HPC Follower
17 Jan 2017
Large drop on small volumes Some CZA shares are being sold at knock down prices whilst news on various projects seems to be delayed... could be time to top up again?
The buzz
20 Dec 2016
Re: Price of Coal/coke If you want to see the current quarterly contract price for coking coal:-[link] sure how reliable this source is but seems to be sensible:-[link] big question is how much is the coal in the ground worth as the price could have radically moved by the time that coal has been dug up. There is talk that the coal price rise was manufactured by China restricting output, and that this output can easily come back to the market and drive prices down. That said the coal price ought to be supported by a higher price for crude oil.The B
nat-king-coal
20 Dec 2016
Re: Price of Coal/coke Thank you Iclaude.I was looking at a older bit ofnews same sort of out lookfor the black stuff lets hopeit keep's going in the rightdirection.
Iclaude
20 Dec 2016
Re: Price of Coal/coke [link] the above link. It's a couple of days old but was a snippet regarding coking coal in relation to the iron ore rises.
nat-king-coal
20 Dec 2016
Re: Price of Coal/coke That's old news I think.Unless you can show the link for that ABC 24 News.
Iclaude
20 Dec 2016
Price of Coal/coke The price of coal has nearly doubled since last year in Australia and the signs are pointing to steadier markets, according to ABC 24 News.
scruffee
28 Nov 2016
Tucked a few away ... Thanks for notes ..................... Best Wishes.x
2bozmo
27 Nov 2016
Re: AGM notes Sorry mistake in notes, rushing to get done on train!. Makhado financing complete by June 2017 not CGA funding. CGA funding should be done in couple of weeks.
2bozmo
25 Nov 2016
AGM notes Here are myAGM notes. I'll try and expand or answer any questions. Present: Bernard Pryer (Chairman) and David Brown Others there: 3 shareholders, maybe a journo and few from Tavistock Communication where held; Dealt with main business and resolutions; went through with no issues; One investor questioned why options vested were given cash despite being under water. DB corrected that the cash amount was just the value of the options given by the Black-Scholes model. These pure options are now performance rights which are only granted if total shareholders return is achieved. It’s not free cash! Slightly tedious as always and lasted 15-20 mins before DB said a few words and said investor above asked a few questions. I’ll incorporate what was said into my conversation with DB afterwards. I’ve met DB a number of times previously and have regular e-mail contact and given that confidentiality will not share everything he said. Given the coal price performance positive, the outlook is bright. DB believed the market cap of the company is low relative to NAV/IRR of project; regulatory environment that needs to be completed; Makhado: Water license expect to be granted first quarter 2017; surface rights in 3 of the 5 areas complete. They could have completed the water license this year but decided to wait. There will be additional costs when the licence is granted so decided there’s no urgency. Confident will be approved again. Vele: Expect the perennial stream water licence to be granted over the next couple of weeks. The decision whether this gets the go ahead will probably be heard at the March board meeting. Sounded positive that it will. Mooiplaats: He presented some initiatives to the board this week (again not say what they were). He’s still confident that it will be sold but it’s been frustrating. I suggested they might mine it themselves but with $20m required over 4 years for a project that would last 11 years they would rather not invest that sum. Cash: The key date is June 2017 when the final Rio Tinto payment is due. He didn’t go into detail but said there were a lot of initiatives going on and was confident they would come to fruition. He doesn’t expect this to be an issue. CGA funding:Expect a mixture of debt and equity with it being difficult to arrange a debt package lent against future cash flow 4-years down the line so some part liquidation but will allow environment for re-rate. Some will be raised by selling stakes in individual projects. They are all well supported by current shareholders (see the memorandum for Universal deal): Had some funding talks over last few months; expect accelerate funding discussions with everything in place by June 2017; CGA: This wasn’t really mentioned during the AGM but we discussed at length. They have been talking to Keaton and when I mentioned yesterday’s Keaton news he had a glint in his eye, but they are one of a number of companies they have been speaking with. He also mentioned that they have also been approached by a number. He firmly believes once they get first deal then more acquisitions will follow, and the COAL we see in 2 years time will be significantly different from the one we see at present. The first deal will be a ‘big’ deal; glad they didn’t do the Universal deal as net cash would be AUD25m lighter than forecast. Final thoughts: In the time I spend talking to him, there is no doubt in his mind, COAL will transform, as will the industry. He is also immensely frustrated by regulations and that the time frames have been delayed and no CGA has been acquired. However, he’s very confident everything will come together and they’ll be a significant re-rating. I cannot tell you everything he said, as he asked for an element of confidentiality, but suffice to say, his belief appears well founded and there is the potential for an announcement over the next few weeks. I'm long and will
ianio
24 Nov 2016
