azzalyzarc
22 Feb 2018
Re: Surprise to the upside I am a long term holder of both brci and cyn. I view them as complementary rather than alternatives. Brci is mainly the big players and ‘low’ risk for a comm trust trading at small disc or par. Cyn is in a wider range of smaller cos and typically 15%+ disc. Both offer a good income to ride the ups and downs of comms and give some coverage across the sector for followers of the long term story Both still a long term hold and relatively good prices imho Az
FRTEB
22 Feb 2018
Re: Surprise to the upside For anyone interested, CYN is a good alternative to BRCI.
marktime1231
21 Feb 2018
Surprise to the upside "Glencore surprises with larger dividend"2 x 20c dividends 2018 compared to 2 x 3.5c in 2017.Welcome.A surprise to everyone except BRCI perhaps, well-informed stake buying in recent months (in the face of DRC copper mining risks). Do the managers know what they are doing after all?More capital investment with the surplus cash to enhance NAV or a better dividend ... my bet pro tem is still the former, small investor clamour for the latter carries little weight ... but of all the problems to have this is a nice one.
whilstev
20 Feb 2018
Re: Update signal Agree the scope for a dividend rise is increasing every quarter. Think a rise to 4.5 p would be well affordable by this time next year.
marktime1231
20 Feb 2018
Re: Update signal So is that what they mean, BHP up the half way dividend from 40c to 55c and signal more to come but the stock slips by $1, despite "solid" underlying performance. Which will undermine (hah!) BRCI's NAV but put more income at its disposal.Actually I think the market has been a bit harsh, BHP have had to pay for the Brazil dam disaster and Trump tax adjustment, productivity needs to improve but commodity markets are much stronger year on year, my view 1550-1600p is fair value.Rio is off today in sympathy (actually lower commodity prices) but looks a better bet at 4000p in terms of business performance and this year's final dividend up from 125c to 180c, fair value 4300-4400p in my view.The good news is that BRCI has large chunks of both (and Glencore for some reason) and will indeed be enjoying better income .... aaaagh why can't you just say that instead of garbage like "upside surprise".The question remains what BRCI intend to do with it. Not quite enough cash in the pot for an increased dividend this time round folks, we will find that out for sure in three week's time, but my feeling is the closed up discount is anticipating ahead of time ... we might have to wait two more quarters yet.
marktime1231
14 Feb 2018
Update signal from the management team on Valentine's Day"We expect a strong reporting season in the coming weeks and are optimistic that dividend announcements, especially for the mining companies, will surprise to the upside."I think they mean extra income from the underlying stocks rather than BRCI deciding to step their own dividend payment up a notch, but investors hoping one would lead to the other. So BRCI has surged to .... drum roll ... a small premium!Returning confidence in global markets and stronger oil would see us back in the 80's. I can't imagine BRCI managers will allow even a small premium to last long, they are keen to expand the size of the fund and will be introducing new stock at every opportunity.
marktime1231
19 Jan 2018
Re: Resolution The sell price rises to 81.6p while NAV shades down to 84.6p ... has there been another rebuy into Treasury I wonder, are oil and copper prices settling down or is there still more to come?Not sure, so I have sold some of the stock bought last year at 70-78p and will look for returns elsewhere. I will keep the rest of my BRCI holdings for now, in case the commodities market has another surge in it, or just in case there is a better dividend in the offing.
marktime1231
15 Jan 2018
Re: Treasury Shares Quite, shares could have been hoovered up for 75p a month ago when NAV was around 82p at which stage I was getting so hot under the collar, but the board decided not to run a formal rebuy tender. Now they have decided to go ahead with discretionary purchase into Treasury.The effect was startling ... a 2p spike in sp on Friday narrowing down the discount, but which has opened up again ... showing the power of the rebuy. It also shows confidence that progress in value has further to run?I will resist the temptation to try and read in to why BRCI have done this out of the blue, but it is welcome so more of the same please.
fabrav
12 Jan 2018
Treasury Shares Why would we now buy back shares, given the increase in SP?Would it now have made sense when SP was much lower?
marktime1231
02 Jan 2018
Resolution Well actually not much choice. Dare I say it the equivalent funds and trusts on offer are even worse ... not much to choose from, equally poor performance and even more outrageous charges.The best alternative would be to self-select a bunch of commodity stocks and try and out-perform BRCI, which is made extra difficult when BRCI is now trading on a 9% discount. Some of the diversity of BRCI holdings would be hard to replicate ... eg debt in First Quantum with a 7.5% coupon.My quick approach would be to construct a porfolio of 10 stocks split between global Oil (3-4), diversified Mining (3-4), Gold (1-2) and "random" (0-1) the latter intended to allow the inclusion of a smaller company or alternative commodity like essences. I have played with a shadow portfolio featuring stock selections like Shell, BP, Exxon, Rio, BHP, FM, CRDA and run a comparison with BRCI since the pick up started last Summer. The results are plain. (With the benefit of hindsight) you can pick a portfolio of commodity stocks with super growth, far better than the 8% from BRCI. Unfortunately income is barely 4% compared to the 5.7% from BRCI if you had invested at 70p in July. You can beat the overall returns but you cannot replicate the natural yield. My resolutions for 2018 include not moaning so much about BRCI. I will trim my positions when the sp hits the right level, and I will stop second guessing when the dividend will be restored.
