gamesinvestor
05 May 2015
BRIT Insurance Hi -- The BRIT board is pretty quiet, hence the question here.Anyone received payment from BRIT yet, apart from the divi on 30th April?The market price is still showing 278.5 yet the brokerage account shows the price at 12p. Not sure what's going on.The publication shows that shareholders should get paid no later than 10 days after the offer become unconditional.Any idea if that is now the case?Games
aspace
04 May 2015
Re: Reinsurance Sector Collapse Not able to access as this article is subscription only. Are you able to summarise its key point?Insurance linked securities invsted in by pension funds are squeezing reinsurance, but I dont think that threatens the market. More likely to burn the pension funds who fail to understand the capital risks with ILS in the event of a major catastrophe.
gamesinvestor
04 May 2015
Reinsurance Sector Collapse This article was published in the FT this week.[link] not qualified to assess how close this is to the model of insurance and re-insurance that LRE adopts, or if the article truly and accurately represents the risks of the suggested possible meltdown in this industry due to the way the re-insurance products are bundled.Sound like they are indicating that there are close similarities between the collateralised debt packages that brought down the banks in 2008 to what's happening in this industry today.I've invested in CGL, BRIT both of which are exiting and I guess I have been lucky with both, especially with my limited knowledge of the industry.I'm wondering if a complete break from this by selling LRE is timely, given some of the negative comments on here by people more closely aligned.If I sell now, perhaps I will have had a profitable ride and a lucky escape at the same time.Games - What was it they say? - "if you don't understand, don't invest" and I have to say I'm guilty here - lucky so far, but guilty nonetheless.
gamesinvestor
03 May 2015
Re: Q1 results Grey,Interesting that Invesco increased their holding above 14% on Friday.[link]
Greyinvestor
30 Apr 2015
Re: Q1 results Having chewed the fat all day, I too have now reduced my stake. I had already sold 100% of my AML and most of my NVA, although the price of AML is now much more competitive. I have retained 50% of my LRE holding. I have retained 100% of my BEZ.My issue is the rates; a 10% fall in rates for a good insurer is a sure fire indication of trouble to come. When claims come in, profits are going to be hit hard.I'll buy back in when rates harden, but not before.
Rusty Jock
30 Apr 2015
Re: Q1 results Greyinvestor .... you are very brave holding these from here on I fear .The 2014 dividend was fantastic , but with negligable returns on investment and lower margins on insurance , they are clinging to the hope that they will not suffer from a bad claims period which coul knock their balance sheet big time .Like you my main holding was Catlin , but after the takeover I switched into Lancashire and Amlin . After their recent results neither of these are looking so good . The dividend remains the only reason to hold , and that may be undermined by falls in the share price .So this morning I sold out my Lancashire holding , thankfully with a decent 20% profit in a few months . I will continue being a tentative holder in Amlin .Cash is not a bad place to be right now .Pity about Catlin !
Greyinvestor
30 Apr 2015
Q1 results The Q1 results are out today, and the results will be interpreted very differently by readers, I suspect.In my view;Rates (10%) - grimPremiums (15%) - grim, very approximate due to method of renewalsBook value well down to about £4.23, due to founder warrants (which I have warned about before) as well as special dividendsCombined ratio 72% v 66%, still very goodEPS $.27 v $.31. I would be hoping for full year earnings around 50p to 60p, in line with estimatesI think that fair value for these shares is no more than £5.92, maybe less given that the company is shrinking because of market pressure.I maintain my view that this is a well run business in a bad market. QE is driving down margins and it won't end until a big catastrophe really hammers all of the insurers balance sheets.I miss Catlin!I am a holder of my LRE shares, mainly because i need the income. But I'm not a buyer at this price.
albent
08 Apr 2015
Lancashire Holdings looking undervalued? Lancashire Holdings (LSE:LRE): [link] infographic has some good data.
churjones
07 Mar 2015
Re: Take profits? How are you rober01 not seen much of you on the boards of late any tips or some research for me to analyse, how are things for you in this market of caution with all the twists and turns that are evident regards
Warthog4
06 Mar 2015
Re: LRE valuation Thanks Grey investor-another useful database for the library.
Greyinvestor
04 Mar 2015
Re: LRE valuation [link] this, which I watch. I'm not always against shorters, just the dishonest ones.......
Warthog4
04 Mar 2015
Re: LRE valuation Interesting info.-from where did you obtain it please?As usual we SI's get kicked in the cojones by the antics of the big boys.High time shorting was banned
one derer
03 Mar 2015
Re: LRE valuation JPMorgan & Odey Asset Management have, between them, shorted 6.19% of Lancashire Holdings. This could explain weakness over last couple of days.
Greyinvestor
03 Mar 2015
LRE valuation I went back over my valuation of LRE. You have to be really careful to allow for the dilution caused by things like warrants.The fully diluted book value is about £3.98. Times 1.4 gives a value of £5.57The EPS forecast is 60p, giving a value of £6.00A mid point is therefore about £5.78 for fair value, I think.So the shares are still overvalued, in my opinion. I'm not selling any more, but I wouldn't buy at this price.
gamesinvestor
03 Mar 2015
Re: Valuations Good post -- After CGL and BRIT exits, I'm holding LRE and will probably tough this one out. Not buying anything else at the moment, like you say looks a bit toppy.Games
