skeaman
29 May 2015
Re: Xi Jinping visit I am back in now at 1.92p, so roll on production and lets start getting the coal out of the ground. This is definitely a lock up and leave. I admire the boards tenacity, many others would have thrown in the towel at this stage but they have crossed each hurdle that has been placed in front of them which gives me confidence that they will see this project through to make it a profitable business.
WingCommander2
28 May 2015
Re: Xi Jinping visit skeaman,I have no idea, I cannot give you a figure of what I think it will be worth. But I can tell you personally I see this as a multi bagger, even at the price you bought at. I have invested because I think this a long term investment, its not going to be a rapid return one, but one for your pension. Pakistan has huge energy demands (Pakistani economists reckon lack of energy has knocked 2% off GDP growth), as India also grows its demands of energy are also set to grow. The hard part is getting it out of the ground and into a power station, part of the that risk has been taken on by the Pakistan and Chinese Governments by the backing they have given this coalfield at state level by including it in the Pakistan China Economic Corridor. When they are producing there will be a spurt of production from the different blocks, and Oracle will be able to join in the opportunity. There is gold in that desert, and most western investors have not yet fully realized it as they have a misconception of Pakistan as a risk factor. Read Jim O'Neill's report on the Next 11 developing nations, Pakistan is on the list.
skeaman
27 May 2015
Re: Xi Jinping visit Wing Commander 2, what do you anticipate the current bull run on this share to level out at? Do you think that we could be looking at 5p within the next 6 months. I have a long way to go to break even, I am in at 9p from a few years ago. I am going to average down this week and stick with this share for the long term. My dream is that it will go back to issue price of 14p but that may be very wishful thinking.
WingCommander2
22 Apr 2015
Xi Jinping visit [link] us remember the Oracle coal mine is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.Is China-Pakistan 'silk road' a game-changer?China has announced a $46bn investment plan which will largely centre on an economic corridor from Gwadar in Pakistan to Kashgar in the Chinese region of Xinjiang. The BBC's M Ilyas Khan looks at the significance of the plans.Why has this got people talking?Chinese President Xi Jinping, center right, accompanied by Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, center left, takes a carriage to meet with Pakistani President Mamnoon Hussain in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 21, 2015. (Pakistan describes its friendship with China as "higher than the Himalayas"The money China is planning to pour into Pakistan is more than twice the amount of all foreign direct investment (FDI) Pakistan has received since 2008, and considerably more than the entire assistance from the United States, Pakistan's largest donor until now, since 2002.Pakistani officials say most projects will reach completion in between one and three years, although some infrastructure projects could take from 10 to 15 years. So the investment is not going to be spread too thin over a longer period of time, as happened with the US assistance.Also, this investment will be heavily concentrated in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a combination of transport and energy projects and the development of a major deep-sea port offering direct access to the Indian Ocean and beyond.mapExperts say this will create jobs and spark economic activity in Pakistan which over the last three decades has become a cranky, rent-seeking military power torn by armed insurgencies and a failing system of service delivery.But as defence analyst Professor Hasan Askari Rizvi warns, the real game changer is not the signing of deals, but their timely execution.But what about all the militants?The economic corridor starts at Gwadar and ends at Kashgar.Gwadar is located on the Arabian Sea coast of Balochistan, a province in south-west Pakistan which is wracked by a decade-old separatist insurgency.File photo of Pakistani paramilitary soldier patrolling under-construction sea-port at GwadarConstruction at Gwadar began more than a decade agoKashgar is located at the centre of China's only Muslim-majority, Turkic-speaking Xinjiang region. It is populated mainly by ethnic Uighur Muslims, and has been home to a separatist movement since the mid-1990s. There has been a recent upsurge in violence which China blames on separatist "terrorists".Between Gwadar and Kashgar, the corridor passes through areas that are within striking range of Pakistan's Taliban insurgents. Until recently they controlled territory along Pakistan's north-western border with Afghanistan, and hosted the largest concentration of Uighur militants outside China. They still have a presence in the border region, though their sanctuaries have been disrupted by a Pakistani military operation that began last June.Both Uighur and Pakistani Taliban militants have been targeting Chinese nationals in Pakistan. The Baloch insurgents have their roots in socialist ideology, but they too dismiss the Chinese as allies of Punjab, Pakistan's most populous province which they accuse of "robbing" Balochistan's resources.A Bugti militiaman emerges from an underground bunker after a mortar attack on January 25, 2006 on Dera Bugti in the Pakistani province of Balochistan.The super highway will originate in Pakistan's restive Balochistan regionA former diplomat, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, said in a TV debate that the Pakistani army has decided to raise a special force to safeguard this 3,000km corridor.Many are sceptical because the army previously failed to ensure a trouble-free supply to Nato troops in Afghanistan.But some believe the military is likely to treat the Chinese corridor differently because the economic benefits accruing from i
