In the dark yet again
19 Oct 2017
Re: Agreed Bid Thanks for the heads up Bill. Certainly some dividends in that list.Unfortunately I don't touch normal insurers, I can't see how they can differentiate themselves to secure any sustainable margin meaning it becomes a commodity with FA margin. The Life side might allow a little room as so many people are 'inert' when it come to financials. The exception for me was always Chesnara which I always preferred to Pheonix.... and still so just I have nearly 10,000 shares already and £4 is at the top end of my (very flimsy) model so not going to jump in for any more at this level.Pretty much don't do funds although I do have a few ITs. Alliance being the biggest but mainly for historical reasons - it was my SIPP for many years, 100% of it for a while. Long time since but I started reinvesting the dividend in other ITs (the boring ones), whichever had the highest discount - it's a crazy theory that discounts on generalists are mean reverting but it's done me proud. Otherwise I have a decent chunk of RIII and SEC both of which I'd consider a tad risky (not least due to the lack of liquidity) but both of which have put the rest of the market to shame in recent years - most of my stuff is blue chip so a little punt on the side in AIM, fledgling and other small caps maybe isn't so crazy. However, it is my SIPP so I tend to play slightly more cautiously than I might with my dealing account or ISA (not sure that makes a lot of sense, it's all money at the end of the day, just my old fashioned mind set I reckon).I guess maybe best just to keep some powder dry - if in doubt 'do nothing' has long been a sage phrase when it comes to investing.Regards,ITDYA
FRTEB
18 Oct 2017
Re: Agreed Bid ITDYA, I mainly invest for income (although sitting on a paper profit is always nice). So on that basis I put the proceeds of the Novae sale towards a 1st tranche of PHNX and topped up my NCYF. I already hold LRE but don't want to add - looks fully valued as it is, as you alluded to. And I also hold the usual suspects for income - a quick list off the top of my head, in no particular order: LGEN AV. HSBA RDSB BP. GSK AZN BLT BSIF TRIG BLND CRST EZJ DC. GOG MARS PETS PFG (recent purchase @650) SDRC SLA BRWM CYN GCP JLEN ...and loads of other divi payers (mainly). I've held some of the above for a few years and some are relatively recent purchases that are still offering good yields and good fundamentals. Maybe of help? I'd also be interested to know what other people did with the proceeds of the Novae sale (and other holdings). Bill
In the dark yet again
18 Oct 2017
Re: Agreed Bid So, out of interest, what did everyone do with their proceeds? LRE looks 'awkward' to me at its current price. BEZ looks to have been a destination for some though I'm not 100% sold on it, HSX looks well stretched to me (although I though that for a long time and it keeps ploughing north).The Lloyds insurers have always been kind to me (on balance) but not much left to choose from.What to do?Regards,ITDYA
FRTEB
02 Oct 2017
Re: Agreed Bid So that's my Catlin, Amlin and now Novae gone, all at a very good profit but what about my divis?!!! At this rate I'll have no insurers left. Who's next, LRE?
In the dark yet again
02 Oct 2017
Re: Agreed Bid Court approval last Thursday, shares delisted this morning. Cash 'as soon as' but no later than 14 days from the effective date i.e. within a couple of weeks...... whether my broker gets it to may account that same day (whenever that is), who knows? Extract of the RNS below:"Novae and AXIS are pleased to announce that, following the delivery of the Court Order to the Registrar of Companies today, the Scheme has now become effective in accordance with its terms and the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Novae is now owned by AXIS BidCo.A Scheme Shareholder on the register of members of Novae at the Scheme Record Time, being 6.00 p.m. (London time) on 29 September 2017, will be entitled to receive 715 pence in cash for each Scheme Share held. Settlement of the consideration to which any Scheme Shareholder is entitled will be effected by way of the despatch of cheques or the crediting of CREST accounts (for Scheme Shareholders holding Scheme Shares in certificated form and in uncertificated form respectively) as soon as practicable and in any event not later than 14 days after the Effective Date, as set out in the scheme document published on 2 August 2017 in relation to the Acquisition, as modified by the announcement made by AXIS and Novae on 24 August 2017"Regards,ITDYA
In the dark yet again
25 Aug 2017
Re: Agreed Bid Agreed bid raised to 715p this morning. I'm assuming it is simply due the weakening of GBP since the bid was first agreed - underneath it's a USD based business after all and maybe a few of the big boys have been holding their cards pretty close to their chests.Anyway, good news for me although I wish I sold more on day 1 when it was above 715 temporarily.Still no formal timetable I can find nor indication of level of acceptance so far but all the Form 8.3s suggest the shares being bought have been into the hands of the arbitragers who only ever want a quick turn so will accept the offer in the end.Regards,ITDYA
In the dark yet again
07 Jul 2017
