Flank
08 Oct 2015
Re: OOPS! From the FT yesterday:[link] the maker of opiate addiction medicine, faded 7.5 per cent to 216.9p. Generic drugmakers are due next month to begin a legal challenge of Indivior’s formulation patents for its Suboxone film, which provides more than three quarters of group revenues."
tradingup
07 Oct 2015
OOPS! sharp drop in SP today, for no apparent reason as far as I can see but others may know more.Just put my toe in the water here but as previous poster has analysed this does look to be something of a one trick pony although a sizeable one at that.
II Editor
02 Sep 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Find quality shares at cheap prices in volatile markets "Stockmarket volatility can be stomach churning for even the hardiest investor. Yet a disciplined focus on company fundamentals in these conditions can make it possible to pick up good quality shares at momentarily cheap prices.During the recent ..."[link]
aspace
18 Aug 2015
Re: Analysis of INDV My analysis on INDV gives it a thumbs down. INDV has one product: suboxone on which the 31 Dec 14 show a declining revenue trend (Consolidated Income Statement page 67 and four year sales data shown on page 93). Although they appear to be selling it at a profit, the truth seems to be that they are operating at a loss due to operational payments paid to the former parent RB. This is shown in note 23 on page 91. For some reason they show payments to RB for 'cash pooling and general financing activities' and not 24 on related party transactions suggests there are other back-office charges from RB. Rather than showing these costs in the Income Statement, they appear to be showing them directly in the equity section of the balance sheet. What worries me about that is that these payments to the former parent ultimately do reduce the value of the balance sheet but are not shown in the Income Statement, making the Income Statement's profit potentially illusory. The auditors Pricewaterhousecoopers have signed it off so it must be OK, but I don't like it. Now if I have understood this correctly (which I may not have) this poor state of affairs is consistent with RB's inability to sell the suboxone business a couple of years back, and their option to instead sell it to the market via a separate listed company against which they continue to charge costs. A nice arrangement for RB but not so good for INDV. So my conclusion is that INDV has declining revenues on one not very profitable product.
nk1999
31 Jul 2015
Broker views From ADVFN:"Shares in Indivior were given a downgraded 'neutral' rating from Citi after their strong performance in the year to date, while Deutsche Bank argued the company's drug pipeline was not fully reflected in valuation and upgraded to 'buy'.A day after the company's interim results, Citi raised its target to 270p from 240p but said an 80% run in the stock since the beginning of 2015 had changed the balance of risk and reward.Read more: Indivior hikes guidance as it holds off generic attack in solid first halfThe bank mulled the potential loss of intellectual property on Indivior's heroin addiction treatment, Suboxone film, which is currently being contested by litigation lawyers."Our estimates and valuation framework is unchanged, but we believe the share price now reflects a significant delay to Suboxone film generics from the worst case scenario of February 2016."The litigation outcome is expected to have a significant impact, with the loss of IP on Suboxone film likely to lead to around 70p of downside to the current share price, whereas a settlement or delay to generics beyond 2019 would provide upside.News on the company's drug pipeline is expected to flow freely in the second half 2015, with Citi eyeing positive results for the monthly buprenorphine depot as key to Indivior's valuation, while an important PK study for a swallowable capsule also on track to begin soon and intranasal naloxone approval expected around the end of 2015.At current levels, the stock trades on 17 times 2016 earnings with an estimated 2016-2021 EPS growth of 11%, in line with the sector, which Citi said offered a balanced risk/reward payoff.However, Deutsche's upgrade was based on a discounted cash flow target hiked hugely to 300p from 220p as analyst Sarah Potter takes over coverage."Our base case model now conservatively assumes a negative scenario of launch of generic Suboxone film from 2018. Despite this, our DCF valuation still offers 12% upside," she wrote.Potter also said she saw the potential for multiple pipeline catalysts through 2015, which offers a further 34p or 11% upside and "should increase investor confidence in Indivior's pipeline", plus the "high likelihood" that Indivior engages in M&A to diversify away from buprenorphine which should offer yet more upside.Deutsche took confidence from management's bullish results presentation and noted that business development is the next priority with a focus on addiction, central nervous system and addiction co-morbidities.Indivior also reiterated its prior comments that settlement remained an option with the Suboxone film ANDA filers given it would provide visibility on a significant overhang to both investors and ratings agencies."nk
mcescher
29 Jul 2015
Analysis of INDV With a PE of 9.1x, what are peoples opinions on whether INDV is good value? I've been researching on here [link]
picstloup
29 Jul 2015
Wot a nice divi Earnings up, debt down, 3.2c interim dividend and 6.4c final expected. Not bad at all at all
picstloup
02 Apr 2015
Topped up Used up the spare cash in my ISA to add to my modest allocation of INDV, taking it to 1% of my pot.
The Origami Kid
18 Mar 2015
Re: Wot? No divi? A divi would be nice as I topped up with that in mind. That said, these have risen over 30% since launch which is rather more than I was hoping for....... so any lack of a divi is more than covered by growth to date.