WingCommander2
01 Apr 2015
more potential customers for Thar Coal [link] power producers keen to import Thar coal World’s seventh largest reserves Munawar HasanWednesday, April 01, 2015 KARACHI: The Thar fields have attracted attention from the country’s arch-rival as several independent power producers in neighboring India have shown their keen interest in buying coal from the newly discovered world’s seventh largest reserves in Sindh, official sources said. “Top management of several Indian independent power producers has formally expressed their keenness to procure Thar coal, which is technically feasible for utilizing in some of their existing plants and also ready to set up new plants,” a source in provincial Sindh government said. “(They) have shown keen interest in its import from Pakistan mainly due to the proximity.” Coal-fired plants contribute over 65 per cent in power generation in India and high demand of this primary fuel is increasing day by day. Despite having domestic coal reserves, Indian imports of coal have seen tremendous increase in last ten years, ranking neighboring country among top three importers. Ahmadabad, the capital city of Gujarat is closer to Thar coal reserves. There are scores of medium to ultra-mega coal-fired power plants operational in Gujarat state that supplies power to large swath of their country up to Punjab state in addition to other such plants in pipeline. Being a leading miner and user of coal in the world, Indian energy entities conveyed their readiness to mine and import coal from Thar field. Thought Indian companies are not yet allowed to mine in the Thar but options are still open for exporting coal from Pakistan. Insiders said strained relation between two countries has been one of the main hurdles in establishing trade ties in the field of energy. Sources said a series of meetings in this connection were also held during visit of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to India in May 2014, while parleys held with federal ministries and management of mining companies currently working at Thar coal. “Representatives of these companies also showed willingness to visit Thar coal, however, this visit is yet to be given green signal by Pakistan authorities,” a source said. Referring to scale of coal mining and prospects of its future uses, Chaudhary Abdul Qayyum, CEO Sino Sindh Resources Ltd said coal production from Thar is planned to reach about 10 million tons per annum (mtpa) in three years and 25-30 mtpa in as little as five years, which will be sufficient to meet requirements of both mine-mouth power plants in Block-I and Block-II and other planned power projects in Karachi and Hyderabad. “In the post-2020 period or next five to seven years, we are expecting doubling of coal production from 25-30 mtpa to 50-60 mtpa. Half of this annually produced coal, having approximate export value of one billion dollar, could be offered for export markets including India,” he said while talking to a select group of Lahore-based journalists about promising development of Thar coal. Qayyum said as drying process for Thar coal is developed with initiation of large-scale mining to make it more economical for transportation, Pakistan will be able to push huge quantities of coal for export market. He said transportation of coal can be made possible via sea and land route, including rail and road links through necessary infrastructure and specific technology of coal handling. Sino Sindh is currently in process of launching mining at Block-I while a joint venture of Sindh government and Engro Corporation has been allotted lease of Block-II or Thar coalfield and initial phase of mining has been started. Agha Abbas Shah, Secretary Sindh Energy was also fascinated by the glittering prospects being offered by black gold discovered in Thar Desert.” Thar field provides abundant domestic source of coal which i
WingCommander2
20 Jan 2015
meanwhile in block 2... SECMC to negotiate loan with Chinese consortium for Thar power projectsTuesday, 20 January 2015 13:36 Posted by Parvez Jabri E-mailPrintPDFViews:27imageKARACHI: Federal Secretary for Water and Power will lead a team of Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company (SECMC) to China by the end of January or early February 2015 to further negotiate loan with a Chinese consortium for the coal mining project and setting up power plants.For the first time, Pakistan's private sector and the government were jointly seeking loan from China. Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif is personally monitoring the progress on Thar Coal related projects." Few days back, the Prime Minister call me to Islamabad, whom I briefed about the latest status of SECMC project," SECMC's Chief Executive Officer, Shamsuddin Ahmed Shaikh informed a group of journalists representing print and electronic media in Karachi who visited the site of coal mining and power plants in Islamakot.The SECMC is awarded contract for mining from 1,000 sq.kilometers titled block-II of Thar coal deposits spread over 9,000 sq. kilometers and divided into 12 blocks. Besides, the SECMC is tasked with setting up two mine-mouth power plants of 330 MW each in the first phase, he said.He also informed that SECMC wants financial closure between first and second quarters of 2015. The financial closure, he explained, means all the required funds are available. Once the financial closure is complete, the work on the project will speed up.SECMC project -- mining and two power plants - will be operational by the end of 2017 or early 2018. this time, the government will install transmission line of 550 KV up to Jamshoro.These two power plants of 330 MW each will need 3.8 million tons of coal per annum. In second phase, another two power plants of 330 MW each will be set up in partnership with Hubco and Thal (Pvt) Limited.Shaikh said the huge coal deposits are available at the depth of 170 to 180 metres and the thickness (layer) of the coal is more than 30 metres which may be thin at some locations. The coal deposits in