suspect by some analysts but these increases, and twice last years, all add to the bottom line.[link] due diligence

onewayticket 05 Jun 2018

Balanced Article in Shares Magazine I wonder how many of these headwinds are in actual fact the same headwinds regurgitated and being used to let clients fill up prior to the next ex-dividend. For those interested there is actually a good BALANCED article in Shares magazine from Friday just whereby Shares Magazine comes out in support of Royal Mail as a contrarian play. They have a good track record in picking winning plays.It highlights Berenbergs bear case which seems mainly centred around GDPR and its impact on unsolicited mail and that some competitors are looking to deliver either same day or on Sundays (My own thoughts are you will need scale and mass and to change traditions to be profitable imvho). The Article concludes as follows.“In the year to March, operating profit before transformation costs rose 1% to £694m, beating consensus forecasts at £654m.The strong performance was supported by organic growth at overseas division GLS thanks to organic sales growth and acquisitions.Investec analayst Alex Paterson says Royal Mail’s outlook has been transformed as it unlocks potential productivity improvements, flagging anticipated benefits from automation.We remain confident in Royal Mail, which pays a generous dividend yield of 4.4% (now probably slightly more) and believe it can continue to recover despite the potential headwinds identified by Bernberg.”Shares Magazine is subscription only but can be found on any good newsagents shelves or there are online trials for about £1 per week.Own due diligenceOwn due diligence


More headwinds for Royal Mail, says Liberum More headwinds for Royal Mail, says LiberumLiberum is predicting further headwinds for Royal Mail (RMG) and the productivity improvements are a stretch.Analyst Gerald Khoo retained his ‘sell’ recommendation and lowered the target price from 450p to 415p on the stock on a ‘more cautious outlook for letters revenue on GDPR’. The shares rose 3p to 499.4p yesterday.He said ‘general business uncertainty adds short-term headwinds to our longer-term bear case’ and that Royal Mail would struggle to ‘fully offset declining letters revenue with parcels growth, some of which is driving higher costs and adverse productivity’.‘The latter remains a key challenge, with the combination of pay rises, non-wage inflation, and working week reductions requiring productivity improvements well in excess of the historic achieved rate,’ said Khoo[link]

Fat Paul 04 Jun 2018

GDPR Judging by the amount of cr#p I am getting through my door about GDPR, I’d say Royal Mail are going to have a good couple of months on letters!

II Editor 03 Jun 2018

NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 4/06/2018 " THE FTSE, and talk of GOLD too. (FTSE:UKX) We do not often discuss GOLD in our headline section, other than the odd Big Picture update due to the price doing something stupid or confusing. Well guess what, it's proving stupid, confusing, and ..."[link]

onewayticket 25 May 2018

Bought for my income portfolio. I think there are a few playing games with the share price to increase the appeal of what will still be a very healthy dividend for any income portfolio. The last RMG update also mentioned progressive dividend which displays confidence. I've decided to pick up some up on the present weakness for that very purpose and to add to an income portfolio.Whereas I appreciate that RMG trade in many countries most of the goods that I order online is being delivered to my door by Royal Mail and the parcels division is faring well. This online trend seems to be behind high street store closures and looks set to continue as Marks and Spencers only in the last few days have become the most recent announcee of store closures over the next few years.Will add the same again on any consequent 10% falls."The Board is recommending a final dividend of 16.3 pence per ordinary share, payable on 31 August 2018 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 27 July 2018, subject to shareholder approval at the AGM on 19 July 2018. This gives a total dividend for the year of 24.0 pence."Own due diligence


JPMorgan Cazenove downgraded (Sharecast News) - JPMorgan Cazenove downgraded Royal Mail to 'neutral' from 'overweight' due to the recent re-rating in the share price, the lack of positive catalysts ahead and a more operationally challenging period.JPM, which upped its price target on the stock to 561p from 530p, said the revenue outlook for the company is broadly unchanged, with UKPIL revenue likely to remain around flat over time.It expects a stronger parcels environment - possibly due to temporary Amazon trends - to broadly offset a weaker letters market. In addition, it argued that incremental parcel revenue growth has a higher variable cost component, such that its ability to fall-through to profitability is more limited.As far as the cost outlook is concerned, JPM expects the rate of per-hour wage inflation at UKPIL to accelerate from 2.5% in FY18 to around 4.5% in the medium term. UKPIL cost inflation, meanwhile, is expected to accelerate by around 1% as a result of this, requiring approximately £70m of additional annual cost avoidance to hold profits flat over time."Combined with the revenue outlook...we believe this is likely to put downward pressure on profitability over the medium term," it said.JPM said that on its forecasts, Royal Mail trades on a free cash flow yield of about 7%, which is a similar level to peers.


Bigger push needed at Royal Mail, says Liberum Royal Mail (RMG) management is pushing for more productivity but Liberum believes more is needed to stop it missing target like last year.Analyst Gerald Khoo retained his ‘sell’ recommendation with a target price of 450p on the shares, which fell 6.1% to 561.4p yesterday.Full-year results were at the top end of the range, driven by better-than-expected performance in the parcels division and strong growth in its logistics arm.‘A mixed outlook has uncertain implications for consensus estimates,’ said Khoo. ‘Management expects parcels volume and revenue growth to at least match the previous year, but there is clear caution on letters, where the volume decline is seen at the worse end of the long-term range, with downside risk if business uncertainty persists.’He added that although ‘management is aiming at the upper end of its productivity improvement range’ after missing last year ‘we believe more is needed’.[link]