Premier Oil Live Discussion

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Beatley 16 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? gk10: Plenty of gas on here, lol, a good week for you lot. Mainly from your global macro blah blah blah posts Why don’t you tell me GK10 and get to your point without going around the houses? Enquest’s woes aren’t due to the rights issue! Magnus is outperforming, driving production growth and cash flow generation, god knows where they’d be without it. Just a thought, but with your keen interest in Enquest why not direct your macro posts there, or even better still try Ithaca’s, I doubt anyone uses that one since the recent acquisition by Delek, lol.

gk10 15 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? “Hi Diesel, you need to take into account the mix of Oil and Gas that we produce. Current UK gas prices are about 46p per therm, so about $26 per barrel of oil equivalent, not sure about the Gas we produce elsewhere” Plenty of gas on here, lol, a good week for you lot. Beatley, fantastic numbers on Toulmont, remind me again how much the company will be paying their partners per barrel of oil equivalent? Odd you didn’t feel the need to mention the more recent EnQuest rights issue and their current price given you were involved in it? The eon acquisition wasn’t “recent”. Diesel, What bonds are left to convert? Any warrants exercised will likely add to the balance sheet given they will most probably, at the current share price, be converted for cash so the minimal dilution will be more than offset by the cash received. Lots of sense, Thank you. Have a good weekend.

Beatley 15 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? You only get diluted if you don’t buy your rights, but you do have some fair points Diesel, maybe Zama at $400m would be a good swap for some North Sea assets without raising cash from shareholders. That said, I doubt Tullow’s holders are regretting buying their rights at £1.30 per share, current price £2.30 and now comes with divi. ATB.

Diesel 15 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? Regardless of the merits of a chevron deal, withstanding the tax credits, not sure it will go down well with shareholders, that have been diluted only already recently & facing ongoing dilution as bonds convert & warrants exercised. Surely if a deal stacks up it can be done without tapping shareholders, which I think often smacks of desperation. In the medium term assuming no disasters I can see pmo storming past last years sp highs. All good fun & lots of hopefully good news bubbling away in the background.

Beatley 15 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? The announcement about a potential North Sea acquisition was certainly ill timed, or perfectly timed if you were short and the price was getting away from you, but it does make a lot of sense with the $4bln in tax credits that we could burn through with some additional production. My own expectation is that we will make a UK acquisition this year, with the funds coming from the sale of Zama and a rights issue, so I’m planning accordingly. That probably won’t go down with some people, but the recent EoN acquisition was incredible value. It isn’t talked about a lot, but at 60p a therm the net cash flows from Tolmount alone are over a billion dollars, this is before any upside from the exploration of Tolmount Far East. To put this into perspective, Tolmount came with the EoN assets that we bought for just $120m! Now I don’t think that will be repeated, but with say $600m to splurge on producing assets Premier could pick up something that has maybe a NPV of 3x the purchase price when the tax credits are taken into account, which would make the current equity valuation look ludicrously cheap.

Diesel 15 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? So is slowly building, surely TD needs to kick it in the crackers by bringing up Chevron… again…if he does surely it would need to be an eon type deal to get a positive response. On a positive note oil, price continues breaking higher, hope it gets back to the 70-75 price band & Pmo should get pulled up by its coattails.

Beatley 15 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? Maybe we’re the fools for replying to his thread and entertaining him in the first place, especially as his only calls are negative macro ones and nothing to do with PMO’s fundementals. Will refrain in future.

Diesel 14 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? Lots, I agree with your sentiments. I’m always open to opposing opinions & also find unfounded optimism grating, but the relentless drip of biased negativity from GK is dull to say the least. To be honest I can’t be bothered to indulge him by reading his posts,. I wonder what happened to last call, unfortunately for me as a turkey his call was bang on but worth the entertainment value

lots_of_sense 14 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? Perhaps another small positive is that Whitebox Advisors added an additional 0.3% short last Friday and are already down over 10%. Win some, lose some !

lots_of_sense 14 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? I just got bored of posting mainly due to GK who would lead us to believe is neither long nor short or has no personal vendetta but nevertheless used to fill his days posting the same old bearish and/or negative stories about Oil and specifically about Premier. For someone to take so much time posting on a stock they are not interested in either buying or selling just doesn’t tally with me. Equally, for me no point repeating things that previously posted. Anyway, oil looking a bit better after the Q4 collapse but cannot say the same about gas. You win some, you lose some.

Diesel 14 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? Gk, fella you are so predictable. I gave my sources, which as you know are from jan update & more recent rns. Jan production running at 90k bopd, so if you do the Calc you will get the same fcf as I posted. Either way as you surprisingly pointed out oil price is in a higher range. (With your usual caveat).

gk10 13 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? Diesel, When you state production at 90k was would be more appropriate than is, full year guidance is 75k but I guess you know that. Don’t you just love the phrase “free cash flow”? Does that figure include servicing the debt? That brings me on to the next point, will the debt suddenly disappear if the company is taken over? No, I didn’t think so. Maybe you should avoid such broad brush calculations before posting next time. On a more positive note, Brent has closed above the recent range, will it hold though? I’ll be watching closely in the morning. Good luck all, you deserve it.

Diesel 13 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? Broad brush calculation, but the results are clear

Beatley 13 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? Hi Diesel, you need to take into account the mix of Oil and Gas that we produce. Current UK gas prices are about 46p per therm, so about $26 per barrel of oil equivalent, not sure about the Gas we produce elsewhere.

Diesel 13 Feb 2019

Has everyone sold out? Easy calc Beatley. From jan update we know that fcf point is usd45 a barrel. From Jan rns we know that pmo production is 90k bopd. We also know that 30% production is hedged at usd69. So assuming average sp is usd65, fcf is 20usd a barrel x 90,000= 1.8m usd fcf ! With pmo Mkt cap at 600m gbp, within 18 months current cash flow would buy the business. Fancy getting a whip round going ?

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