Willow67
06 Oct 2015
Re: Franco Manca expansion Yep, they bought someone out. I co-own a new place called Theo's in Camberwell (see theospizzaldn on twitter, and come visit!) and my chef partner knows the owners of Apollo, who just opened in Stoke Newington at 160 and then found out almost on the day they opened that Franco Manca were opening 5 doors down. They were literally in tears. There will be a FM on every London high street in 5 years (including Camberwell no doubt). I am less confident about Fulham Shore than I used to be, in part because the impact on them of the living wage could be significant with their super-cheap business model and because I sense their quality is starting to drift
twotonetyrone
16 Sep 2015
Franco Manca expansion Sourdough pizza chain Franco Manca is continuing its expansion across London, taking a restaurant in Stoke Newington previously occupied by Stokey Stop.Stokey Stop, advised by City fringe specialist Paul Belchak & Co, has sold its 22 year unexpired lease which has a passing rent of £40,000 a year for an undisclosed premium. The 176 Stoke Newington High Street restaurant comprises a 2,500 sq ft restaurant over ground and lower floors. Franco Manca was founded by Giuseppe Mascoli and started in Brixton Market in 2008. The restaurant now has over 15 outlets in the capital and was recently purchased by Fulham Shore plc.
Willow67
21 Jun 2015
Re: One to watch-o/t willow Hi no I am still in them, just much smaller size than in the past
jonnydurex
27 May 2015
Re: One to watch-o/t willow Thanks willow much appreciated. I remembered you were in that line and therefore very much appreciate your viewpoint. I don't think you are in amer anymore but they do seem to be picking up again! jd
Willow67
22 May 2015
Re: One to watch-o/t willow More specifically the company has a market cap of £100M or thereabouts. They have 12 FM's which will grow to around 40 in 3 years. They have so much money that they can just go out and buy prime sites wherever they want. They have bought quite a few London sites which have not opened yet…..e.g. Stoke Newington. Anyway, assume that business owns 40 sites, making on average £150k EBITDA, worth c.x12, gives you a forward valuation of £72m, throw in RG worth say £20m and there you go, the current market cap. On top of that I have no doubt they will buy something else, possible a burger chain which will involve a big share issue/dilution. I like the shares because I like and know the business but I am not as convinced about the possibility of upward trajectory here as things stand. The wild card is possibly whether they can turn FM into something really big, by taking it out across the UK and possibly internationally. As things stand I am a seller in the low 20's and a buyer at 14-15 area. We probably won't get a proper business update until they publish full year results to end of March, which will come out I think in July/August (annoyingly late). Even that could be of limited value as the FM acquisition closed after the y/e.
Willow67
19 May 2015
Re: One to watch-o/t willow The business i believe is doing well. The challenge here is the valuation!
jonnydurex
13 May 2015
One to watch-o/t willow Hi Willow great to see you have done so well here and I think you are back in again? I lost a few bob on ppc but still have my amer and have seen a big paper profit disappear. Am going to be stricter with my stop losses from now on!I was wondering what you thought the time scale might be before these start to move again and whether you have an idea how the business is performing?jd
Willow67
20 Apr 2015
Re: Franco Manca acquisition Have you heard anything specific about locations of sites outside London?
twotonetyrone
15 Apr 2015
Re: Franco Manca acquisition Not sure i agree it's water under the bridge - general meeting to vote on 20 April. Either way all feels bit 'close'.Nonetheless it's a great offer and, like you, i can see them expanding rapidly and they'll be welcomed with open arms by landlords. I know they have sites in the pipeline outside London which will be interesting to monitor.TTT
Willow67
15 Apr 2015
Re: Franco Manca acquisition Ceratinly a related party transaction but water under the bridge now the company will own the entire business. I am less confident on the Real Greek than I am on Franco Manca, which I see being a 50+ (maybe even 100) business in a number of years. I am in that line of business myself. Then there is the question of what the 3rd leg of the business will be; my guess a burger chain.The challenge with investing is that the company will no doubt be issuing further equity to grow and as always on AIM, us small shareholders will be excluded and diluted. Thats the reason why I haven't invested even more than i currently have.
twotonetyrone
13 Apr 2015
Re: Franco Manca acquisition Well done Willow for being so early on this. I've been following for a while and been watching SP reaction to Franco Manca acquisition. Feel the directors are slightly conflicted given their existing ownership of the business in their private capacity (hence the inflated price??) but a cracking business and, speaking from experience, delicious pizzas!TTT
Willow67
05 Apr 2015
Re: Franco Manca acquisition Mistake in my numbers...the market cap will be £100m post the acquisition. It doesn't change my view much on the attractiveness of the opportunity
Willow67
01 Apr 2015
Franco Manca acquisition This is hugely significant transaction and to me a huge opportunity. Although they have paid what seems a lot at £27m for 10 restaurants, they have taken ownership of the best niche pizza brand in the UK and have a vastly experienced management team who know the business extremely well and a clear, relatively low execution risk strategy to quadruple its size over the next few years. I expect to see a constant stream of openings going forwards. Once they reach the stated target of 40 they will be generating EBITDA of £10-15m, which should mean the company is worth £150-200m for this business alone, let alone The Real Greek and anything else they buy (my guess a burger chain like Honest Burger or Patty and bun) vs the current market cap of £50m. I bought back in yesterday and today in much greater size than I previously owned making it my biggest single shareholding by a long distance. I am amazed more investors aren't taking note of this company given the rubbish people are generally investing their money in on AIM.
Willow67
02 Jan 2015
Sold I sold my entire position this morning for +135% gain. At a market cap now of £73m (SP 22p) things look very stretched to me. They have just reported and the only likely news in the next 3m is the opening of the Berwick St Real Greek, unless they buy a new chain. I will look to re-enter around 15p on any sell-off.
Willow67
28 Dec 2014
Re: 2015 Thanks, yep here's the mention: "The portfolio needs recruits and I have descended on a company called Fulham Shore, a restaurant business being developed by David Page and Nabil Mankarious, famed for their successful expansion and sale of the ubiquitous Pizza Express chain. After almost two years on the fringe ISDX share market, the company last month graduated to the Stock Exchange's junior market, AIM. The shares have been recruited at 9.5p, a price capitalising the enterprise at £21.1m. Fulham's AIM debut followed the £13.9m takeover of Real Greek, a seven-strong restaurant chain that produced after-tax profits in its latest year of £800,000. As the name implies, its eateries provide eastern Mediterranean dishes and fit in with the group's first venture, a single restaurant offering Italian food. Coinciding with the Greek acquisition, financed mostly with shares, was a cash-raising share sale, pulling in around £1.6m. Mr Page has made no secret of his desire to expand the Greek chain – he says it could grow to around 40 branches – and is scouting for other restaurants to swallow. The takeover and the cash-raising exercise were executed at a price of 6p a share. I have followed Fulham since it first appeared on ISDX"
