Re: Overreaction? Could not agree more. Reinforces the fact that the market has already rebalanced and US shale cannot fill the gap, either in volume or more so in quality for cleaner fuels. There may be more of a political US and Saudi vs Iran agenda to try and keep the lid on PoO for US trade.Saudi's will not want to see any material drop, (Aramco listing). And Russia need all the profit they can get. My view is short term correction, and I'm sitting on my hands. Still very bullish.
Overreaction? Youve got to love the markets, oil drops to a level where a company is still making bucket loads of cash and the price drops nearly 20%, unbelievable really, but I guess itd be boring if the markets remained logical.Perversely, Im glad weve had a dip, $80 oil is too much too fast in my very humble opinion. Its great to see the share price zoom up as prices are rising, but given the noises coming out of countries like India where demand growth is key, I do think price has got ahead of itself and OPEC are right to start considering adding additional supply. Personally, I think anywhere between $65-$75 is probably the right level, but Im sure the Saudis and Russia have their own views as to what price starts impacting on global demand. No GK10, OPEC will not return to a market share strategy, your question is utterly farcical. OPEC hasnt gone through a number of years of pain just to flood the market again. In fact, I cant think of anything more bullish than OPEC having to increase production just to keep a lid on prices, especially after weve been fed shale this, shale that over the last couple of years.Its also worth noting to the naysayers that even though weve had a decent tumble, the forward curve is still above $70 for all of 2019, a price where Premier will make around $700m of free cash-flow next year. Add in the potential for a full/part sale of Zama and you can see why Premiers equity could significantly increase over the next 18 months. Anyways, I remain bullish, and will be adding to my holdings if the share price continues to puke on what I think is quite a healthy correction. I will be disappointed if we miss out on the FTSE250 this time around, but then theres always next time.
Premier ftse 250 Last I recall was poo ranked 319 out of 350. Falls since then but this article suggests that retailers out pmo in. If we miss out it will be narrowly. Tuesday cob Will be key.See [link]
Re: Article in FT. Brent and OPEC meeting Source [link]
Article in FT. Brent and OPEC meeting May 26, 2018 30 am by David Sheppard, Energy Markets EditorOpec and Russia are in discussions with a view to raising oil production by up to 1m barrels a day as they move to cool concerns that crude prices have risen too fast.Here are the key points to watch ahead of their meeting in Vienna next month where the plans will probably be formalised.Why are they talking about raising output now?The jump in oil prices to above $80 a barrel this month was driven by two key events: sharp production falls in Opec member Venezuela, where an economic and political crisis has hammered state oil company PDVSA, and the prospect of renewed US sanctions on Iran the third largest Opec producer which added to fears the oil market was rapidly tightening.So while Opec and Russia have been working together since the start of 2017 to reduce oil supplies to end the glut that had depressed prices for the previous three years, output has now fallen far further than they initially intended.The price rise was good for the bottom line of leading oil producers, but it has drawn an angry response from US President Donald Trump, with Americans facing higher prices at the pumps (though the countrys shale producers were less concerned).Opec kingpin Saudi Arabia, while wanting strong prices to fund its ambitious economic and social reform programmes, is unlikely to want to anger Washington especially when the US is targeting Iran, Riyadhs biggest rival, after withdrawing from the nuclear deal.How far are they likely to increase supplies?For oil traders, this is the million (possibly billion) dollar question. The details of production increases are likely to be thrashed out between now and June 22, the next official meeting between Opec ministers and the broader Russian-led coalition that has signed up to the output deal since late 2016.On Friday, people familiar with the discussions between Saudi Arabia and Russia said a figure of up to 1m barrels per day had been floated. But it is possible that the final number comes in lower.Both Alexander Novak, Russias energy minister, and his Saudi counterpart, Khalid al Falih, said that all options were on the table and that any increase would be gradual. That is a clear sign that while they may wish to cool prices they do not want to trigger an aggressive sell-off.Energy Aspects, a consultancy, estimated that the increase would be between 300,000 and 1m b/d, depending on whether they target country specific levels or group-wide targets.They could ask members to bring output more closely in line with their original targets, in which case the increase would be at the lower end of the range as members such as Venezuela would be unable to respond.The other option is for countries with spare capacity to fill the gap left by falling output in some members, which would lead to an increase closer to the upper end of the range.Nothing has been decided yet . . . this is not a discussion about exiting the co-operation agreement. Rather, it is about fine-tuning supply, said Amrita Sen at Energy Aspects.How much