This is relentless You have to ask yourselves how low this could go? Saudi cutting supplies to the States through December and January won’t help as they are not cutting production until January and the cuts are based, once again, on their ramped up levels to accommodate the void left by Iran. The world is still awash with oil. Could we see the 50’s here tomorrow? To coin a phrase, you couldn’t rule it out, evening Cocka, I must have another anniversary due soon sweet cheeks, lol. Hats off, once again, to AHL, a perfect trade.
Mexico That site is a den of iniquity, I’m surprised it hasn’t been closed down by the FCA. Back to PMO, since the trading update this has dropped from 93.7p down to 65p, a staggering 30% with Brent only dropping 11%, including the drop after today’s close. In comparison EnQuest has only dropped 13% despite their overly complex finance arrangements and the recently added additional shares. The reason? Lack of reduction in debt despite the oil price being substantially higher than the company anticipated this year. Why has the company not hit the upper end of the debt reduction forecast? One reason is the slow ramp up of Catcher and therein lies the mistrust. The board portrayed all was well with Catcher and dare I say even implied it was operating over and above expectations, that is until the 15th of November. The problem is this is not the first time the company has released cleverly worded updates that imply something that isn’t actually true but is factually correct. I fear the lack of debt pay down through sales of oil and gas despite higher oil prices than the company envisaged was the straw that broke the camel’s back and the market has no trust in the current management to deliver on its promises. And to be rumoured to be looking at spending more cash, cash they haven’t got, on acquiring assets has not gone down well with the market. Can they tap the shareholders up for a few bob? Good luck tomorrow.
Mexico I read ( without contributing) the lse board and many are calling for TD to be replaced for three principal reasons: 1 Many consider the refinancing was achieved at too high a cost going forward and we all know how the bond holders screwed the PMO share price in the first 9 months of 2018. 2 The plan for 2018 and 2019 is to substantially reduce debt. Assets have been sold, Catcher has been delivering at impressive volumes, and the oil price reached 85 dollars (Averaging over 70 dollars for many months). 3 No plan to provide dividends/value to shareholders. Debt will be down by 300/400m dollars at best, and now oil is back at 60 dollars. Tolmount has been sanctioned, Zama is currently being appraised and a decision will be made on SL in 2019. As if this not enough for TD to work with he has now expressed an interest in Cheverons North Sea assets rumoured to cost 2bn. TD is extremely well paid and if he drives PMO to the wall he will be ok. He’s feeding his ego at shareholders expense.
Mexico Probably around $250m of FCF at current prices, assuming CAPEX/ABEX at $320m and tax of about $120m. The sale of the Zama/Mexican assets could net $400m so we still have options if oil prices stay in this bracket for a while. I’ve added and averaged up today, would think we’ll test the 2018 highs at some point in 2019.
Mexico The mood has followed the price down, sale prices generally not seen as such. On your figs we still have daily fed of 1.9m usd. Not too shabby…,
Mexico I’d say more $24pb when you take into account the mix of Oil and Gas, Diesel. Not sure what they’re saying on the other board, it moves far too quickly for me to keep up. What’s the general feeling over there?
Mexico Am I missing something, over on the red channel TD is taking a lot of flak, as I see it after direct costs & financing costs usd, PMO are clearing usd40 a barrel (18 + 6 finance) -64 hedged/spot price. On a realistic 80k production FCF before ongoing operational costs is a daily usd 3.2m . Not too shabby particularly when you convert into sterling. I’m no accountant, but hopefully I can see the wood from the trees…
Mexico Definitely buyers out there, I certainly hope Premier’s plan is to appraise and monetise our stake in Zama. The concerns over debt covenants and being at the mercy of the shorters is becoming rather tiresome.
Mexico I noticed an article on Bloomberg earlier today reporting that Quatar is buying Mexican oil assets from ENI. Maybe they will come after Premiers Zama interests once it’s fully appraised. The article does at least confirm there is a market out there for the Mexican finds.
RNS Update Targeted volumes were 98m barrels - www.premier-oil.com/sites/default/files/presentation/catcher-foil-brochure-final.pdf (pg 6) 2018 Production = 16m barrels (best guess) 2019 Production = 24m barrels (66kboepd) 40m barrels of production over the two years so roughly 40% depleted by the end of 2019 based on the original estimates. I would expect a reasonable upgrade at the end of year results with planning for the satellites to commence in 2019. Its a small collection of fields and the decline rates will be steep when it drops off plateau. Enquest’s Kraken is the same, that will likely end up being in decline before ever reaching nameplate capacity with the problems that its had. Judging by the latest investor presentation, Catcher decline rates will be become apparent in 2021, but will be replaced in volumes (not value) by Tolmount coming online. P.S. Sorry for the late reply, Christmas and a busy end to the year at work is ensuring I don’t get much time to watch my stocks, which considering all they do is go down, is probably a blessing. ATB.
A hostile takeover RSN today showing Goldman Sachs buying a stake of over 5pc. Is something afoot
Chevron NS Assets Mike, Talos have recently had their credit facility extended during the latest periodic review, the director’s have form for creating shareholder value through mergers, acquisitions and eventually selling the grown business. Hilarious post by the way, intentional or not. [link]
Chevron NS Assets Mike, I’m sure the lender’s will block any such attempt, unless of course it is funded without increasing debt? Don’t spend too much at Christmas and have your wallets ready to bolster big Tones’ ego in the new year?
Chevron NS Assets Completely crazy. In my view the board should be concentrating on managing what they have got. Like many on here and other discussion boards, when oil went above 80 dollars I was expecting a really meaningful reduction in debt, with future production significantly hedged for 2019. With Brent struggling to maintain 60 dollars further acquisitions should be the last thing on the agenda. Hopefully their lenders will block any such attempts.
Chevron NS Assets Reported that PMO are interested in Chevrons NS assets.