Re: Agreed Bid MrMeerkat,No idea where you live but the sun has been bright and shinny all day down here in the West Country. A few chores completed, light lunch (alcohol free for a change but I shall make up for that later) and an hours reading, catching up on Novae stuff, the bits that hadn't been top of my list in the past.The 'top' 9 shareholders own just over 50% of the shares but are all some of the usual suspects: Neptune Investment Managers, AXA, M&G, Standard Life etc. etc. plus 3% owned by the Novae Group share plans (cunning to put it into a separate legal entity so limited reporting in the NVA annual reports but, over 3% so all trades reportable on RNS) - so, apart from Novae themselves, it would be difficult to discuss this in with their major shareholders; those companies leak (like a colander?) - just too many people involved to keep a secret - then again 520 to 580 in the last month, maybe not quite so watertight in the first place. Meaning there's no guarantee the shareholders would accept the deal. Recommended so very rare for institutions to say no but they have been known, especially if they think it's on the cheap. Exec long-term 'compensation' plans (share options: how many and at what strike price?). Well the NVA accounts and filings have stuff but it's as clear as mud, freshly stired mud. Of interest because if it's slow and steady, the grants aren't worth the huge massive payoff they could otherwise be. If you had them in your back pocket and thought you'd get things back soon you'd be tempted to sit tight. If you had loads, granted at a very low strike you could be tempted to take the money and run, especially if there were real, serious issues that could take years to resolve with the company. Obviously far be it for me to suggest that senior execs/boards would even dream of putting their own interests before those of shareholders; that would be cynical of me.Me, I don't know; the fact that the SP seems to want to sit 1% to 2% above the cash offer would suggest that maybe Mr Market is half expecting a counter bid or that the Institutions will say 'too cheap, give us some more before we sign off'.Just my random thoughts after an hour of reading. Now, off my backside, go mow the lawn and wander down the pub.....if only investing were just that simples!Regards,ITDYA
MrMeerkat
06 Jul 2017
Re: Agreed Bid ITDYAMy sentiments exactly. I'm a relatively recent holder and have been riding the SP down ever since. So this bid gets me out ahead, but not by much. The SP premium this morning suggests Mr Market thinks another bid will come along, now that NVA is in play. That would sweeten the pill. MM
In the dark yet again
06 Jul 2017
Agreed Bid Agreed bid at 700p, all cash.A little relieved but not hugely impressed. This was nearly £8.50 just last December..... I know, the past is the past and long gone and the bad news was pretty bad. Looks to me like someone has seen the long-term potential and decided to strike while the company is a little distressed.I don't know - I know they were projecting worse than 100% ratio this year but how bad? Anyway, the management have 'accepted it' and are recommending it. Gut instinct based on nothing other than just that, gut, is that it's a cheap bid but if the problems really are that bad and there's limited access to new capital to back it up in the short-term then, well, a rescue is a rescue and you can't turn it down.Anyway, recommended just wonder whether it might force someone else out of the woodwork with a higher bid.Regards,ITDYA thinking that's another Lloyds insurer gone... not many left. On the bright-side all my LRE is also up on the back of it.
In the dark yet again
01 Mar 2017
Re: Results... Thank you Mr Meerkat, that explains why I couldn't find anything. See you next week.Regards,ITDYA
MrMeerkat
28 Feb 2017
Re: Results... As per yesterday's RNS, the prelims are delayed until 9 Mar while NVA assesses the impact of the government's announcement re the discount rate for injury compensation.
In the dark yet again
28 Feb 2017
Results... .... due tomorrow. Anyone any thoughts?Me not expecting good news as the market has sold this down recently - not for me to suggest that anyone might have inside knowledge but it often does happen.My stop is still at £6 and I will use it - no point in stops if you try to out think them; that's why they are there, the point where your original thinking is clearly wrong so walk away. I hope I don't have to.LRE ticking alone nicely. Recent results reconfirmed their commitment to keep returning as much cash as possible to shareholders but I'm not looking to buy more at the current level.Anyone any thoughts on Hiscox? Or have I missed the boat on that one - don't know much about that one but the results looked pretty decent to the uninitiated.Strange thing was I thought NVA was the quality play. Just shows how much I know!Regards,ITDYA
In the dark yet again
16 Dec 2016
Re: EPS forecasts Underwriting is a strange business - proper old fashioned Risk Management when it's done properly.Me, never did the front-line, always the reinsurance cover or, at worst, refunding it. Crazy days in Switzerland; smart, clean, efficient but definitely not funny.Regards,ITDYA, thinking glad that's all behind me.
Greyinvestor
08 Dec 2016
EPS forecasts I'm basing my decision on an EPS forecast done by me of 55p ie half what the so-called experts say.At 55p, the divi is still covered. I'm holding on. Hopefully they'll still pay the projected divi and next year will be better.I think that what this proves is that NVA don't have enough speciality products of their own. They've been hoovering up business without looking hard enough at risk. It must be down to the MD.
In the dark yet again
08 Dec 2016
Re: Not a good year It is indeed an ugly statement. Unfortunately, if this falls much more, it will trigger my stop loss (£6). LRE down too, presumably simply on the back of this announcement, i.e. the market thinking all the Lloyds underwriters are liable to get hit the same so, in the absence of an announcement from LRE that all is fine, they'll tend to hit also.I must admit I have seen this kind of thing with the Lloyds underwriters before - one does brilliantly for a few years then nowhere/negative for a while when the others that had been doing nothing suddenly push on. Whether it was Amlin, Brit, Chaucer or Hiscox, it pretty much happened to them all.Anyway, my LRE is up almost as much as my NVA is down and, overall, the quoted Lloyds underwriters have been kind to me over the years so will sit tight and try to weather the storm.Regards,ITDYA not sure whether this year is the 'exception' or whether they just got lucky for the past two.
