cautiousjon
16 May 2018
relentless downtrend Greyinvestor Relentless downtrend for a year. Lack your confidence in NRR, growing conviction this is a sector to avoid.
Greyinvestor
16 May 2018
Topped up Hefty top up by me today. I can be pretty stubborn when I want to be........
Greyinvestor
15 May 2018
Re: NRR potential A good list Devon, but all a wee bit expensive just now. My huge pile of AAIF are on an average gain of 40%. I’ve wanted HHI for ages, but won’t overpay.Dumped my NTG this morning, didn’t lose money thank goodness. Will get out of WPP if I reach breakeven.There is so little to buy these days that I fret for months on end, but I did pile into RQIH and BPM, until the price went too high.
FRTEB
15 May 2018
Re: NRR potential " Anyone else looking forward to thin August trading? " I'm not fussy when the thin trading occurs! I do think we'll see a significant dip in the markets within the next year. Unpredictable Trump has so much potential to be the catalyst and I think the road to Brexit will be bumpy before we finally leave the EU, plus there are so many other potential world events to set the volatility ball rolling. As for NRR - it already looks way oversold but that's not to say it can't fall further - it's clearly still in a downtrend. Worst case I can see on a chart is a brief dip into the 230s. Seems unlikely but anything is possible. Heck of a buying opportunity if that happens!
devonplay
15 May 2018
Re: NRR potential On the positive side Grey; if you dont have some red in your portfolio you're either very lucky or haven't got anything with potential to be good value.I've just added AAIF to my Jim Phelps, Mission Impossible, watch list. - stocks I'd like to buy on a big market/EM panic. Ideally something short term!My list for that day;AAIFEATMIGOHHIUKDV Unless something else in my porfolio looks good value. Maybe this one again?I last bought UKDV in February, it's up 4% since then with a 4% yield. I missed picking up HHI at it's recent low in April. That I regret."but, they don't have enough yield!" I hear them shout LolAnyone else looking forward to thin August trading?Sell in May, no way! Go make cash for a down day! I'm hoping we'll get some over the summer.DL
Greyinvestor
15 May 2018
NRR potential You are, of course, correct about the capital loss. My feeling is that the shorters look at the discount on Intu and Hammerson and are simply betting that they can replicate it.On the other side of the fence you have Woodford and Invesco, the determined value investors. Being oldish, I believe in them.In my view you have negatives; rising interest rates (?!), falling rents, the Internet. REITs are always an interest rate bet.Then you have positives; a hated sector so bargains now abound (=big yields), a good set of managers, development potential.I was way too early into these, but I still believe in them......
PrefInvestor1
15 May 2018
Re: Selling and buying - soi Hi Again soi,Yes I hold AEWU and RGL also, pretty happy with them.Took a look at MXF as you said you have a large holding there. Nice 7% plus yield but wow 28% premium to NAV (down from close to 50% a year ago) and biggest costs I’ve ever seen. 8.44% including performance fees !. Hmmmmm.ATBPref
PrefInvestor1
15 May 2018
Re: Culprits - GreylInvestor Hi Grey,Some big names (some with deep pockets) amongst the shorters eg JPM and Old Mutual according to your link. Also see ToscaFund in the list (they are or were involved with RGL as I recall).Certainly appear to being successful pushing the price down.What use is a big dividend when it is far exceeded by the capital loss ?.ATBPref
Greyinvestor
14 May 2018
Re: Store footfall in 'unprecedented' de... I think that Next is less than 1% of the rent roll. The concentration in the NRR portfolio is very low, see their latest presentation. Primark is the key clothes retailer......
Greyinvestor
14 May 2018
Culprits These are the culprits:[link] shorters are in. It depends on your nerves, I'm keeping my large holding and recently added a few Intu (now showing a small profit).A Hold for me. Incredible dividend.
devonplay
14 May 2018
Re: Store footfall in 'unprecedented' de... If you get a chance to read the report TX you’ll see destination, none high street, footfall was up.I like the community based strategy . That feel’s right given our aging demographic and this more general move to remaking more local.Shopping trips have changed. A decade most families did a weekly “big” shop, that’s now moved to 3 shopping trips per week.Now each of those pubs has a suitable car park there’s opportunity for a store or at least a pickup point for parcels.The reports available on Springs site, you just need to provide an email...and one time accounts appear to work I think this is worth a punt at this price. I’m holding out for likely short term opportunity, and waiting on likely future prospects for UK PLC before adding again.DL
TX2
14 May 2018
Re: Store footfall in 'unprecedented' declin... NewRiver has only a small exposure to the traditional high street;in the main it owns retail warehouse parks plus local shopping centres.Most if not all of the former & a good proportion of the latter have car parking and tend to be "destination locations".It also owns a large number of pubs,mainly bought from Marston's,held for investment & probable long term redevelopment.So far the bulk of the slowing of footfall has been in the High Street esp less favoured locations;However it is a fact of life we only have a finite amount of money to spend and if we decide to spend increasing amounts online we have less to spend in bricks & mortar shops.Quite small drop in turnover can make retail outlets much less profitable.Next which is an anchor tenant on a number of NewRiver owned retail parks has prepared for a situation where all its business is online and at best expects a situation where shop sales decline(currently circa 7% per annum).At best it is likely that tenants will be looking to sign shorter leases at realistic rental levels.I have a smallish recent holding here which is showing a loss;actually my only REIT or general property investment out of many holdings in negative territory so in the scheme of things neither here nor there.I intend to observe whether present negative sentiment against retail property companies translates into reduced occupancy and/or NewRiver having to offer lower rents to maintain occupancy before deciding to buy or sell here.
devonplay
14 May 2018
Store footfall in 'unprecedented' decline From the BBC[link] was expecting more of a decline over the last few days. Another 4-5 % and I'll add another tranche.10 & 20% below the high, give or take.DL
soi
14 May 2018
Re: Selling and buying 278.3 another share buy.ATBsoi
soi
14 May 2018
Re: Selling and buying - soi Good Morning PrefYes,it is excellent for short term trading,exceptionally lively for a REIT.I consider that at 350 it was over valued so not surprised by the fall.In a 1 year downtrend it is for sure but think the fall overdone and we are somewhere near the bottom ( famous last words )I share your concern re. they being UK retail focused, think that is in the current sp though. Their future very much aligned to that of UK PLC.However, on to positives :No tenant takes more than 2.9 % of their retail space and that client is Primark, strong company.LTV is 33 %, not worrying.The average rent they charge per sq.ft. is actually quite low, therefore their tenants should be mostly OK.The management is excellent.Any additions I make to my long term holding here will only be after having sold trading tranches, and as said by not selling entire prior buys.I`m in no rush to build up my holding.__________ __________ __________ _As to other REITS I have AEWU & RGL, modest size, plan to add on latter in time.MXF, large holding , around 7 % yield.Recently bought THRL ( Target Healthcare ) modest tranche at 107.6. About 6 % yield.This moves a bit as well as times. Might add.ATB & GLsoi
