Premier Oil Live Discussion

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gk10 19 Oct 2018

Brent crude now back over $80. Iran and Saudi concerns weigh no doubt. If the USA fall out Carrot, Do you believe the US will fall out with the Saudis over them, allegedly, killing a single US based Saudi national journalist? Should they not fall out with them over their brutality and general disregard for human rights, they still behead people with a sword? What sanctions could the US impose on them? Would Trump place a tariff on their oil? Have a look at the below link to see that although SA is not the Yanks biggest trade partner they are, allowing for today’s oil price, a relatively neutral trade partner. The Iran sanctions, with only a week or so to go, have had little impact on the availability of oil for those importing it, just today it was reported that OPEC are warning of lower oil prices due to the global production, mainly from the US. A close of $80 tonight, bang on the psychological level? Heads or tails! Shorts up again, they must be linked to the convertible bonds? Oh wait a minute…………………… Have a good weekend. [link]

Cockadoodledo 19 Oct 2018

Brent crude now back over $80. Iran and Saudi concerns weigh no doubt. If the USA fall out For long term holders it’s always good to see where we were one year ago and where we might be this time next year. I don’t know if I’ve ever mentioned this before (forgive me if I have) but there is a poster on this board called GK10 who used to post on LSE under the name Andy P. He was banned from LSE after a string of deramping posts but his deramps continue on here. Yes, of course, ignore him but if you are new to this board and are a new investor in PMO then it’s useful to know what this poster has said in the past and how accurate he has been. One year ago today, over on LSE, Andy P (now GK10 here) posted the following. Decide for yourself how accurate he was with his thoughts and predictions: " Oil recently broke $59 yet all this could muster was a little over 68p despite the Zama discovery, two disposals, the refinancing being completed, Catcher sail away being on time, the North Sea arrival ahead of schedule, better than expected flow rates from the wells and the Cats safe arrival at the field. Who believes oil will be over $60 for a sustained period in the next six months? So why would anyone consider investing in PMO? Net debt will have gone up due to the staggering costs associated with the drawn out refinancing and this should be reported in the November trading update. As yet the company hasn’t announced a date for shareholders to approve the Wytch farm sale due to complete by year end, why? Reported shorts are still close to recent highs, volume is at a record low and there are still a shed load of warrants outstanding. Any mention of the dilution associated with the convertible bonds is premature but will weigh on the price when they come into play. So I will repeat, why would anyone consider investing in PMO?" In answer to that final question Andy Pee, I guess the reason it was worth investing 12 months ago was that within a year you would double your money like many of us have - and more! You obviously missed out on that though. Bad luck sausage. Please be very careful who you believe on forums. You sometimes get former employees of companies who have been sacked coming on here and posting doom upon doom because they cannot accept what happened to them a few years back and have an urge to get back at the business they once worked for. They need to move on and they need to be shown up for who they are: inaccurate, ill-informed and ill-willed. Playing hockey over the weekend GK10? You’re a goalkeeper aren’t you, hence the ‘GK’ in your name. You were probably chosen for that position because you can’t score goals and scoring goals is of course the only way to ever win. Sorry you’ve continually missed out on PMO’s recent success. Sorry you haven’t won. Will it hit £2? You couldn’t rule it out could you?

Emerald_Carrots 19 Oct 2018

Brent crude now back over $80. Iran and Saudi concerns weigh no doubt. If the USA fall out big time with Saudi and the Iran sanctions have not fully affected the market yet who knows what price Brent crude? $100 plus again maybe? All IMHO.

Emerald_Carrots 19 Oct 2018

Brent crude up to $79.90. WE now have Saudi and Iran to be worried about Doh!!!

Ripley94 18 Oct 2018

Brent crude back over $74 again. Is $74.24 as I type this SOCO… XXXX Not sure i ever looked at SOCO before… Gary Newman and share Prophets are ramping it. ( Five Free today ) risk grade 209. 6% yield .

gk10 17 Oct 2018

Premier oil + all oil producers. Disappearing journalist. How in the World is Trump and the West Mike, It’s best to ignore the API numbers and instead look at the EIA numbers. With the GoM outage resulting in domestic production adding significantly less to the stocks and the draw down on the SPR inventories today’s build is a concern. Let’s hope the trading update is positive but you have to ask yourself how much of the planned Capex that was supposedly loaded to H1 and not spent will have been spent in Q3, don’t you? The missing journalist is just headlines, the same as the two Russian tourists who came over here to visit Salisbury Cathedral. You do know the Saudis still carry out executions by beheading the “guilty” with a sword, human rights takes on a whole new meaning over there. Are the US any better with Guantanamo? Probably. The Saudis and the Russians, if guilty, have sent out a strong message, we and the US are a little more discrete. On a separate note, Brexit and the Northern Ireland border, do the fools in Europe know the percentage of gas Ireland imports from the UK ? A no deal Brexit, if fully imposed, will make the potato famine look like a walk in the park.