block-II are sufficient to generate 5000 MW electricity for half a century. Total Thar coal deposits 175 billion tons are good enough to produce 50,000 MW for fifty years.He said a Dubai based company Bilal Contractors (Pvt) Limited has been awarded contract of removing overburden (earth) in block-II; the upper surface of five metres. The work was going at high space. Two million banked cubic metres (BCM) have so far been removed of total 113 million BCM earth overburden in block- II. Twenty thousand BCM is being removed daily.Chinese machinery and experts have been engaged in mining and power plants construction, he said.SECMC's CEO assured that the mining and power production by this coal will not create any environmental issue as the ashes will be scientifically disposed off including filling of mining holes.He pointed out that SECMC's Thar Coal project has been included in total 13 projects making Pakistan China Economic Corridor, which is also the reason for delay in availability of funds. Dollars 12 billion or $ 13 billion are required for these 13 projects."We are ahead of other 12 projects. We are advance in financing as well," he said adding that Rs 3.8 billion equity has been injected into the project by the current shareholders. For making the project a success, we have hired the best international consultants and experts available.He said the great advantage is that, this project does not need funds in dollars.He noted with satisfaction that Sindh Government is spending Rupees fifty billion on the construction of roads, airport, and water supply and drainage network in Thar. The airport is near completion and 60 percent of water system has been completed.He said the Federal government and the main political parties of the country were also very much supportive to Thar coal projects; sensing these a big source of social and economic change in
WingCommander2
20 Jan 2015
Elsewhere in Pakistan... Coal as an energy source ISLAMABAD: The Hub Power Company on Monday announced that it will set up 1,320MW coal-based power plants next to its thermal power station at Hub in Balochistan and gradually enhance coal based generation to 3,600MW.Speaking to journalists, Hubco’s Chief Executive Officer Khalid Mansoor said the company’s board of directors had formally approved development of two coal-based power plants of 660MW each.The two plants would be initially run on imported coal for which a coal jetty would also be developed, he said.He added that the solution to re-emergence of circular debt and power sector problems lied in improvement in energy mix that was too expensive at the moment and induction of coal based power generation was one of the cheaper energy sources.Mansoor said the coal-based power would continue to be cheaper with an increase in its generation in contrast to expensive oil based power generation.He said Hubco had enough land available near its 1,292MW thermal power plant to house six coal plants of 660MW each and the company has added 1,320MW capacity in the first phase.“We can construct 3,600MW coal-based power plants at Hub and LNG based plants should be set up in Punjab following dip in prices,” Mansoor said.He said the government of Pakistan and Chinese banks had agreed to set up a revolving fund to maintain money equal to one month’s invoice to avoid payment issues due to circular debt in power sector for extending loans for Thar coal project.He informed that Chinese banks had accepted the government guarantees of Pakistan with the setting up of a revolving fund during the visit of Finance Minister Ishaq Dar to China.He said the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) had capped upfront fee for Sinosure (insurance cost) at seven per cent, but because of the presence of circular debt, the company asked for a fee of 9pc for credit risk insurance.“Now, China has agreed to cap fee at 7pc and therefore this issue has been resolved,” he added.He said that tariff for coal based power plants had been estimated to reduce by 10 cents per unit from existing 22 cents per unit.“The price of LNG have come down to $8 to $9 per unit from over $16 per unit and the time is ripe to set up a 3,000MW LNG based power plants near load centers in Punjab where transportation of coal would not be feasible,” he said.He said Hubco was also interested to take part in privatisation of generation companies on competitive basis.He said that the root causes of circular debt included inappropriate energy mix, lack of governance and slow response from the regulatory framework.“Despite payment of around $5 billion circular debt in 2013, it had again reached similar levels within a year,” he said.Therefore, he said coal based IPPs should be pursued immediately for reduction in the cost of energy mix.He said no project could reach financial close unless the menace of circular debt was controlled.“There is no other solution to resolve circular debt other than, enhancing the power subsidy or increasing consumer tariff and improvement on power sector governance issues,” he said, adding Pakistan’s $15bn spending on oil imports was not sustainable.Responding to a question, the Hubco chief said Thar Projects were included in Pak-China economic corridor priority projects list and both mining and power projects had been categorised as “Early Harvest Projects (EHP).” He said the government will provide $700 million sovereign guarantee for Thar mining project.He said it should be national goal to curb dependence on foreign oil and look towards investments in indigenous resources like coal and hydro to help build local energy economy.Published in Dawn January 20th , 2015
WingCommander2
08 Jan 2015
Re: WingCommander2 a project of national importance like this which has the attention of the PM is highly unlikely to be held hostage to baksheesh imho. Pakistan is not an Arab country anyhow, things work differently here.It however does have the same growing pains problems other developing nations have of unreformed and entrenched bureaucracy, different parties pulling in different directions.