spare capacity is there?It is one thing saying you want to raise production but a key question is just how much extra firepower Opec members and their allies have.Bullish traders are warning that by raising output in the second half of the year, Opec and Russia could cut into their spare capacity before the market desperately needs it.That could actually turn out to be bullish for prices if traders become spooked that there was little left in reserve should another supply disruption take place.The International Energy Agency said that as of March, Opec had 3.4m b/d of spare production capacity, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 64 per cent of the total, suggesting there is some breathing room.But many traders think this number is far lower when calculated as output that countries can comfortably maintain with
Re: Summary Disorder,I suggested on Wednesday that OPEC and their partners (Russia) might look at redistributing the lost production from Venezuela and potentially the lost supply from Iran, was that me getting lucky again?What do you make of WTI falling harder than Brent today?4.6% compared to 3.3%, widening the gap even further, does the market think OPEC are moving back, to a degree, of market share rather than price?The crude oil speculative net positions dropped again this week for the 5th consecutive week.OnedB suggested the build this week was due to imports, that is not true.Last week net imports of crude oil were 5.823m compared to 5.755m the previous week, the corresponding period last year showed net imports of 7.457m.Net imports of petroleum products stood at -2.451m compared to -2.870m the previous week and -2.511m this time last year.That gives a net position of 3.372m last week, 2.885m the previous week and 4.946m a year ago.He also suggested US production was stalling, again not true.It leveled out last week with a slight increase but again the rig count was up this week.The pipelines are running close to capacity but more containment will come online soon to allow the expected increase in production from the recently added rigs, up by 117 since the start of the year.That's enough from me, a couple of days away in Spain for me and the family, catch you all Tuesday.
Re: Summary There are 2 directions.Up, and down.You got lucky with your guess of "DOWN"NOTHING MORE, NOTHING LESSPMO will finish the year north of £2.00 With relative ease.I will not trade it, i also will not sell.I have looked at and evaluated pmo fortunes and prospects.I am down to circa 80% up on pmo...I care less than cfd traders and spread betters as i own my stock.If its 100, or 200% higher by year end i will consider that a good investment.Are you working shifts at present gk?(I will not make comment about you being so sucesful with stocks i expected you to not work)
Re: Summary Disorder,Like I said, it wasn't very encouraging was it?Have a good long weekend all and those locked in I hope the oil price picks up on Monday, It's only us Brits, the yanks and I think the Greeks who aren't open for business on Monday.
Re: Funny old game HiThis is where it seems strange, I am still positive about PMO but I now am brutal with complying with my own stop losses. Capital preservation is top priority and booking 40 to 50p gains on leverage is not bad .....but when the trend goes against you I now always get Out.I strongly believe PMO will be at a substantially higher price in 6 months time but given the loss of support in oil companies I wanted to take profits.With shares unless there is a one time change, there is always another entry point in the future.
Malcys blog oil price 80 usd suits consumers and producers Oil priceThe big question now is, have we reached a level at which most industry participants find acceptable? At $80 it seems that talks between producers are scheduled to see if they shouldnt release a bit of crude into the market to avoid any panic from consumers, as evidenced by the Indian pleas last week. Certainly it seems that the KSA and Russia are talking with an idea of scaling back the cuts from the joint producers. Khalid Al-Falih said this morning that these were on the table and that whilst no decision had been made yet we will not overcorrect and that the two countries would meet at least twice before the full Opec/Non-Opec meeting next month.It is a good time to be thinking about the effect $80 oil will have on the consumer particularly in the US where the Memorial Day Holiday on Monday signals the start of the driving season. For what its worth my guess is that if it does turn out to be that $80 is a level to be defended then it pretty much works for both sides, lets see.Geopolitics heated up a bit overnight with the news that the Trump/Kim summit is off, at least for the time being, no reason why it cant be reinstated another time though although tensions are still high.
Brent now $8.50 more than WTI. I have read this is a sign the oil market is tight! So why has oil tanked today? $8.50 gap does seem odd as back end last year it was around $5.
Barclays upgrade 145p rec A week is a long time in politics...and markets!![link]
Sell in May... ...as they say...Buy again on St. Ledger's day!
Re: 107p crucial for longs Elena. Funny you were convinced of a stratospheric rise a few days ago
Funny old game Most of those shouting the loudest about pmo's sp potential have either sold or been stopped out.I'd imagine everyone will pile back in next week..when eia data revealed. Malcys blog reminded us that memorial day skewers the weekly data due to start of driving season