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shugg1e 17 Nov 2017

Re: Waited long enough Better than tiouching cloth if you know what i meanLol

Hardboy 17 Nov 2017

Re: SFO case Apologies for the sell sign - no idea how it got there - for the record I have no view till the SFO case gets cleared (& I don't see how anyone can have.)

Hardboy 17 Nov 2017

Re: SFO case If arrests are being made, that is good news, because it means the SFO are wrapping up the case, and the end is in sight. Markets hate uncertainty, and the culmination of the case will remove that. I doubt the outcome will give Petrofac a clean slate - but prosecutions will be made, fines will be paid, and the uncertainty will be removed.

SpeederD 17 Nov 2017

Re: SFO case There won't be an equity raise as part of a defence against an offer.Let's say some someone offers a bid for 500p.PFC announce to raise equity at say 350p. Hedge funds buy in and take the rights issue and then as soon as the offer is made agree to sell PFC shares at 500p for quick and easy profit. What would they then do with the cash raised? Pay off debtholders? They dont make decisions on the M&A (assuming the debt will be bought out). BUy someting? Buy what? Do what with it?So it does't make any strategic sense. In addition equity dilution would punish existing shareholders without need, when as someone else said they only need to withhold the dividend - you dont pay dividends and then dilute shareholders.Lastly, don't forget who the largest shareholder is - he's not going to hurt himself financially and then accelerate the sale of his company.

Hub 17 Nov 2017

Re: SFO case Yes will be interesting to see whether any Stella rev gets booked. I'm sure Delek would be willing to purchase PFC's share should PFC fancy a lump some of cash. Something to remember for the future?In terms of the city, they are either too busy shorting PFC or buying up companies like BP and Shell to 3 year highs.Shell are or were trading at levels last seen when PoO was $100pb+. How the city justify this or some of the fluff across the FTSE100 blue chips is anyones guess. It has more to do with easy QE low cost funds handed to them which they gratefully and happily invest in FTSE100 commodity focussed stocks rather than ftse250 or 350. Double whammy as it boosts the FTSE100 index in the process.Here's one for you... as many know Glencore are large company with many fingers in many pies in the commodity sector. If you look at short positions across the sector, none have been taken out on Glencore for months (above 0.5%). Seem odd to you?Better not to pi55 on ones own shoes I think is the term.Ignore the city, they are not the first to know and often the last to react these days. PFC's Oman deal was a classic example of this.Overall, it's such an algo botted casino these days, there is little point trying to understand the illogical.HUB

MaxValue 17 Nov 2017

Re: SFO case HubMaybe you're right and the pull back had in part to do with the drop in brent. But I'm not sure, the city always knows before we do and thats why a significant movement before news is always related in my view - the sp hadn't fallen below 400 for some time.Re the update you mention, I'd be looking to see if they have finally been put on the Stella license so they can start to generate revenue from there, but ultimately any rerate will depend on the SFO investigation. Crazy though it seems there is a reason the sp is where it is - why aren't the city buying?GL, DYORMV

MaxValue 17 Nov 2017

Re: SFO case VeksiI think you're misunderstanding the point, I'd suggest you look back through the thread for clarity.To help, regarding the bid news in the press, I think there are 2 points worth noting:1) its said there are companies running their numbers over PFC - though interesting not ready to make a bid2) its also said that PFC are readying its defence against a bidThe question therefore is what would PFC do to ensure it isn't taken over at its current valuation - i.e. what is their defence strategy?I've suggested and explained why an equity raise could be part of that strategy to repel any unwelcome boarders. Obviously this hasn't sat well with you so what would you suggest? What are PFC doing when they say they are preparing a defence?GL, DYORMV

lizardtongue 17 Nov 2017

Waited long enough Just banged sizable amount in here.Take overs rumours @ £6.00 a share and price targets of £5.40Touching wood and all that.GLALT

lizardtongue 17 Nov 2017

Waited long enough Just banged sizable amount in here.Take overs rumours @ £6.00 a share and price targets of £5.40Touching wood and all that.GLALT

Hub 17 Nov 2017

Re: SFO case MaxValue,PFC are being shorted by the same ilk as that on Tullow et al. The share price machinations are just markets bots and algo's doing the daily business.PoO topped off (temp profit taking) at $65pb ish on Brent and aligned to this Tullow was cica 200p+ and PFC as you say 440's ish.PoO's recent dip back to $61pb (brent) saw a number of oil comanies drop by 10% or so. Tullow back to 170p, PFC down to 390's and even BP losing a wedge too.It's got nothing to do with SFO news.500p off PFC's share price has everything to do with SFO news.In terms of sentiment towards PFC, I agree this has weakened over the last 3 to 4 months due to the $1bln debt pile. If in Dec they confirm this is back to $500m or $600m debt, I think the market will rerate. Combine this with TA whispers and hey presto you have a platform for breaking 500p+.HUBnb. still plenty risk involved so caution always required

veksi 17 Nov 2017

Re: SFO case MV equity raise is total nonsense and you know it.If PFC needs cash all they need to do is stop paying divi.But if u missed it - divi was already chopped a bit so please getyour facts in some logic please. Pfc still affords to pay 60% of old divi very easily.

MaxValue 17 Nov 2017

Re: SFO case HubI think its interesting to look at how the sp has moved over the last few days:Over 450 as oil moved higher then a sudden collapse to below 400 (10-15% drop). so what happened? I think its reasonable to assume the drop was related to this SFO update - someone must have known it was on the cards and started bailing.Then what happened - well the breach was stopped - we had the press reports that bidders are circling.Can it really be coincidental that we had the bidders appearing at the same time as the SFO charges?Ultimately we'll only know the truth when instead of press reports we get RNS's confirming an approach - or a denial.So we need PFC to issue an RNS if an approach has been made or the companies mentioned to confirm their interest. If we get that I'd think the sp will fly. Of course if we get nothing the recent upswing will turn and if we get a denial I think its possible the sp will easily breach 400 and maybe test the lows.In terms of the second half being the stronger half - I agree that was mentioned in the interims, lets hope they deliver - anything short will add to the downward pressure.GL, DYORMV

Hub 17 Nov 2017

Re: SFO case Like watching a herd of bufflo trying to get through a single door.Shorters getting stretched to point of capitulation soon after taking out more weights over last few weeks.It's going to hurt a few. Last time they got spanked was OMAN news. Some were wiped out on that move.HUB

Hub 17 Nov 2017

Re: SFO case MaxValue,The debt is not an issue. The company has already told you that H2 is heavily weighted to sales and debt reduction.The SFO worst case scenario is priced in already.There are a massive amount of shorts in play which will be crucified should someone make an offer for PFC at 600p+ levels.PoO is recovering. Saudi's want Aramco float in 2018. US shale struggling to find new funding.The list goes on.It's good to see difference in opinion so lets see how this plays out.You seem to be suggesting that you feel a trip back to 370's is in order if I am correct? If not, let me know where you think it better valued and we can base it from there.Remember, this is PFC's strongest half and a trading update is due post Nov 30th Opec meeting - Dec 14th I believe.HUB

MaxValue 17 Nov 2017

Re: SFO case Hub a rough and ready example of this would be:Say the market cap was 500mAnd the debt is 1bnThe purchaser would need to pay 500m + % premiumThey would take on the debt (which its reasonable to assume would be easier for them to manage and service hence their bid).If the company raises 1bn and pays off the debt the market cap would be 1.5bnOf course the number of shares would increase and the sp would fall significantly but the purchaser would now have to pay 1.5bn + % premuimThis extra immediate cost makes the company less attractive.Just my thoughtsGLA, DYORMV

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