cooperboy
16 Mar 2018
trading again? does anybody have any perception as to when shares might start trading again? other than pure speculation i mean. presumably some sort of payment deal can be arranged with the IR fairly quickly. but if there is a need for a rights issue that will be more complex.also if the shares are not trading then what price would the rights issue be at as its usually a discount to market price but noone knows what that market price is?or would they just privately off the new shares to a couple of financial institutions leaving the PIs to nurse heavy losses as usual?
Bill1703
16 Mar 2018
Re: jokers "Anyway today’s numbers kind of confirms what we thought most likely. Short term support, a Pwc review of the financials to ensure no other nasties followed by a heavily discounted rights issue/placing to repair balance sheet. I’m guessing here but I’d imagine in the 40-50p range..."Yes, for the most part, all fairly predictable and designed to calm a few nerves, I am sure.But I did hope they could avoid an immediate equity raise - suggesting, as per previous posts, that the extension of the PwC remit and ongoing "discussions" with bankers have indeed turned to the outlook for next year and the likely conclusion that covenants will be breached. Because this is going to be difficult indeed - basically, you have one bunch (Investec) with shot credibility, asking for new capital to trust to another bunch (CVR management) with shot credibility...The guys at the major shareholders are ultimately little different from most of us on here... so all shareholders on here should consider the question, how would you respond to the call from your man at Investec? If at all... letting it go to voicemail might be the safest option. It will be incredibly expensive, the holders will demand a high price in other areas (eg. wholesale personnel change) to even consider it... and I very much fear that the mooted 40-50p will NOT be deeply discounted, or any discount at all, to where the SP would now be if not currently suspended...It might not even prove doable... Given CVR is merely an amalgam of several hitherto relatively decent businesses assembled in haste, it is possible some holders will judge that they'll get better value in a swift execution, a full and formal admistration followed by the winding up of whatever CVR is (or was) and the orderly sale of the constuent parts.All of this, increasingly, invokes the old proverb... for want of a nail, the whole kingdom was lost. Maybe not... not quite yet. But expect further announcement(s), on board changes (executive and non-exec), as Investec gets to work...
TX2
16 Mar 2018
Re: Finding requirements Any chance of finding some cheap (full) bottles of cider or is it cyder hidden amongst the unpaid bills?
seadoc
16 Mar 2018
Re: Finding requirements funding requirements perhaps?pot kettle black?Regards,Seadoc
Ripley94
16 Mar 2018
Re: Administration? This will be interesting to keep an eye on.
Bill1703
16 Mar 2018
Re: Finding requirements "Today they release an important RNS with a spelling mistake. This is definitely a case of 'you cannot get the staff'..."It is, of course, debatable whether it's a spelling mistake at all... I think one of the more urgent tasks for PwC is indeed to look at "future finding requirements", given the literally incredible rate at which they have been "finding" previously hidden things over these past few days and hours...
Hugh Betcher
16 Mar 2018
Re: jokers It's hardly "quite unique" for there to be big name institutional investors on the share register of a company which gets into trouble. In fact it would be quite unique if they weren't. Don't forget that in the past we have had companies go bust which were in the FTSE 100 (Polly Peck, B&C etc).But your point about possible deliberate misrepresentation is well made. However, just because an exec buys shares does not prove they are not culpable - don't forget Nadir was buying shares in Polly Peck when it was raided by the SFO and Maxwell played similar games before going for the ultimate late night dip.
oilovlam
16 Mar 2018
Finding requirements What sort of management do AIM companies have? They must be run by charlatans or nitwits.First of all they forget that they have to pay £30m tax.....or did they just 'forget' to register the business off-shore? Today they release an important RNS with a spelling mistake. This is definitely a case of 'you cannot get the staff'.Charlatans or nitwits? Or a bit of both....Charlawits!!
