malj1
16 May 2018
Re: Trading update -again Well you have to laugh. Read the TW capital day IMS & especially the presentation. In short TW are planning to reduce the short tem l/b cover from ca 5.1 yrs down to ca 4 yrs. This a/ dramatically raises ROCE (no surprise Sherlock – this has always been the ultimate goal) making them wildly cash generative thus b/ enabling TW to raise their DY ca +20% yoy (which they have committed to).All the builders are variations on a theme. CRN have ca 5.5 yrs short term l/b cover. A similar move would enable them to raise DY to a level at current price equating to a nigh on 10% yield!Further TW are planning to migrate the sl/b to upweight large sites / London & SE. Er ............... why would they be doing that if the top end market is perma shut?!Mr Mkt = no joined up thinking?
malj1
16 May 2018
Re: Trading update This looks to be largely one off issues in context of a solid market (see the TW IMS y'day & today's Times review) Consequently the 2020 t/o target £1.4bn scaled down marginally (-5%) to ca £1.33bn. Achieving what’s required in unit sales (good), asp’s flat (pretty much what I expected), but margin down. Margin essentially reduced as a the housing market becomes bifurcated – sub asp £600k (the h2b threshold) all fine, but above this transactions increasingly aren’t happening (lack of confidence + the SD etc hit).For CRN the asp / margin issue arises due to a/ exiting central London; b/ rolling out into central & the midlands (thus diluting asp); c/ the upper market being stalled necessitating increased use of incentives to shift units (though interestingly pure price points are solid); d/some increased price competition within this segment & areas. The above looks largely one off step change/reduction. But it has a major impact. Looking at the land GDV end A18 £5960m, this breaks down as follows. units ca 90% sub £600k & 3% plus £1m by asp. £ ca 70% sub £600k & ca 25% plus £1m by asp.The prospective dy is almost 9%. So I will hold & suck it up! Interestingly they're starting to think about bb's. With a decade+ in the l/b they don't need to ramp this up & so will have plenty spare cash. At some point the upper market reopens. Then it’s game on – as ever I just don’t know when!
Gooffy
16 May 2018
Re: Trading update They have set up a new operation in the midlands bound to have affected profits.Annoyed at CEO though, no mention of divi in update phoned company to ask them to confirm its 2 x ebita and peel hunt would have downgraded had it not been maintained.CEO still has substantial holding though
schwee
16 May 2018
Re: Trading update GooffyGood luck with that.Am a bit surprised that the other house builders share prices have not been too affected by this profit warning.
Greyinvestor
16 May 2018
Topped up Topped up today. Yes, housing market wobbling but these shares are seriously cheap.
Gooffy
16 May 2018
Trading update Tad over done me thinks though I did notice no comment on divi in trading update though last year it mentioned it, guidance is the same so it should be similar for interim.I had 300 and now have 500, one of my very small holdings for income as don't like small companies.Phoned company to mention no divi information given in update and asking for RNS to confirm what it will be
malj1
23 Apr 2018
Re: Stone There's only ever one reason for buying, but can be many reasons for selling. Dirs have legally v ltd time windows when they are allowed to sell. Start Apr he owned ca 3.8m sh & so has sold ca 6.5% of his total holding.
gamesinvestor
23 Apr 2018
Stone [link] like a low price to offload - average 482pGames
noidea1960
19 Mar 2018
Re: Whats causing crash?? but stay in this one as it will come good.....
noidea1960
19 Mar 2018
Re: Whats causing crash?? I bought in is causing the crash.......I buy you short and you share the profit with me.....that way we break even and waste both our time. I backed Teresa May at the last election, I backed Chariot Oil and Gas all the way unto 23p (now 13p), I backed Up Global catching a falling knife, I backed Mercantile Ports (down 95%) and a few other losers. I sold a few other losers last year only to see them go up five fold. I'm still smiling............just.......so don't worry as there is always someone feeling more sick than you :/
Gooffy
19 Mar 2018
Perhaps The directors would like to buy back in at the cheaper price.Finance director needs to give them a kicking he bought above 5 pounds.
malj1
19 Mar 2018
Re: Whats causing crash?? Arguably Berk are simply stating the obvious. The gov't has targeted lifting new build supply from ca 200k pa (at the moment in the UK) to ca 300k. If you want to jump output in one of the major parts of the economy & the most labour intensive by +50% then this begs a few questions.Where does the money for land buying come from? This will require industry investment of £100bn (double the amount the gov't paid to recapitalise the UK banks) on land alone.Where does the (skilled) labour come from? This will require ca 1.7m workers. Answer - not without permanent immigrants - who will also require housing whilst building your home!Where do the materials come from. The supply industry has never supplied for more than 190k units pa over the last 35 years. There is no excess capacity.How will the planning system cope? This is already the biggest bottleneck & wildly dysfunctional. No one gets a quart out of a pint pot.So Pidgeley is stating the obvious. New build supply will stall @ 200k units pa for the foreseeable future, whilst demographic need relentlessly rises. This implies more pricing pressure.
Baker2005
17 Mar 2018
Re: Whats causing crash?? To correct my earlier post. BKG are not putting any developments on hold, but they are saying they are not able to increase from current level due to difficulty of market conditions. I believe it was the 5% fall in line h BKG share price that caused a drop to CRST and others in the sector.
Baker2005
17 Mar 2018
Re: Whats causing crash?? For unflattering read over inflated. (Damned auto correct!)
Baker2005
17 Mar 2018
Re: Whats causing crash?? Probably related to Berkely homes announcing on Friday that it was putting some London and South East developments on hold due to market conditions. I think the cross over read to Crest is unwarranted. BKG are right at the high end with muli million pound luxury apartments etc in what is an over unflattering London market. Crest focus on high quality family/executive homes around the South East for which demand is fairly constant IMO.
