Fevertree Drinks Forum

Nb: was replying to Sage in the Hills

Although the flip side of that argument is to question why was he was so keen to up size his sale and at a c. 10% discount to market to boot. Is it the case that the institutions are the "smart" money here and an insider is the "dumb" money voluntarily missing out on an amazing future growth trajectory... a potential future bid? That argument always makes me uncomfortable given the sheep that most fund managers are. Now before everyone flames me I'm just playing devil's advocate. I understand the bull case here and take nothing away from management for what they have achieved. I have also been an extremely happy holder in the past, selling my final tranche only recently. And of course insiders can be selling for many "innocent" reasons: desire for liquidity, portfolio diversification. But this is £82.5m of liquidity. Unless there is a gin palace under construction that's a mighty chunk of change for anyone. And given what an amazing investment Fevertree has been historically you would struggle to reinvest those proceeds (assuming that a good proportion are going to be reinvested) and achieve anything like a similar return. Unless, unless it turns out that your super star's best years are actually behind it. And the risk at 75+ historic PE is actually on the downside on any potential revenue growth deceleration. All IMHO

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