Mikeclayton2 17 Oct 2018

Premier oil + all oil producers. Disappearing journalist. How in the World is Trump and the West These reported oil deficits/surpluses are a bit of a joke. Last night it was 2m deficit today it’s a 6m surplus. GofM closed due to hurricane, it’s difficult to know what to believe. Reading the lse board holders are beginning to doubt the coming trading update. With Brent having been above (baring tonight) 80 dollars for almost 3 weeks I’m confident the TU will be positive, hoping for some more hedging at higher prices and maybe a decent update on Zama. The missing journalist story is not yet over and Iranian sanctions are just around the corner.

gk10 17 Oct 2018

Shorts on the up again Good to see AHL have rejoined the declared over 0.5% club. They have done very well out of PMO and other similar sized oil companies in the past. It would seem, from what they have reported, that they left 0.48% of old money on the table from theIr earlier position that they started building in November 2014. They have just closed the 0.5 reporting threshold but it’s worth remembering that is 0.5% in new money (increased shares in issue). THE EIA report showed another 1m+ barrels were released from the SPR again last week, only another 9m or so to go now! US production was down, possibly due to the shut down in the GoM? Will $80 hold tonight? Good luck tomorrow.

Contrariwise 17 Oct 2018

Premier oil + all oil producers. Disappearing journalist. How in the World is Trump and the West Wishful thinking. I expect an efficient carpet sweeping operation.

Emerald_Carrots 17 Oct 2018

Premier oil + all oil producers. Disappearing journalist. How in the World is Trump and the West going to sweep this mess under the carpet??? It’s like having an elephant on your carpet. I suspect this is going to explode into an international outrage that will see the oil price over $100. All IMHO.

dbatey22 17 Oct 2018

Yet another GK10 anniversary Perhaps it is time to leave this personal feud aside. We won’t have any interesting debate on here if the only posts are personal attacks. Let’s get back to talk about Premier. D

Cockadoodledo 16 Oct 2018

Yet another GK10 anniversary Morning GK10. What a busy month of anniversaries it’s been for you. As you know, you were a famed deramper on LSE back in the day who went by the name of Andy P. You were then banned by LSE. You now post here as GK10 and all your posts have that same negative, sneering, deramping theme. Good for you! Better your anger towards PMO is out rather than in eh? You still in the O&G game after they let you go? Anyway, I kept all of your posts which means it’s great for us to look back one year on to see how your deramping worked out. One year ago today PMO’s SP was 64p. It hadn’t been a great day for PMO with a fall in the SP so you popped onto LSE at 627pm and posted this now classic GK10 post: “What on earth happened here today? The effects of the potential dilution becoming more and more apparent with every oil price rise? Or the market fearing more missed targets by the company? 70p looks like a distant dream”. Funny eh Andy? Everyone on LSE will remember you posting that ‘distant dream’ prediction. In many respects, with the SP were it is now, your 70p prediction was correct but at the time of course PMO’s SP was 64p and you were convinced it was going lower. Indeed, on 30th August 2017 you had posted “The 40’s will be seen here very soon”, but that didn’t happen either did it? I’m off to bake a cake now to celebrate this splendid anniversary. Hope you have a great day at work. Christmas starting to hove into view now so you’ll be able to look forward to a few extra days off after a busy year. SEGRO still on a downward trend I see. Did you get out in time? Best of luck sweetcheeks.

Beatley 13 Oct 2018

2019 Hedging Despite the recent drop in prices the futures curve is still very strong, especially when we consider our realised oil price in H1 was just $61.6. Given the importance of debt reduction I personally would have hedged the majority of next years production during the recent spike, so it’ll be interesting to see if there’s any increases in the Q3 update. On Q3 debt reduction should be over $100m and will drop further still in this quarter when the assets sales are included. 2019 looks better still, with maybe $500m of free cash flow at these prices. Add in a successful appraisal of Zama and we could see some healthy debt reduction whilst also substantially increasing reserves. In this scenario Barclays 180p target looks achievable to me. image.png721x885 24.7 KB

Beatley 13 Oct 2018

EIA weekly status report You do make me chuckle, GK10. I absolutely love the ‘yes my original post was factually incorrect, but here’s some hard hitting bearish headlines and opinions to make up for it’. The question that crosses my mind is why you bother?! It just seems a pointless waste of time if you’re not invested long or short. Anyways, I would debate your points but it is just pointless. The fact you’ve been posting the same content since oil was $50 and premier was 60p is utterly ridiculous. Maybe it’s time to take a step back and find something else to fill your time.

gk10 12 Oct 2018

EIA weekly status report LoS, “Likely be accompanied by higher prices” Higher prices? Have you read the full report or just the highlights? Higher prices read in the correct context along with their price forecast takes on a completely different meaning. I love the comment “Brent crude oil is now established over $80/bbl”, good job they didn’t say firmly established. What a difference a few hours can make! Have a good weekend.