marktime1231
22 Dec 2017
Twang - do we have a choice There we go, NAV of about 80p but trading at about 74p so the discount has indeed twanged back open to 8% ... the ONLY reason it closed was a hope that the board would up the dividend or run a buy back. The rotters continue to take 1.4% pa in charges while sticking two fingers up at investors.BRCI has momentum though, the underlying stocks are in good shape while copper and oil prices enjoy three-year highs.Which makes me feel like I could do better ... what is the alternative, pick your own or is there a non-Bleakrock trust? There could be my Christmas homework.
marktime1231
12 Dec 2017
Re: Narrowing discount? The rat bags.Dividend held at 1p per quarter despite a steadily growing pile of spare cash.yet again the buy back has been rejected despite a discount which has at times widened as far as 9% ... the excuse being that it has closed itself more recently (possibly in the unsatisfied expectation of restored dividend and/or buy back). And the fee-hungry manager does not want to "shrink" the size of their take "in the interest of sharedholders". Ahem, hardly.Clearly BRCI are in this for themselves in disregard of their investors and consider their own interests to rank above the stated objectives of the trust eg to return income to shareholders and to maintain a narrow discount.In theory the discount should expand on this gloomy news ... having narrowed down to 2-3% it might open out again to 7-9% ... and any fear of a weakening in commodity markets could mean we see people selling in a hurry. I don't know if that amounts to a Sell signal, but I will not be rebuying my stake soon if at all.
marktime1231
01 Dec 2017
Oh Olivia Still watching this closely but I cannot call what is coming next, maybe the strengthening GBP is confusing things. Oil is up again above $63 but gold and copper are settled lower and have lost recent signs of demand.NAV has definitely drifted back from nudging 82p to under 77p again, but the BRCI sp is holding up 74-75p and the discount is for sure narrower eg from 7% to about 3% (there is such a buy-sell spread it is hard to be exact). I was hedging for a rebuy opportunity below 73p before the next ex-div but no chance so far.Surely narrower discount is nothing to do with the incomprehensible guff from Olivia Markham in an interview the other day (sorry lost the reference, an email from citywire or similar), where she tries but fails to explain why BRCI has been in or out of oil or minerals at the wrong times.She was I think trying to point towards a hidden discount in underlying oil stocks, eg Shell, BP and Exxon share prices do not yet reflect oil at $63+ and oil is still what makes the wheels go round, but she does not make herself clear on her investment decisions or her outlook. Peculiar non-speak phrases. Get the feeling she is one of those nerdy types face-in-a-screen for 19 hours a day, believing in her analytic forecasting but forgetting to look out of the window to see if it is raining.No comment on the yo-yo discount, nor why there was no buy back, nor why they have not restored dividend from 4p to .., despite cash to spare. I remain in the hope that the BRCI team remind themselves of what the I in BRCI stands for all the while charging a whopping 1.4%.Up the next pay out you greedy b***ers.Except I am now less hopeful for an early dividend increase or a buy back. In which case watch the discount twang back to 7%+.
marktime1231
22 Nov 2017
Narrowing discount? No clear picture but I wonder if we have started to see the discount on BRCI beginning to narrow in natural expectation of either a restored dividend to 5p or the option of up to 20% buy back in the New Year which would be at just a 2% discount to NAV.NAV hit 81p+ recently while the sp trailed around 76p on a discount of 7%.NAV has shrunk back to 77-78p I think driven by a cyclic cooling in the market price of copper and volatile confidence in China growth. Oil and gold prices are holding up. But discount to NAV has narrowed sharply to 2-3% while the sp holds up at 75p.Two scenarios ... 1) NAV resumes progress towards 83p and sp tracks; else2) NAV settles around 76-77p, the discount widens and sp dips back to <73pNot sure which to call. So I have hedged and sold some at 76p which I accumulated in the Summer, for a modest capital gain and to reduce what has been an over-exposure while enjoying the dividend stream. To rebuy on a sp dip.
marktime1231
09 Aug 2017
Happy to disagree Good points well made.For me this is absolutely NOT a stock for which total return is the consideration; it is a bond-proxy pure income stock which is going to fund my retirement plan yielding 6%+ even if I just get back my original stake. With the odd speculative play buying low and selling high. I would be perfectly happy if the sp spent the next 20 years crawling back to 80p, all they have to do is close the discount.The management team can certainly do better, but they do not control the underlying commodity market prices which drive this stock. At the moment that is down to China-led global growth, and the Saudi-US tussle over oil prices.Clearly this is not a stock for you if you also want impressive NAV growth - in which case go for an income AND growth trust like Seneca Global, the clue is in the name.