Boring Bernie
06 Jan 2015
Re: WingCommander2 Thank Christ for that, and all for an office in Karachi !Almost sounds like a bit of formal baksheesh. Goes on a lot but it still makes me nervous
Tempestas
06 Jan 2015
Re: WingCommander2 A few, no doubt, have made a nice little profit over this incompetence.Hopefully back to what the sp was before Christmas soon.Thanks for your answer the other day Wingcommander2.All the best.
WingCommander2
05 Jan 2015
Re: WingCommander2 Its concerning that Oracle even got such a notification, but in the developing world these things happen. Pakistan is a better place to invest than some others because the governments have already gone through the resource nationalisation mistakes developing countries make, Pakistan went through this in the 1970's with the Bhutto government. Even the leftish leaning PPP party have realised it was a mistake. So going forward Pakistan will be a good place to invest, than some other developing countries still toying with nationalisation. However as regards Thar and ORCP, that's another issue entirely. The question that has not been answered is who sent the notification, and on what basis was the licence cancelled, was this even legal considering ORCP has only just renewed the licence. The issue maybe a struggle between Federal and Provincial governments. Perhaps it was a mistake (incompetence), anything is possible in countries like Pakistan. I'd be surprised if it was a grab for the coal, the coal blocks already allocated in the 7 blocks or so constitute less than 10% of the Coal thought to be in Thar. So there is plenty of it if others want in on the coalfield.
Tempestas
03 Jan 2015
WingCommander2 What is your take on the licence issues?
WingCommander2
02 Jan 2015
going forward regardless of what happens in terms of the licence, the following article outlines how the cement industry is taking up use of Coal as a power source,Attock Cement to set up coal-fired power plant KARACHI: Attock Cement has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with K-Electric for the installation of 40MW coal-fired power plant at its factory situated in Hub, Balochistan, filing at the stock exchange by the company said on Thursday.The company stated that the plant was being installed for the company’s own utilisation and to sell surplus power to K-Electric at mutually agreed terms and conditions.Ravi Textile Mills: The company is a target for takeover of majority shares. The announcement was made on Thursday by the AKD Securities Limited acting as managers for the proposed transaction in which Ahsan Javed Sheikh and Mrs Parveen Ahsan had expressed intention to acquire up to 14.4m shares of the mills, which would comprise 57.42pc of the issued shares of the ‘target company’. The change of hands was stated to be “through an agreement”.The public announcement of intention would be published on Jan 6 in accordance with section 9(1) of the Listed Companies (Substantial Acquisition of Voting Shares and Takeover) Ordinance, 2002.Published in Dawn, January 2nd, 2015
iijewels
12 Dec 2014
Re: Why are we being squeezed out? There are many government departments with various levels of corruption, endemic where there is power, so it's all a matter of playing one off against another. I anticipate/hope ORCP CEO knows the full picture and how to play this curved ball, to the benefit of shareholders that is....
skeaman
12 Dec 2014
Why are we being squeezed out? This announcement raises a lot of questions, the obvious one being why? Why is the Pakistani government trying to take our only asset of us? Are they trying to do a deal directly with the Chinese and squeeze us out? How will this look to other companies who are considering investing in Pakistan? Their policy seems to be get the foreigners in to do the dirty work and then pull the mat from under them at the last possible moment.If the Pakistani Govt or Chinese want the Thar licence, then I for one would happily sell them my shares at a reasonable price. But to pull the licence is a very under hand way of getting our asset.Is there any hope of an appeal being successful in Pakistan, when it is a small British company versus the Government.I really hope there is and we can claw back some of our investment.