Re: Share Price Movement [link] Keaton Energy in takeover talks after expressions of interest KEATON Energy said it had received “expressions of interest from various parties” regarding the takeover of the company – an announcement that added 7% to the firm’s share price today. Keaton Energy, which produces about two million tonnes a year (Mtpy) of coal from its Vanggatfontein mine in Mpumalanga province, is now worth R277m having doubled in value in the last 30 days. It gave few other details except to say the interest was “non-binding” and that the firm was assessing the merits of the offers. It had said in an earlier announcement that it had entered into “discussions” that might affect its share price. The offers come at a time when Keaton is facing the challenge of having to finance its $20m to $25m (R285m to R355m) Moabsvelden project, a proposed 1.5 to 1.6Mtpy thermal coal mine near Vanggatfontein. The close proximity of the two mines means that Moabsvelden will benefit from shared infrastructure which Keaton Energy CEO, Mandi Glad, said was a “cut and paste”. It is envisaged that some four million tonnes a year in coal will be produced by the combined operations. The coal would be sold to Eskom and to the export market. One possible bidder for Keaton Energy is Coal of Africa (CoAL) which has stated on several occasions that it’s in the market for acquisitions in order to provide cash flow whilst it built its own projects. CoAL recently brought the curtain down on a A$126.4m bid for Universal Coal, which is listed in Australia, after it failed to secure a long-term coal contract with Eskom in time. Whilst a blow to CoAL’s fortunes, Brown said in September that the firm had resolved to continue looking for corporate opportunities. “The current company focus is to obtain a cash generating asset for the group,” he said in CoAL’s September quarter report.“This will allow the company access to sufficient funds over time to cover company overheads, pre-project development costs for the Makhado project, and all regulatory charges to ensure the continuation of full compliance on all current assets,” he said. Makhado is expected to cost several billions of rands to develop.“The increase in thermal and hard coking coal prices over the last quarter leaves the coal industry with a positive outlook and we are committed to maximising the benefit of this market for our shareholders,” said Brown. Brown declined to comment on Keaton’s announcement today. Shares in CoAL have, however, increased 13% taking its market capitalisation to about R1.1bn. Keaton would provide CoAL with both cash flow and growth potential. In addition to Moabsvelden, Keaton also owns the Braakfontein project which Glad said could produce between 1.5 to 2Mtpy.“But it is very far off in terms of development,” said Glad in an interview with Miningmx in June. “The focus is to get Moabsvelden up and running.”
The buzz
24 Nov 2016
Share Price Movement I noticed that there has been an sharp increase in the sell price today to nominally 3.41p. That is quite a jump. It's the AGM tomorrow - is something of interest going to be said I wonder?The coal price seems to be stabilising now, so there is no obvious clue there.The B
The buzz
16 Nov 2016
Nat-King-Coal recovery thought I suspect that a more favourable environment for coal in the USA will be met by existing coal mines in the USA. Albeit there might be less coal from the USA going onto the global market as a consequence. I suspect that the price of oil might be a key driver - judging by the recent fall in the price of oil and thermal coal. Who knows how well OPEC and Russia will ration supply - especially if the US and Russian relations are re-normalised again.I had been planning to go to the AGM, but sadly I will have to miss this one. If anyone does go, I would like to hear why buying a thermal coal mine near the top of the market is deemed to be a good idea, especially as CZA bought thermal mines before (Mooirplaats?) for precisely the same reason of having an income stream to finance the development of the coking coal mines.. and we all know what happened there!Again I am puzzled why the share price has not moved with the higher price of its quality coal. Is the threat of buying ino anoher mine he cause of this? I was talking to someone from S Africa yesterday who was saying that recently there have been some exceptonally heavy rain falls in the Johannesburg area - perhaps this might help with the water licenses??The B
nat-king-coal
16 Nov 2016
pro-coal Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election last week, and follows solid gains in thermal and coking coal prices this year. could this be the turning pointfor coal.
hedger123
28 Oct 2016
Re: Quarterly Progress Statement to 30.9.201... Thanks Buzz. I know previously they had hoped to get CGA nailed on by end of October. I spoke with DB last week and said they were working flat out working towards an end of November deadline. Naturally if terms are agreed then have to be announced immediately. He seemed bullish. Hopefully I'll get to AGM too. Maybe news by then!
The buzz
28 Oct 2016
Quarterly Progress Statement to 30.9.2016 Still waiting for the Makhado Integrated Water License - things runs at their own pace in SA! I know that water is a real issue having been to SA a couple of months ago with some area in the Kruger National Park - at that time - suffering from severe drought. I believe that since then there has been some rainfall, but I can understand the sensitivity of the issue. However, the Limpopo River region is a different area so hopefully things can be resolved quickly. I did note that the validity of the Environmental Authority has been extended by 5 years.Now it might be a consequence of the rise in the price of coal, but there were a couple of key sentences in the statement:-"The Company has made significant progress in the identification of possible cash generating assets."Ro Mooiplaats - "During the current quarter the Company continued discussions with potential purchasers and is assessing various options regarding a transaction at the colliery. Interested parties are in various stages of the due diligence process"I read this as saying that Mooiplaats could be sold soon. Does the former statement reflect previous rumours that CZA might be taking an interest in a producing coal mine?? I hope to go the the AGM - so I might be able to explore that point further.The B
