tornadotony
29 Oct 2019
Long time since this outfit managed to hit a target Fresnillo over valued by around 12%. The track record of 4 quarterly targets missed in a row is set to continue. The company was earning more money per annum when the share was valued at 600p a few years back. Of course the debts and capex are bigger now. The correct price was two weeks back and not at the current 675p level.
tornadotony
23 Oct 2019
Deeper analysis The silver bottom target does look attainable on the low end. The target for gold is ambitious at 240,000 ounces. The company suggests that it will certainly be above 210,000 ounces. It is possible with a hint of grade improvement of 10%. The issue here is that the share is running at a high forward PE rate probably above 28. Additionally capex expenditure on mine development is currently high and so dividend return has to be quite low as debt needs to be repaid. 630p makes this an expensive share despite to hold. It requires very high gold and silver prices for all of 2020 to justify such premium. The earnings improvement from 9 cents is arising and the year total looks like 29 cents. Next year it may improve to 45 cents. If that occurs than the PE rate drops to 18 as it was in 2018. The 630 price therefore includes all the possible good news that may happen in 2020 and so no discount value exists in the current price. The issue here is no head room value other than just a modest divi pay out. I take back the 4 handle I suggested earlier but sub 600p gives some risk protection for would be buyers. I still feel 570-590p is where Fresnillo should be valued.
tornadotony
23 Oct 2019
Dreadful Q3 report A 400p handle is not impossible here. The latest RNS is truly awful again.
tornadotony
15 Oct 2019
Fresnillo moving in advance of gold and silver moves Different miners are following different patterns to the gold and silver price. Polymetal is firmly in the present. Fresnillo is clearly in my opinion in the future of where it is heading in the coming weeks. Centamin is following back on the route it ascended upwards with steps down over time. So Fresnillo dropped 80p to cover the 1560-1500. 770-690p. 1500-1440 is 690-610p. A drop heading to 1420 gold takes Fresnillo to 595p.
tornadotony
11 Oct 2019
Gold and Fresnillo support lines breaches Gold spot price support lines at 1490 and 1479 now breached. Remaining support lines are 1471, 1438 and a very strong line at 1423. Fresnillo support line at 644p is broken. The 634 support line is now breached. Remaining support lines are at 611p and 570p.
tornadotony
08 Oct 2019
Gold Gap closed Fresnillo shares at risk of re-testing recent lows.
tornadotony
01 Oct 2019
Final support lines remaining The last two support lines before capitulation are 656.2p and at 625p. Once they go there are no support lines for this stock.
tornadotony
27 Sep 2019
Support line fully breached Second support line breached. Final support line at 703p. If it goes fresnillo in a major share price break down.
tornadotony
27 Sep 2019
Support line fully breached Next support line is at 709p. Fresnillo in some trouble.
tornadotony
26 Sep 2019
Bottom of the hourly channel Interesting to see if it moves back to the top of the hourly channel which was near 740p. The bottom appears to have been 724p-726p area.
tornadotony
12 Sep 2019
Peso moving higher to USD Despite USD going higher after Draghi ineffective measures to create inflation and more bad investment decisions, the peso romps back to early August levels against USD. Labour costs at Fresnillo just went up 2%. Probably a small factor but one to keep an eye on if the Mexico economy is on the up compared to USA.
orsotoro
11 Sep 2019
Loadng up I think this is a relief rally specific to Free earlier heavy fall following the results and divi cut. Will be staying nimble.
tornadotony
11 Sep 2019
Loadng up Good luck orsotoro, My only bad move was coming out of this one. Case of protecting hard won earlier Fresnillo profits. Will rejoin if it falls back. Uncertain how this will respond to central bankers pumping markets leaves me thinking its a bit of a coin toss. Tony
orsotoro
11 Sep 2019
Loadng up Looking strong for tomorrow. Still in and looking for the 760 770 level over the remainder of the week.
tornadotony
11 Sep 2019
Loadng up Took profits at 702.3p as trend supporting miners is lost. Gold favouring a move downwards to 1479 through USA open. Opportunities given this morning are to escape in my own opinion.