Meanbugger
16 Mar 2018
Re: jokers It's quite fitting that in the week that Stephen Hawking sadly passed away that PwC are now looking for black holes in the Conviviality accounts. Hopefully the extent of most of the bad news has already been found and announced.Investec as NOMAD and broker to the company have a massive credibility issue here and they need to protect their reputation. They are also NOMAD and broker to Fevertree Drinks which they would risk losing if Conviviality were to collapse. I understand Investec are pulling out all the stops to ensure that Conviviality will survive.My guess is that PwC won't find anything horrific but they will question some of the accounting treatment regarding customer ordering and sales and will suggest more conservative treatment should be used which may need the previous year's accounts to be restated. This is what accountants do when they investigate. The fact that CVR has run out of cash despite being 'profitable' suggests to me that there might have been advance booking of profits. Or it may simply have been over-trading on too small a capital base. As long as it's nothing worse than this the problems should be fixable with a sizeable cash injection.
Courtier1
16 Mar 2018
Re: jokers The tax bill wasn’t unexpected it was just not put in the cash flow forecast!!! Presumably that’s why the year end net debt numbers didn’t change.Not a whole lot better, granted.......Anyway today’s numbers kind of confirms what we thought most likely. Short term support, a Pwc review of the financials to ensure no other nasties followed by a heavily discounted rights issue/placing to repair balance sheet. I’m guessing here but I’d imagine in the 40-50p range
valeite
15 Mar 2018
Re: jokers all true Hugh but there must be more to this story than we know .yes we've been conned but so have the CEO /CFO having ,only days ago , bought shares .i'd like to see if anybody has been shorting these because the share price has been on a gradual pull back for weeks .also I've been checking out which of my funds have CVR in the portfolio and I can tell you quite a few of the best smaller co's funds have at least 2% of the funds invested here .top draw managers have come unstuck here .this is quite unique in my experience . let's hope Bill is right in his appraisal that all may not be lost here .the only lesson I can take from this experience is to continue to sell off my individual shares I hold and put the brass in really boring investment trusts like Witan . boring looks quite attractive .
Hugh Betcher
15 Mar 2018
jokers Happy to say I've never owned shares in this shambles. How can a £30m tax bill be 'unexpected' if you have effective financial controls? Or even any controls?How can a spreadsheet error on a truly material sum go unnoticed? Bunch of jokers all of whom (and I really mean ALL) should be dismissed if this company survives.
TX2
15 Mar 2018
Re: Administration? I think it would be prudent to raise additional working capital via an open offer to shareholders as I feel the company is over geared financially;but providing there are no further significant horror stories to be revealed administration is unlikely simply because the enterprise value of the businesses owned by the holding company are worth well in excess of the tax bill even after taking bank debt into account.Trade debt is more or less balanced by stock & payments due from customers.
Bill1703
15 Mar 2018
Re: Administration? "... will have to cover the £30m tax bill plus what the bank lenders want their loans reduced by plus all the supplier invoices that will have mysteriously appeared. IMO the total will be too great and administration will happen on Sunday."Assuming no further nasties to be uncovered - and amazingly, there's been no new "update" for very nearly a whole day now - then I see neither formal administration nor an emergency rights issue as necessarily inevitable here. (Though I caveat that with my earlier point about the PwC engagement as being tantamount to an informal "mini" administration).On this basis, they will be comfortably enough within covenant leverage at the year end (the £150m net debt forecast evidently includes the £30m tax bill), and with PwC's help, I'd have thought further credit financing will be forthcoming - albeit a bit more expensive than if they'd arranged it in advance, in the ordinary course of treasury management. Whether they say within covenants into next FY is another matter - probably dependant on the margin outlook. But if things are looking tight, they should have a bit of time to address this - via cost savings, possible disposals and/or, if absolutely necessary, an equity raise on a slightly more orderly basis than an immediate one now would be. But I don't think the latter is, as yet, a given.However, it seems likely that having cancelled the interim dividend, they'll drop the whole FY payout - which itself will save some £23m pa in cash.
relaxtwotribes
15 Mar 2018
Re: Administration? The amount of money needed to be raised will have to cover the £30m tax bill plus what the bank lenders want their loans reduced by plus all the supplier invoices that will have mysteriously appeared. IMO the total will be too great and administration will happen on Sunday.
